Nichols
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1016 (#144) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1031 (#133) | HCA +81 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1006 (#140) | HCA +81 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.9 (#154) | HCA +2.0 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +0.6 (#156) | HCA +2.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.465 (#173) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.529 (#155) | AdjNet -4.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.529 (#155) | AdjNet -4.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.521 (#150) | AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 70.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.500 (#156) | AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 70.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.517 (#153) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.513 (#155) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1020 (#138) | RD 218 | GP 1 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.641 (#127) | Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast. |
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | vs | WPI | L | 53 - 61 |
2026-2027 Roster
No roster data available for this season.