🐻⬇️🏀

Pace

Also known as: Pace
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 731 (#521) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 833 (#481) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 805 (#671) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → -7.6 (#290) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -6.3 (#457) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.448 (#380) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -8.3 More → 0.248 (#348) NetEff -8.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.2 More → 0.410 (#440) AdjNet -3.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -2.8 More → 0.420 (#439) AdjNet -2.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.2 | AdjD 60.5 More → 0.471 (#434) AdjO 59.2 | AdjD 60.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 55.4 | AdjD 60.9 More → 0.379 (#552) AdjO 55.4 | AdjD 60.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.274 (#543) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.278 (#548) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 23 More → 792 (#463) RD 97 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ Army West Point - Incomplete score
2025-11-14 vs Dominican (NY) - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 vs Caldwell - Incomplete score
2025-11-19 vs Franklin Pierce - Incomplete score
2025-11-22 vs Mercy - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 vs Molloy - Incomplete score
2025-11-29 @ Felician - Incomplete score
2025-12-03 vs Assumption - Incomplete score
2025-12-06 @ American Int'l - Incomplete score
2025-12-13 vs Adelphi - Incomplete score
2025-12-16 vs Bridgeport - Incomplete score
2025-12-20 vs Staten Island - Incomplete score
2026-01-02 @ St. Thomas Aquinas - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 @ Saint Anselm - Incomplete score
2026-01-13 @ Adelphi - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 vs Saint Michael's - Incomplete score
2026-01-21 vs Bentley - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Southern N.H. - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 vs American Int'l - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 @ Franklin Pierce - Incomplete score
2026-02-04 @ Southern Conn. St. - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs Saint Anselm - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ciara Collins - 21 34.8 16.3 6.0 1.7 1.5 0.8 3.0 14.6 8.7 -1 -0.0 -0.2 40.2 32.2 87.2 3.61 50.4 44.9
Anisa Akinola - 21 31.9 11.3 6.8 1.8 1.9 0.2 2.7 10.9 8.4 -66 -3.0 -11.0 38.4 28.8 76.8 -2.16 46.9 42.6
Grace Ziogas - 21 29.4 7.7 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.4 2.0 7.6 3.5 -47 -2.0 -10.0 38.8 32.7 71.4 -1.19 49.7 49.1
Morgan Ryan - 13 22.4 6.3 2.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 1.3 7.3 2.1 8 0.5 8.6 27.4 26.9 70.6 3.13 40.0 36.8
Cali Chiocchi - 21 31.1 5.8 6.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 2.3 5.6 8.3 -50 -2.1 -8.5 40.7 28.1 59.3 -0.2 46.6 44.5
LyNeta Brand - 21 19.1 4.0 3.3 1.2 0.5 0.7 1.5 3.5 4.6 -35 -1.7 -9.8 41.9 28.6 70.4 -2.04 48.3 43.2
Claire Fitzpatrick - 16 11.7 3.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 3.2 1.2 -27 -1.8 -11.0 37.3 45.2 40.0 -0.41 50.5 51.0
Ciera Cevallos - 20 19.5 2.8 2.5 1.3 0.9 0.0 1.4 3.3 2.8 -9 -0.4 -3.4 27.3 17.2 65.2 -0.5 36.8 31.1
Jaylyn Chorba - 19 12.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.9 -51 -2.5 -25.3 20.0 20.0 83.3 -2.03 30.6 25.0
Nina Marshall - 5 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.6 -3 -0.6 -144.0 0 0 100.0 - 113.6 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG