🐻⬇️🏀

Northern N.M.

Also known as: Northern N.M.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 934 (#346) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 863 (#483) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 943 (#491) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -5.8 (#265) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -8.5 (#445) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.059 (#554) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -16.4 More → 0.131 (#595) AdjNet -16.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -16.2 More → 0.130 (#595) AdjNet -16.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.1 | AdjD 83.8 More → 0.241 (#597) AdjO 71.1 | AdjD 83.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 78.5 | AdjD 83.1 More → 0.396 (#460) AdjO 78.5 | AdjD 83.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.315 (#454) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.322 (#456) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 243 | GP 3 More → 719 (#490) RD 243 | GP 3

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-18 @ Eastern N.M. L 73 - 92
2026-01-02 @ Colo. Christian L 74 - 99
2026-01-03 @ Colo. Sch. of Mines L 84 - 92

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Austin Abrams - 1 26.9 26.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 17.0 15.0 51 2.4 12.7 64.7 100.0 66.7 0.71 71.0 70.6
Markus Pastorcic-Straun - 1 30.7 23.0 7.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 16.0 18.0 20 1.4 4.8 50.0 0.0 46.7 -0.88 50.9 50.0
Pierce Bazil - 1 32.9 22.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 14.0 15.0 -69 -3.1 -13.9 50.0 20.0 77.8 -2.96 61.2 53.6
Shelton Henton - 1 32.6 21.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 14.0 88 3.5 15.1 57.1 50.0 0 -1.58 75.0 75.0
Jose Murillo - 1 26.6 19.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 20.0 96 4.8 22.5 62.5 0 60.0 2.1 65.1 62.5
Andrew Reichart - 1 25.2 17.0 7.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 7.0 21.0 -4 -0.2 -1.4 100.0 0 60.0 0.92 92.4 100.0
Alex Romack - 1 27.8 17.0 14.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 11.0 23.0 65 2.6 7.8 63.6 0.0 60.0 1.22 64.4 63.6
Breckten Wilson - 1 12.3 13.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 7.0 97 3.5 38.5 62.5 100.0 66.7 2.59 69.7 68.8
Jonathan Moore - 1 19.6 13.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 6.0 15.0 23 1.3 6.4 50.0 100.0 100.0 -1.45 75.2 58.3
Porter Bazil - 1 24.2 12.0 9.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 9.0 14.0 -47 -2.1 -9.9 55.6 25.0 50.0 -1.57 60.7 61.1
Treyvon Byrd - 1 25.4 10.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 16.0 125 6.9 29.3 75.0 0.0 100.0 2.31 86.8 75.0
Ezra Guest - 1 23.8 9.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 18 0.8 9.7 75.0 75.0 0 -1.15 112.5 112.5
Mo Austin - 1 27.1 8.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 13.0 127 6.0 26.6 50.0 0 0 1.28 50.0 50.0
Raul Stanford - 1 5.7 7.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 - - - 60.0 100.0 0 - 70.0 70.0
Jimmy House - 1 9.1 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 49 2.7 22.2 100.0 100.0 0 1.68 150.0 150.0
Schafer Reichart - 1 30.8 6.0 9.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 10.0 -104 -5.2 -23.2 14.3 0.0 100.0 1.81 34.2 14.3
Zachary Reed - 1 2.5 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 -55 -2.6 -15.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.83 133.0 150.0
Braydon Jacob - 1 17.5 5.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 24 1.0 5.4 20.0 20.0 100.0 0.33 42.5 30.0
Kellon Johnson - 1 34.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 4.0 14 0.6 2.5 28.6 0.0 50.0 2.45 31.7 28.6
Cooper Jackson - 1 22.6 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 5.0 122 5.8 28.5 50.0 50.0 0 0.56 62.5 62.5
Jared Lloyd Jr. - 1 13.3 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 12 0.6 11.8 50.0 0.0 100.0 2.11 69.4 50.0
Will Cordonnier - 1 5.4 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 15 0.6 3.7 33.3 33.3 50.0 1.04 51.5 50.0
Trent Minter - 1 23.7 4.0 11.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 12.0 39 1.6 5.8 33.3 0.0 66.7 0.31 46.3 33.3
Lincoln Cantrall - 1 10.2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 6 0.3 3.5 100.0 100.0 0 -1.53 150.0 150.0
Andrija Maric - 1 5.7 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 - - - 100.0 0 100.0 - 104.2 100.0
Joshua Reid - 1 8.4 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 -1.0 -15 -0.7 -4.9 25.0 0 0 0.9 25.0 25.0
Alex Alfaro - 1 7.6 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 44 2.3 60.7 100.0 0 0 1.1 100.0 100.0
Jaden Clarke - 1 5.4 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 - - - 20.0 0.0 0 - 20.0 20.0
Johnathan Lyons Jr. - 1 2.3 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 125 6.9 53.9 100.0 0 0 2.11 100.0 100.0
PJ Chambers - 1 2.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -19 -1.4 -21.2 0 0 0 -1.17 0 0
Ethan Johnson - 1 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2 -0.3 -114.3 0 0 0 0.25 0 0
Garrett Poelman - 1 2.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.1 3.0 0 0 0 0.87 0 0
Derek Lamb - 1 4.7 0.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 4 0.2 3.6 0.0 0 0 0.69 0.0 0.0
Cooper Mroczek - 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 36 1.5 13.5 0.0 0 0 -0.39 0.0 0.0
Brandon Kehres - 1 4.9 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 4 0.3 177.8 0.0 0 0 -0.48 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG