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Morgan State

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Morgan State Lady Bears
Program History
Coach: Nadine Domond

2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)

54.3
PPG
-
Opp
-
Margin
30.9%
FG%
19.6%
3P%
52.9%
FT%
35.0
RPG
10.5
APG
18.5
TO
79.1
Est. poss./game
49.5
Adj PPG
68.3
Adj Opp PPG
#351
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 705 (returning production + recruiting): last season 836, returning -83, transfers -49, freshmen +0 More → 704 (#338) Preseason prior 705 (returning production + recruiting): last season 836, returning -83, transfers -49, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +215 elo More → 789 (#334) HCA +215 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +215 elo More → 890 (#336) HCA +215 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +9.3 More → -28.4 (#359) HCA +9.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +9.3 More → -27.9 (#359) HCA +9.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.009 (#360) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -37.3 More → 0.090 (#359) AdjNet -37.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -38.0 More → 0.081 (#359) AdjNet -38.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 49.5 | AdjD 68.3 More → 0.158 (#351) AdjO 49.5 | AdjD 68.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 49.5 | AdjD 68.3 More → 0.195 (#356) AdjO 49.5 | AdjD 68.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.111 (#353) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.116 (#354) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 199 | GP 2 More → 765 (#339) RD 199 | GP 2
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast. More → 0.065 (#339) Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 vs Washington Adventist Shock W 103 - 47
2026-11-04 @ Colorado Buffaloes L 38 - 83
2026-11-06 @ Oklahoma State Cowgirls L 38 - 92
2026-11-08 @ Oklahoma Sooners L 38 - 95
2026-11-13 @ UMBC Retrievers - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Simran Williams Simran Williams G 4 13.5 6.2 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 6.0 1.0 -10 3 -3.3 -10.1 41.7 66.7 42.9 0.41 46.2 45.8
Alexiz Graise Alexiz Graise G 4 9.8 5.2 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.2 5.0 1.0 0 3 0.0 0.0 30.0 20.0 77.8 0.03 43.8 35.0
Merit Innocent Merit Innocent C 4 17.8 5.0 4.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 1.0 4.5 4.5 -13 3 -4.3 -9.3 55.6 0 0 -1.44 55.6 55.6
Mihjae Hayes Mihjae Hayes PG 4 24.5 4.8 1.2 3.0 2.8 0.0 1.0 6.0 4.8 -29 3 -9.7 -13.6 29.2 0.0 100.0 -3.41 36.3 29.2
Dru Carlton Dru Carlton G 4 11.0 4.2 1.2 0.2 1.2 0.2 1.5 5.2 0.5 -11 3 -3.7 -12.9 28.6 29.4 0.0 -0.5 38.8 40.5
Jahzara Leamon Jahzara Leamon G 4 12.5 4.2 3.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.0 4.2 3.2 -17 3 -5.7 -17.4 47.1 0.0 50.0 -2.73 47.5 47.1
Yonta Vaughn Yonta Vaughn G 4 15.5 4.0 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 8.2 0.0 -33 3 -11.0 -30.0 18.2 11.1 33.3 -1.27 22.4 21.2
Dakota Alston Dakota Alston G 3 15.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.0 2 2 1.0 3.3 40.0 28.6 100.0 -0.71 55.1 50.0
Ja'naya Meyers Ja'naya Meyers G 4 11.2 3.8 3.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.2 3.8 2.8 6 3 2.0 7.3 40.0 50.0 100.0 -0.43 47.2 43.3
Chardae Rumph Chardae Rumph G 4 18.8 3.5 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.0 2.5 4.8 -0.5 -25 3 -8.3 -21.0 26.3 20.0 100.0 -3.69 35.2 31.6
Kamari Forrest Kamari Forrest G 3 18.7 3.3 6.3 0.0 1.0 0.7 1.7 7.3 2.3 -22 3 -7.3 -15.5 22.7 0 0.0 -0.7 20.3 22.7
Shani Clark Shani Clark G 4 13.8 3.2 2.2 0.8 0.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 2.2 -22 3 -7.3 -27.6 31.2 25.0 50.0 -2.64 36.6 34.4
Mercy Lasu Mercy Lasu F 4 14.0 2.8 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.8 -2 3 -0.7 -2.1 27.8 0.0 25.0 -0.36 27.8 27.8
Kenya Ramsey Kenya Ramsey G 4 12.8 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.0 5.2 -2.0 -39 3 -13.0 -38.1 14.3 10.0 0 -4.38 16.7 16.7
Kazahria Johnson Kazahria Johnson F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

278 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Innocent24% Meyers14% Graise25% Graise17% Graise25% Carlton50% Carlton100% Graise25% Meyers100% Williams50%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Hayes25% Forrest13% Williams29% Forrest24% Forrest24% Graise50% Carlton33% Vaughn22% Vaughn42% Carlton24%
Misses: who misses most here

Simran WilliamsMerit InnocentDru CarltonAlexiz GraiseMihjae HayesYonta VaughnJa'naya MeyersKamari Forrest

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 25-49 51.0 50 Merit Innocent 24% (12 pts) Mihjae Hayes 20% (10 pts) Mihjae Hayes 25% (6 misses) Merit Innocent 17% (4 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 29-75 38.7 58 Ja'naya Meyers 14% (8 pts) Jahzara Leamon 14% (8 pts) Kamari Forrest 13% (6 misses) Ja'naya Meyers 11% (5 misses)
Mid-range left 4-18 22.2 8 Alexiz Graise 25% (2 pts) Jahzara Leamon 25% (2 pts) Simran Williams 29% (4 misses) Kenya Ramsey 14% (2 misses)
Mid-range center 6-23 26.1 12 Alexiz Graise 17% (2 pts) Dakota Alston 17% (2 pts) Kamari Forrest 24% (4 misses) Mihjae Hayes 18% (3 misses)
Mid-range right 4-21 19.0 8 Alexiz Graise 25% (2 pts) Kenya Ramsey 25% (2 pts) Kamari Forrest 24% (4 misses) Alexiz Graise 18% (3 misses)
Left corner 3 4-8 50.0 12 Dru Carlton 50% (6 pts) Dakota Alston 25% (3 pts) Alexiz Graise 50% (2 misses) Kenya Ramsey 25% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 1-7 14.3 3 Dru Carlton 100% (3 pts) - Dru Carlton 33% (2 misses) Alexiz Graise 17% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 8-35 22.9 24 Alexiz Graise 25% (6 pts) Dru Carlton 25% (6 pts) Yonta Vaughn 22% (6 misses) Dakota Alston 15% (4 misses)
Above-break 3 center 1-13 7.7 3 Ja'naya Meyers 100% (3 pts) - Yonta Vaughn 42% (5 misses) Mercy Lasu 25% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 right 4-29 13.8 12 Simran Williams 50% (6 pts) Chardae Rumph 25% (3 pts) Dru Carlton 24% (6 misses) Chardae Rumph 20% (5 misses)