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Northern Kentucky

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Northern Kentucky Norse
Program History
Coach: Jeff Hans

2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)

57.7
PPG
62.0
Opp
-4.3
Margin
31.0%
FG%
22.8%
3P%
77.0%
FT%
45.7
RPG
9.0
APG
21.7
TO
75.6
Est. poss./game
46.6
Adj PPG
59.5
Adj Opp PPG
#323
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 794 (returning production + recruiting): last season 949, returning -93, transfers -62, freshmen +0 More → 825 (#274) Preseason prior 794 (returning production + recruiting): last season 949, returning -93, transfers -62, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +215 elo More → 859 (#282) HCA +215 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +215 elo More → 930 (#274) HCA +215 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +9.3 More → -15.7 (#323) HCA +9.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +9.3 More → -15.4 (#324) HCA +9.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.058 (#324) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -19.4 More → 0.205 (#323) AdjNet -19.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -20.6 More → 0.190 (#327) AdjNet -20.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 46.6 | AdjD 59.5 More → 0.239 (#323) AdjO 46.6 | AdjD 59.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 46.6 | AdjD 59.5 More → 0.272 (#331) AdjO 46.6 | AdjD 59.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.221 (#318) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.227 (#318) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 195 | GP 2 More → 859 (#274) RD 195 | GP 2
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast. More → 0.132 (#296) Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 vs Defiance Yellow Jackets W 84 - 49
2026-11-05 @ Kentucky Wildcats L 28 - 79
2026-11-07 vs Kent State Golden Flashes W 61 - 58
2026-11-12 vs Chattanooga Mocs - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Maya Layton Maya Layton G 3 28.0 10.3 4.3 1.0 1.7 1.3 5.0 9.3 4.3 -2 3 -0.7 -1.0 32.1 33.3 80.0 0.76 47.8 41.1
Gaia Castelli Gaia Castelli G 3 25.0 10.0 6.3 2.3 0.7 0.7 4.0 12.7 3.3 -16 3 -5.3 -8.5 28.9 20.0 100.0 -2.5 37.7 34.2
Caroline Eaglin Caroline Eaglin G 3 12.0 7.0 2.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 4.0 5.3 5 3 1.7 5.6 58.3 50.0 80.0 -0.6 73.9 70.8
Sara Basaran Sara Basaran F 3 28.0 6.3 6.7 1.3 0.7 0.7 4.0 6.3 5.3 -6 3 -2.0 -2.8 26.3 12.5 57.1 -0.22 37.8 28.9
Anna Hamilton Anna Hamilton G 3 19.7 6.0 3.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.0 5.0 3.3 -16 3 -5.3 -10.9 20.0 40.0 100.0 -2.69 46.4 26.7
Noelle Hubert Noelle Hubert G 3 23.7 5.0 4.0 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.7 5.7 5.0 -11 3 -3.7 -6.2 29.4 15.4 75.0 0.32 40.0 35.3
Dženifera Rieksta Dženifera Rieksta F 3 18.0 4.0 4.3 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.7 5.3 4.3 -4 3 -1.3 -3.0 31.2 0.0 66.7 0.59 34.6 31.2
Alma Rashelbach Alma Rashelbach G 3 14.0 3.7 3.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.3 -6 3 -2.0 -5.7 33.3 0.0 71.4 0.23 45.5 33.3
Kennedy Younkin Kennedy Younkin F 3 24.0 3.7 4.0 0.7 0.0 1.3 1.0 4.3 4.3 -2 3 -0.7 -1.1 30.8 0 75.0 -1.72 37.3 30.8
Ema Mačkić Ema Mačkić G 2 8.5 2.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.5 0.5 -4 2 -2.0 -9.3 40.0 50.0 0 0.71 50.0 50.0
Lucía Auza Lucía Auza G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ya Ida Sköld Ya Ida Sköld G 2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.5 -3 2 -1.5 -17.9 0.0 0.0 0 -0.59 0.0 0.0
Sofija Todorović Sofija Todorović F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

174 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Eaglin19% Rieksta15% Eaglin50% Castelli67% Rieksta50% Castelli50% Hamilton50% Eaglin20% Eaglin33% Layton50%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Rieksta22% Hamilton19% Rashelbach20% Castelli67% Castelli67% Rashelbach50% Castelli25% Castelli32% Rieksta18% Castelli31%
Misses: who misses most here

Gaia CastelliMaya LaytonCaroline EaglinDženifera RiekstaAnna HamiltonAlma Rashelbach

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 16-34 47.1 32 Caroline Eaglin 19% (6 pts) Kennedy Younkin 19% (6 pts) Dženifera Rieksta 22% (4 misses) Kennedy Younkin 22% (4 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 13-40 32.5 26 Dženifera Rieksta 15% (4 pts) Gaia Castelli 15% (4 pts) Anna Hamilton 19% (5 misses) Maya Layton 19% (5 misses)
Mid-range left 2-7 28.6 4 Caroline Eaglin 50% (2 pts) Gaia Castelli 50% (2 pts) Alma Rashelbach 20% (1 misses) Anna Hamilton 20% (1 misses)
Mid-range center 3-6 50.0 6 Gaia Castelli 67% (4 pts) Maya Layton 33% (2 pts) Gaia Castelli 67% (2 misses) Anna Hamilton 33% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 2-8 25.0 4 Dženifera Rieksta 50% (2 pts) Noelle Hubert 50% (2 pts) Gaia Castelli 67% (4 misses) Caroline Eaglin 17% (1 misses)
Left corner 3 2-4 50.0 6 Gaia Castelli 50% (3 pts) Noelle Hubert 50% (3 pts) Alma Rashelbach 50% (1 misses) Ya Ida Sköld 50% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 2-6 33.3 6 Anna Hamilton 50% (3 pts) Caroline Eaglin 50% (3 pts) Gaia Castelli 25% (1 misses) Maya Layton 25% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 5-27 18.5 15 Caroline Eaglin 20% (3 pts) Gaia Castelli 20% (3 pts) Gaia Castelli 32% (7 misses) Maya Layton 18% (4 misses)
Above-break 3 center 3-20 15.0 9 Caroline Eaglin 33% (3 pts) Ema Mačkić 33% (3 pts) Dženifera Rieksta 18% (3 misses) Gaia Castelli 18% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 right 6-22 27.3 18 Maya Layton 50% (9 pts) Gaia Castelli 33% (6 pts) Gaia Castelli 31% (5 misses) Noelle Hubert 19% (3 misses)