Ozarks (AR)
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 939 (#371) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 961 (#462) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -14.7 (#299) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -18.3 (#522) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.018 (#607) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.054 (#666) | AdjNet -24.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.052 (#664) | AdjNet -24.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.159 (#663) | AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 82.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.288 (#549) | AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 78.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.166 (#552) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.187 (#549) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 850 (#423) | RD 350 | GP 2 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 | @ | Rogers St. | L | 59 - 77 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Ark.-Fort Smith | L | 46 - 100 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Hand | - | 1 | 16.6 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| DJ MIller | - | 2 | 18.2 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 7.5 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 40.0 | 81.8 | - | 78.4 | 66.7 |
| Adam Lopez | - | 2 | 13.9 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | - | - | - | 62.5 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 69.7 | 62.5 |
| Eyal Shamri | - | 2 | 13.6 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 6.5 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 30.8 | 30.0 | 100.0 | - | 46.8 | 42.3 |
| Luke Proctor | - | 2 | 16.4 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | - | - | - | 30.8 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 37.3 | 30.8 |
| Dylan Archery | - | 2 | 20.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | - | - | - | 30.0 | 33.3 | 0 | - | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Tyce Gentry | - | 2 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 25.0 | 0 | - | 44.4 | 44.4 |
| Donavan Darthard | - | 2 | 17.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.5 | - | - | - | 42.9 | 25.0 | 0.0 | - | 44.4 | 50.0 |
| Vanya Nikolic | - | 2 | 17.6 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 14.3 | 16.7 | 0.0 | - | 20.8 | 21.4 |
| Luca Davis | - | 2 | 17.8 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | - | - | - | 28.6 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 31.7 | 28.6 |
| Roberto Brandao | - | 2 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 25.0 | - | 39.9 | 50.0 |
| Patrick Akoussan | - | 2 | 9.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 17.0 | 20.0 |
| Jagger Worley | - | 2 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 25.8 | 0.0 |
| Liam Carrick | - | 2 | 8.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | - | 8.7 | 0.0 |
| Dylan Ducharme | - | 2 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG