Northern St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1002 (#269) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1073 (#134) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1006 (#331) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +13.5 (#54) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +11.8 (#188) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.648 (#304) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.590 (#250) | NetEff +3.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.937 (#170) | AdjNet +23.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.944 (#167) | AdjNet +24.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.804 (#166) | AdjO 73.8 | AdjD 58.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.596 (#175) | AdjO 61.3 | AdjD 57.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.718 (#160) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.696 (#179) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1032 (#217) | RD 91 | GP 24 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Pittsburg St. | L | 70 - 72 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Neb.-Kearney | W | 65 - 60 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Black Hills St. | W | 56 - 54 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | South Dakota Mines | W | 64 - 51 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | Jamestown | L | 48 - 65 |
| 2025-11-30 | @ | Southwest Minn. St. | W | 81 - 79 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Mary | L | 63 - 81 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Minot St. | W | 68 - 62 |
| 2025-12-11 | vs | Minn. Duluth | L | 63 - 69 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Bemidji St. | W | 62 - 55 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Minn.-Crookston | L | 58 - 65 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Jamestown | W | 67 - 58 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Augustana (SD) | W | 88 - 47 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Winona St. | W | 69 - 47 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Concordia-St. Paul | L | 51 - 78 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Minnesota St. | L | 52 - 81 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | St. Cloud St. | L | 39 - 70 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Sioux Falls | W | 73 - 72 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Southwest Minn. St. | W | 74 - 66 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Minn.-Crookston | L | 48 - 68 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | MSU Moorhead | W | 61 - 41 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izzy Moore | - | 21 | 33.3 | 16.8 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 13.1 | 11.8 | -15 | -0.6 | -2.5 | 46.5 | 37.1 | 72.4 | -0.13 | 55.5 | 51.3 |
| Megan Counts | - | 21 | 23.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -43 | -1.8 | -9.1 | 50.4 | 22.2 | 90.7 | -0.6 | 58.6 | 52.0 |
| Taylor Tool | - | 21 | 22.6 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 4.1 | -18 | -0.8 | -3.6 | 40.4 | 36.2 | 61.8 | -0.84 | 48.0 | 45.8 |
| Reagan Rus | - | 21 | 20.5 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 40.4 | 0.0 | 60.3 | 2.6 | 45.2 | 40.4 |
| Morgan Fiedler | - | 21 | 32.7 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 6.9 | 3.1 | -3 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 38.9 | 22.0 | 59.4 | -1.16 | 44.9 | 42.7 |
| Lily Klein | - | 21 | 25.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -3 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 40.5 | 41.7 | 66.7 | 0.99 | 49.2 | 47.3 |
| Carli Kuyper | - | 21 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 23 | 1.0 | 8.6 | 35.4 | 26.9 | 60.7 | -0.0 | 43.8 | 39.9 |
| Makenzie Carrier | - | 20 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | -33 | -1.5 | -15.1 | 34.7 | 34.4 | 80.0 | -2.48 | 51.3 | 45.9 |
| Telia Graham | - | 20 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 4.9 | -4 | -0.2 | -1.6 | 54.1 | 0 | 45.0 | -0.29 | 53.5 | 54.1 |
| Kennedi Deckert | - | 7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 40.0 | 0 | 0.88 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Lucy Moore | - | 20 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | -5 | -0.2 | -3.8 | 15.8 | 20.0 | 53.8 | -2.01 | 30.3 | 21.1 |
| Ava Hanson | - | 3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -6 | -2.0 | -61.8 | 0.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.34 | 34.7 | 0.0 |
| Brooklynn Holmberg | - | 10 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -12 | -1.1 | -26.6 | 18.2 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.32 | 21.0 | 18.2 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG