Notre Dame (MD)
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1100 (#74) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 992 (#334) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 996 (#467) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -13.4 (#315) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -7.7 (#464) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.586 (#416) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.364 (#400) | NetEff -3.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.051 (#601) | AdjNet -25.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.041 (#607) | AdjNet -26.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.194 (#591) | AdjO 51.8 | AdjD 67.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.477 (#421) | AdjO 54.8 | AdjD 55.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.375 (#476) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.398 (#458) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1014 (#287) | RD 104 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Alvernia | L | 48 - 59 |
| 2025-11-10 | @ | Randolph-Macon | L | 38 - 63 |
| 2025-11-13 | @ | Washington Col. | L | 36 - 45 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | East. Mennonite | W | 58 - 46 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | McDaniel | L | 31 - 82 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | FDU-Florham | L | 63 - 68 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Baruch | W | 70 - 54 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | UMBC | L | 22 - 104 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Goucher | W | 59 - 55 |
| 2026-01-13 | vs | Penn St. Harrisburg | L | 53 - 63 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Salisbury | W | 76 - 70 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Penn St. Brandywine | W | 74 - 44 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Wilson | W | 75 - 58 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Keystone | W | 75 - 34 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Cairn | W | 83 - 26 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Penn St.-Abington | L | 55 - 56 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | St. Mary's (MD) | L | 49 - 64 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Penn St.-Berks | W | 63 - 22 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marerica Barnett | - | 1 | 35.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | -12 | -12.0 | -13.0 | 28.6 | 20.0 | 40.0 | -1.35 | 37.0 | 35.7 |
| Amani Watts | - | 18 | 23.5 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 128 | 6.1 | 30.1 | 48.4 | 0 | 66.3 | 0.02 | 54.2 | 48.4 |
| Marecia Barnett | - | 17 | 26.0 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 11.3 | 3.1 | 96 | 5.1 | 22.9 | 28.1 | 26.4 | 75.0 | 1.15 | 36.6 | 35.7 |
| Raina Burns | - | 18 | 22.9 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 114 | 5.7 | 31.2 | 32.3 | 22.7 | 74.5 | -0.3 | 43.1 | 36.1 |
| Madison Simmons | - | 18 | 26.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 128 | 5.8 | 26.3 | 36.0 | 22.2 | 57.1 | 6.28 | 43.7 | 38.6 |
| Thalia Kayiranga | - | 16 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 24 | 1.3 | 14.6 | 42.5 | 0.0 | 62.5 | 0.19 | 46.1 | 42.5 |
| Alia Austin | - | 15 | 13.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | -21 | -1.2 | -12.8 | 34.2 | 33.3 | 73.3 | -0.4 | 38.6 | 34.8 |
| Allison Holman | - | 18 | 18.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 40 | 1.8 | 9.9 | 38.5 | 0 | 57.7 | 0.64 | 41.9 | 38.5 |
| Yasmeen Yussuf | - | 18 | 23.9 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 123 | 5.6 | 32.3 | 35.7 | 0 | 50.0 | 2.35 | 39.5 | 35.7 |
| Regina Sabirova | - | 13 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 42 | 2.6 | 32.5 | 33.3 | 26.1 | 60.0 | 0.84 | 41.3 | 40.0 |
| Aaliyah Conteh | - | 18 | 11.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 25 | 1.2 | 11.9 | 32.6 | 26.1 | 66.7 | -1.81 | 42.0 | 39.1 |
| Maya Barnett | - | 10 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 47 | 3.9 | 53.8 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 3.06 | 33.5 | 25.0 |
| Tristian Savage | - | 12 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | -0.9 | 8 | 0.6 | 10.0 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 33.3 | -0.95 | 20.2 | 18.5 |
| Kathryn DeGrange | - | 6 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 27 | 4.5 | 57.0 | 42.9 | 0 | 0 | -0.04 | 42.9 | 42.9 |
| Jadyn Forbes | - | 9 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 18 | 1.6 | 26.3 | 16.7 | 14.3 | 0 | 0.69 | 22.2 | 22.2 |
| Raven Rowe | - | 10 | 6.8 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 13 | 1.2 | 26.7 | 16.7 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.5 | 23.3 | 16.7 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG