🐻⬇️🏀

Pace

Also known as: Pace
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 833 (#495) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 893 (#441) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 805 (#671) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -8.5 (#242) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -6.3 (#457) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.448 (#380) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -8.3 More → 0.248 (#348) NetEff -8.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.2 More → 0.410 (#440) AdjNet -3.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -2.8 More → 0.420 (#439) AdjNet -2.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.2 | AdjD 60.5 More → 0.471 (#434) AdjO 59.2 | AdjD 60.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 55.4 | AdjD 60.9 More → 0.379 (#552) AdjO 55.4 | AdjD 60.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.274 (#543) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.279 (#548) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 23 More → 797 (#474) RD 97 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ Army West Point L 50 - 86
2025-11-14 vs Dominican (NY) W 68 - 65
2025-11-15 vs Caldwell L 36 - 49
2025-11-19 vs Franklin Pierce W 79 - 52
2025-11-22 vs Mercy W 58 - 45
2025-11-25 vs Molloy W 75 - 62
2025-11-29 @ Felician L 37 - 73
2025-12-03 vs Assumption L 40 - 54
2025-12-06 @ American Int'l L 67 - 88
2025-12-13 vs Adelphi L 47 - 55
2025-12-16 vs Bridgeport L 53 - 62
2025-12-20 vs Staten Island L 65 - 72
2026-01-02 @ St. Thomas Aquinas W 58 - 45
2026-01-10 @ Saint Anselm L 58 - 68
2026-01-13 @ Adelphi W 62 - 51
2026-01-17 vs Saint Michael's L 44 - 59
2026-01-21 vs Bentley L 49 - 50
2026-01-24 @ Southern N.H. L 60 - 65
2026-01-28 vs American Int'l L 50 - 67
2026-01-31 @ Franklin Pierce L 46 - 54
2026-02-04 @ Southern Conn. St. L 56 - 69
2026-02-07 vs Saint Anselm L 55 - 65

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ciara Collins - 22 34.8 16.5 5.7 1.7 1.5 0.8 3.0 14.5 8.8 -1 -0.0 -0.2 41.1 33.7 87.5 -0.26 51.2 45.9
Anisa Akinola - 22 31.7 11.2 6.7 1.7 1.8 0.2 2.6 10.8 8.2 -66 -3.0 -11.0 37.8 29.9 76.7 -0.36 46.5 42.0
Grace Ziogas - 22 29.7 7.5 2.6 1.8 0.8 0.4 2.1 7.6 3.4 -47 -2.0 -10.0 38.3 31.7 71.4 -1.68 48.8 48.2
Morgan Ryan - 14 22.0 6.2 2.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 1.5 7.1 1.9 8 0.5 8.6 28.0 27.5 70.6 0.51 40.5 37.5
Cali Chiocchi - 22 31.1 5.7 5.9 2.6 1.1 0.5 2.3 5.5 8.0 -50 -2.1 -8.5 41.0 29.4 59.3 0.15 47.1 45.1
LyNeta Brand - 21 19.1 4.0 3.3 1.2 0.5 0.7 1.5 3.5 4.6 -35 -1.7 -9.8 41.9 28.6 70.4 0.6 48.3 43.2
Claire Fitzpatrick - 17 11.1 3.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.7 3.0 1.2 -27 -1.8 -11.0 37.3 45.2 40.0 -1.71 50.5 51.0
Ciera Cevallos - 21 19.5 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.9 0.0 1.4 3.4 2.7 -9 -0.4 -3.4 28.2 16.7 68.0 0.9 37.8 31.7
Mari Lee - 1 22.8 2.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 109 5.5 43.0 33.3 0 0 0.28 33.3 33.3
Jaylyn Chorba - 20 12.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.8 -51 -2.5 -25.3 19.4 18.8 83.3 -0.45 29.7 24.2
Nina Marshall - 6 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.3 -3 -0.6 -144.0 0 0 100.0 -0.02 113.6 0
Allison Twible - 1 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG