Northern St.
Model Outputs
2018-2019
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 902 (#204) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 942 (#184) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 923 (#219) | HCA +53 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +8.3 (#103) | HCA +2.5 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.2 (#142) | HCA +2.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.272 (#218) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.662 (#135) | AdjNet +5.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.672 (#135) | AdjNet +6.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.597 (#129) | AdjO 60.9 | AdjD 56.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.404 (#213) | AdjO 58.0 | AdjD 62.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.530 (#152) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.491 (#166) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 933 (#188) | RD 152 | GP 28 |
2019 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-09 | vs | Pittsburg St. | L | 81 - 94 |
| 2018-11-10 | @ | Arkansas Tech | W | 84 - 51 |
| 2018-11-15 | vs | Presentation | W | 63 - 53 |
| 2018-11-23 | vs | East Central | - | Preview |
| 2018-11-24 | @ | Emporia St. | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-01 | vs | MSU Moorhead | L | 39 - 47 |
| 2018-12-07 | @ | Bemidji St. | W | 69 - 57 |
| 2018-12-08 | @ | Minn.-Crookston | L | 54 - 61 |
| 2018-12-14 | vs | Minot St. | W | 57 - 54 |
| 2018-12-15 | vs | Mary | L | 71 - 78 |
| 2018-12-19 | @ | MSU Moorhead | L | 51 - 60 |
| 2018-12-30 | vs | MSU Denver | W | 52 - 41 |
| 2019-01-04 | @ | Upper Iowa | W | 61 - 42 |
| 2019-01-05 | @ | Winona St. | L | 37 - 58 |
| 2019-01-11 | vs | Minn.-Crookston | W | 60 - 59 |
| 2019-01-12 | vs | Bemidji St. | W | 56 - 47 |
| 2019-01-18 | vs | Augustana (SD) | L | 66 - 75 |
| 2019-01-19 | vs | Wayne St. (NE) | L | 56 - 60 |
| 2019-01-25 | @ | St. Cloud St. | L | 64 - 76 |
| 2019-01-26 | @ | Minn. Duluth | L | 41 - 57 |
| 2019-02-01 | @ | Concordia-St. Paul | L | 49 - 71 |
| 2019-02-02 | @ | Minnesota St. | L | 40 - 54 |
| 2019-02-08 | vs | Sioux Falls | L | 66 - 73 |
| 2019-02-09 | vs | Southwest Minn. St. | W | 56 - 51 |
| 2019-02-15 | vs | Minn. Duluth | L | 56 - 74 |
| 2019-02-16 | vs | St. Cloud St. | L | 43 - 70 |
| 2019-02-22 | @ | Mary | L | 55 - 69 |
| 2019-02-23 | @ | Minot St. | W | 73 - 68 |
| 2019-02-27 | @ | Augustana (SD) | L | 64 - 80 |
2019 Roster
No roster data available for this season.