Northern Kentucky
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
60.0
PPG
65.2
Opp
-5.2
Margin
33.2%
FG%
26.6%
3P%
71.3%
FT%
41.8
RPG
11.3
APG
18.8
TO
73.1
Est. poss./game
52.7
Adj PPG
64.0
Adj Opp PPG
#317
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 783 (#298) | Preseason prior 794 (returning production + recruiting): last season 949, returning -93, transfers -62, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 847 (#300) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 849 (#300) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -11.2 (#274) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -11.1 (#274) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.077 (#301) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.235 (#290) | AdjNet -11.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.191 (#313) | AdjNet -15.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.254 (#317) | AdjO 52.7 | AdjD 64.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.256 (#317) | AdjO 52.8 | AdjD 64.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.238 (#305) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.238 (#305) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 837 (#289) | RD 180 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.203 (#300) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | vs | Defiance Yellow Jackets | W | 84 - 49 |
| 2026-11-05 | @ | Kentucky Wildcats | L | 28 - 79 |
| 2026-11-07 | vs | Kent State Golden Flashes | W | 61 - 58 |
| 2026-11-12 | vs | Chattanooga Mocs | L | 67 - 75 |
| 2026-11-17 | @ | Eastern Kentucky Colonels | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gaia Castelli
|
G | 4 | 27.0 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 13.2 | 4.8 | -23 | 4 | -5.8 | -8.5 | 28.3 | 22.6 | 100.0 | -2.83 | 37.4 | 34.9 |
Maya Layton
|
G | 4 | 28.5 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 10 | 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 28.2 | 26.3 | 72.2 | 1.84 | 42.6 | 34.6 |
Noelle Hubert
|
G | 4 | 25.2 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | -17 | 4 | -4.2 | -6.7 | 44.4 | 38.1 | 75.0 | -0.49 | 60.8 | 59.3 |
Anna Hamilton
|
G | 4 | 19.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | -31 | 4 | -7.8 | -16.1 | 33.3 | 57.1 | 92.9 | -3.98 | 57.1 | 42.9 |
Caroline Eaglin
|
G | 4 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 9 | 4 | 2.2 | 7.9 | 58.3 | 50.0 | 71.4 | -0.24 | 72.9 | 70.8 |
Sara Basaran
|
F | 4 | 27.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 3.8 | -15 | 4 | -3.8 | -5.4 | 22.7 | 10.0 | 57.1 | -0.5 | 33.7 | 25.0 |
Dženifera Rieksta
|
F | 4 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | -9 | 4 | -2.2 | -4.5 | 31.8 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.03 | 34.3 | 31.8 |
Kennedy Younkin
|
F | 4 | 21.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -7 | 4 | -1.8 | -3.3 | 37.5 | 0 | 57.1 | -1.66 | 41.9 | 37.5 |
Alma Rashelbach
|
G | 4 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | -11 | 4 | -2.8 | -8.0 | 38.5 | 0.0 | 55.6 | -0.05 | 44.2 | 38.5 |
Ema Mačkić
|
G | 2 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | -4 | 2 | -2.0 | -9.3 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.8 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Lucía Auza
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Ya Ida Sköld
|
G | 3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.3 | -7 | 3 | -2.3 | -41.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.78 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Sofija Todorović
|
F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
232 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Gaia CastelliNoelle HubertMaya LaytonCaroline EaglinDženifera RiekstaKennedy YounkinAlma Rashelbach
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 21-40 | 52.5 | 42 | Kennedy Younkin 19% (8 pts) | Alma Rashelbach 14% (6 pts) | Dženifera Rieksta 26% (5 misses) | Kennedy Younkin 21% (4 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 20-59 | 33.9 | 40 | Dženifera Rieksta 15% (6 pts) | Gaia Castelli 15% (6 pts) | Maya Layton 23% (9 misses) | Anna Hamilton 18% (7 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 2-9 | 22.2 | 4 | Caroline Eaglin 50% (2 pts) | Gaia Castelli 50% (2 pts) | Gaia Castelli 29% (2 misses) | Maya Layton 29% (2 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 3-6 | 50.0 | 6 | Gaia Castelli 67% (4 pts) | Maya Layton 33% (2 pts) | Gaia Castelli 67% (2 misses) | Anna Hamilton 33% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 2-9 | 22.2 | 4 | Dženifera Rieksta 50% (2 pts) | Noelle Hubert 50% (2 pts) | Gaia Castelli 57% (4 misses) | Noelle Hubert 29% (2 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 2-5 | 40.0 | 6 | Gaia Castelli 50% (3 pts) | Noelle Hubert 50% (3 pts) | Alma Rashelbach 33% (1 misses) | Maya Layton 33% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 4-8 | 50.0 | 12 | Noelle Hubert 50% (6 pts) | Anna Hamilton 25% (3 pts) | Gaia Castelli 25% (1 misses) | Maya Layton 25% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 10-43 | 23.3 | 30 | Gaia Castelli 40% (12 pts) | Noelle Hubert 20% (6 pts) | Gaia Castelli 36% (12 misses) | Noelle Hubert 18% (6 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 6-24 | 25.0 | 18 | Noelle Hubert 33% (6 pts) | Anna Hamilton 17% (3 pts) | Maya Layton 22% (4 misses) | Dženifera Rieksta 17% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 7-29 | 24.1 | 21 | Maya Layton 43% (9 pts) | Gaia Castelli 29% (6 pts) | Gaia Castelli 36% (8 misses) | Maya Layton 18% (4 misses) |