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Notre Dame (OH)

Season: 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018 2016-2017 2015-2016 2014-2015
Also known as: Notre Dame College Falcons
Program History

Model Outputs

2023-2024
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1039 (#138) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1000 (#176) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +81 elo More → 1013 (#139) HCA +81 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → +0.8 (#227) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -1.6 (#228) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.484 (#176) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +1.1 More → 0.530 (#216) AdjNet +1.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +1.1 More → 0.532 (#216) AdjNet +1.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 78.4 | AdjD 78.1 More → 0.508 (#216) AdjO 78.4 | AdjD 78.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 77.7 | AdjD 77.5 More → 0.504 (#178) AdjO 77.7 | AdjD 77.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.518 (#199) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.517 (#190) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 126 | GP 28 More → 1040 (#141) RD 126 | GP 28
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. More → Legacy estimate Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast.

2023-2024 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2023-11-10 vs Pitt.-Johnstown W 89 - 76
2023-11-11 @ Indiana (PA) L 67 - 75
2023-11-18 vs Wheeling W 79 - 66
2023-11-21 @ West Liberty L 84 - 109
2023-11-29 vs Glenville St. L 87 - 88
2023-12-02 @ Concord L 83 - 93
2023-12-06 @ Davis & Elkins L 79 - 102
2023-12-09 vs West Va. Wesleyan W 75 - 69
2023-12-16 @ Dist. Columbia W 88 - 67
2023-12-18 @ Washington Adventist W 100 - 89
2023-12-30 vs D'Youville W 91 - 81
2024-01-10 vs West Virginia St. L 66 - 73
2024-01-13 @ Charleston (WV) L 79 - 98
2024-01-17 @ Frostburg St. W 108 - 78
2024-01-20 vs Fairmont St. L 63 - 79
2024-01-24 @ Wheeling W 80 - 71
2024-01-27 @ Salem (WV) W 86 - 77
2024-01-31 @ West Va. Wesleyan W 84 - 83
2024-02-03 vs Davis & Elkins L 80 - 93
2024-02-07 vs Concord L 79 - 87
2024-02-10 @ Glenville St. W 88 - 77
2024-02-14 vs Charleston (WV) L 67 - 86
2024-02-17 @ West Virginia St. W 96 - 91
2024-02-21 vs Frostburg St. W 93 - 76
2024-02-24 @ Fairmont St. L 81 - 87
2024-02-28 vs West Liberty L 87 - 88
2024-03-02 vs Salem (WV) W 76 - 63
2024-03-06 vs Wheeling W 100 - 98
2024-03-08 @ Charleston (WV) L 58 - 75

2023-2024 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Devin Haid - 29 27.8 15.9 5.6 2.4 1.3 0.9 2.5 11.3 12.3 -14 28 -0.5 -0.7 49.4 36.9 84.0 0.36 60.7 55.2
Andre Harris - 28 27.9 13.0 7.2 2.4 1.0 0.7 2.0 10.4 11.8 -3 28 -0.1 -0.2 46.6 25.0 55.9 2.1 51.3 48.6
Gbolahan Adio - 28 27.6 10.2 3.2 2.6 1.0 0.5 1.8 8.6 7.1 -29 28 -1.0 -1.5 45.0 39.0 58.1 -1.38 55.4 54.6
RJ Ogom - 27 16.3 9.9 3.9 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.1 6.6 7.3 -5 23 -0.2 -0.5 45.3 33.3 79.6 0.02 58.9 50.6
Trent Williams - 29 20.0 6.8 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.2 5.4 4.2 -67 28 -2.4 -4.8 41.0 40.2 84.8 -2.21 57.8 54.2
Joshua Dames - 29 13.7 6.6 3.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.3 5.0 6.0 42 26 1.6 4.6 44.4 38.6 73.2 1.28 59.2 56.2
Jevontae Jones - 28 17.6 5.0 3.1 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 3.8 5.8 -31 28 -1.1 -2.5 55.1 21.4 51.4 -1.14 56.8 56.5
Cameron Johnson - 21 10.6 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.9 -16 14 -1.1 -3.3 46.3 20.0 76.0 -0.32 54.5 49.3
Jamarr Talbert Jr. - 27 13.6 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.7 3.6 2.2 -37 24 -1.5 -4.2 37.5 33.3 72.2 -2.26 49.1 46.4
Robbie Cass - 28 10.1 3.8 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.5 3.8 1.7 1 27 0.0 0.1 38.3 36.8 50.0 -0.44 48.4 48.1
Davin Zeigler - 15 12.3 3.6 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 1.0 4.2 2.5 -4 6 -0.7 -0.9 33.3 24.3 30.0 -1.3 40.1 40.5
Trent Blackshire - 21 3.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 40 9 4.4 22.7 60.9 50.0 50.0 2.49 62.8 63.0
Kaleb Torrence - 18 5.2 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.4 19 8 2.4 7.8 30.0 31.6 0 1.69 40.0 40.0
Gio Moore - 24 3.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.5 14 15 0.9 7.2 44.4 50.0 0 -0.68 50.0 50.0
Jared Hankins - 12 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 -0.1 - - - - 33.3 0.0 100.0 -2.42 38.8 33.3
Aidan Filippini - 27 4.7 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 17 14 1.2 5.4 12.5 0.0 66.7 0.79 33.4 12.5
Kai Bloom - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Alan Swenson - 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kameron Taylor - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Jalen Walker - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Darrius Bush - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Isaiah Sanders - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Yan Kankela - 19 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 -1.44 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG