Northern Arizona
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
69.5
PPG
87.8
Opp
-18.2
Margin
46.7%
FG%
37.5%
3P%
75.3%
FT%
29.0
RPG
12.5
APG
14.8
TO
64.0
Est. poss./game
70.8
Adj PPG
73.4
Adj Opp PPG
#255
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 723 (#330) | Preseason prior 729 (returning production + recruiting): last season 823, returning +11, transfers -75, freshmen -30 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 856 (#331) | HCA +206 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 858 (#330) | HCA +205 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -2.8 (#185) | HCA +2.2 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -2.7 (#184) | HCA +2.2 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.126 (#324) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.304 (#293) | AdjNet -9.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.321 (#281) | AdjNet -7.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.380 (#255) | AdjO 70.8 | AdjD 73.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.382 (#254) | AdjO 70.8 | AdjD 73.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.327 (#272) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.327 (#272) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 799 (#347) | RD 172 | GP 4 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.289 (#296) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | @ | UNLV Rebels | L | 77 - 89 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ | New Mexico Lobos | L | 65 - 94 |
| 2026-11-10 | @ | Arizona Wildcats | L | 59 - 90 |
| 2026-11-13 | @ | Kentucky Wildcats | L | 77 - 78 |
| 2026-11-17 | vs | Embry Riddle (AZ) Eagles | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-21 | @ | Cal Poly Mustangs | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Komin
|
G | 4 | 36.5 | 21.8 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 14.2 | 14.8 | -62 | 4 | -15.5 | -17.0 | 52.6 | 50.0 | 71.4 | -1.75 | 65.7 | 63.2 |
Lucas Toukam
|
F | 4 | 31.0 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 9.0 | 11.2 | -48 | 4 | -12.0 | -15.4 | 52.8 | 22.2 | 71.4 | 0.04 | 59.3 | 55.6 |
Ryan Abelman
|
G | 4 | 33.5 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 6.5 | -55 | 4 | -13.8 | -16.3 | 41.7 | 40.6 | 80.0 | -0.16 | 61.5 | 59.7 |
Tamiel Green
|
F | 4 | 17.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 7.8 | -7 | 4 | -1.8 | -4.0 | 80.0 | 0 | 88.9 | 1.08 | 86.0 | 80.0 |
Dylan Anderson
|
F | 4 | 20.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | -51 | 4 | -12.8 | -25.5 | 38.9 | 25.0 | 66.7 | -2.29 | 50.9 | 47.2 |
Max Majerle
|
G | 4 | 25.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | -51 | 4 | -12.8 | -20.0 | 23.5 | 11.1 | 80.0 | -1.27 | 39.7 | 26.5 |
Cade Bennett
|
G | 4 | 17.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | -19 | 4 | -4.8 | -10.8 | 33.3 | 40.0 | 100.0 | 0.2 | 56.3 | 50.0 |
Noah George
|
G | 3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | -17 | 3 | -5.7 | -70.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 60.0 | -0.91 | 93.8 | 150.0 |
Zach Tanner
|
F | 3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | -14 | 3 | -4.7 | -42.3 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 0 | -0.75 | 60.0 | 60.0 |
Luke Wieskamp
|
F | 4 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | -23 | 4 | -5.8 | -34.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -0.6 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
Mason Dorsey
|
G | 3 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | -0.3 | -12 | 3 | -4.0 | -23.9 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
Jt Amundsen
|
G | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2 | 1 | -2.0 | -120.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.63 | 0 | 0 |
Nana Keutcha
|
C | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -2 | 1 | -2.0 | -120.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.38 | 0 | 0 |
Johnny Mautz
|
G | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2 | 1 | -2.0 | -120.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.38 | 0 | 0 |
Brennan Peterson
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
197 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Chris KominRyan AbelmanLucas ToukamDylan AndersonCade BennettMason Dorsey
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 30-39 | 76.9 | 60 | Lucas Toukam 47% (28 pts) | Chris Komin 20% (12 pts) | Lucas Toukam 33% (3 misses) | Max Majerle 33% (3 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 17-33 | 51.5 | 34 | Chris Komin 35% (12 pts) | Lucas Toukam 18% (6 pts) | Lucas Toukam 38% (6 misses) | Chris Komin 31% (5 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 2-3 | 66.7 | 4 | Chris Komin 100% (4 pts) | - | Mason Dorsey 100% (1 misses) | - |
| Mid-range center | 3-7 | 42.9 | 6 | Chris Komin 100% (6 pts) | - | Chris Komin 75% (3 misses) | Max Majerle 25% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 1-11 | 9.1 | 2 | Chris Komin 100% (2 pts) | - | Chris Komin 60% (6 misses) | Ryan Abelman 20% (2 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 3-8 | 37.5 | 9 | Lucas Toukam 67% (6 pts) | Zach Tanner 33% (3 pts) | Dylan Anderson 40% (2 misses) | Lucas Toukam 20% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 4-7 | 57.1 | 12 | Ryan Abelman 50% (6 pts) | Cade Bennett 25% (3 pts) | Cade Bennett 33% (1 misses) | Chris Komin 33% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 12-32 | 37.5 | 36 | Ryan Abelman 42% (15 pts) | Chris Komin 25% (9 pts) | Ryan Abelman 35% (7 misses) | Chris Komin 15% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 8-26 | 30.8 | 24 | Chris Komin 38% (9 pts) | Ryan Abelman 25% (6 pts) | Lucas Toukam 22% (4 misses) | Chris Komin 17% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 12-31 | 38.7 | 36 | Chris Komin 50% (18 pts) | Ryan Abelman 33% (12 pts) | Ryan Abelman 42% (8 misses) | Chris Komin 26% (5 misses) |