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North Central (MN)

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1094 (#93) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +81 elo More โ†’ 1101 (#93) HCA +81 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +81 elo More โ†’ 1047 (#89) HCA +81 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.0 More โ†’ +5.6 (#95) HCA +2.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.0 More โ†’ +5.1 (#96) HCA +2.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.720 (#72) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +4.1 More โ†’ 0.621 (#86) AdjNet +4.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +4.0 More โ†’ 0.622 (#86) AdjNet +4.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 76.5 | AdjD 74.4 More โ†’ 0.615 (#86) AdjO 76.5 | AdjD 74.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 76.5 | AdjD 74.4 More โ†’ 0.580 (#87) AdjO 76.5 | AdjD 74.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.632 (#86) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.625 (#86) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 219 | GP 1 More โ†’ 1102 (#90) RD 219 | GP 1
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast. More โ†’ 0.770 (#101) Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-07 vs Saint Mary's (MN) W 84 - 70

2026-2027 Roster

No roster data available for this season.