Moravian
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 863 (#448) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 989 (#338) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 955 (#557) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -2.1 (#215) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.1 (#386) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.176 (#595) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.368 (#396) | NetEff -4.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.212 (#486) | AdjNet -11.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.197 (#489) | AdjNet -11.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.330 (#487) | AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 66.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.508 (#374) | AdjO 62.4 | AdjD 62.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.504 (#378) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.501 (#377) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 963 (#365) | RD 100 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Immaculata | L | 56 - 81 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Albright | W | 77 - 64 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Elizabethtown | L | 67 - 70 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Wilkes | W | 63 - 50 |
| 2025-11-24 | vs | DeSales | L | 46 - 66 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Scranton | L | 53 - 90 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Lebanon Valley | L | 56 - 73 |
| 2025-12-29 | vs | Cedar Crest | W | 79 - 39 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Brooklyn | L | 74 - 79 |
| 2026-01-11 | @ | Lycoming | W | 51 - 36 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Goucher | W | 68 - 57 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Juniata | W | 74 - 52 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Drew | L | 54 - 65 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Wilkes | W | 65 - 52 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Elizabethtown | L | 66 - 78 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Susquehanna | L | 58 - 69 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Scranton | L | 47 - 81 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Catholic | L | 54 - 84 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzie Lustig | - | 18 | 30.6 | 13.1 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 10.9 | 7.7 | -95 | -4.5 | -24.0 | 45.7 | 33.3 | 85.2 | -0.46 | 53.5 | 48.2 |
| Juliana Vassallo | - | 18 | 20.0 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 9.2 | 2.7 | -111 | -5.5 | -42.2 | 36.4 | 32.9 | 74.2 | -0.29 | 46.7 | 43.6 |
| Megan Elias | - | 18 | 26.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 7.8 | 2.5 | -112 | -5.3 | -31.7 | 35.7 | 23.4 | 76.5 | -2.7 | 42.0 | 39.6 |
| Ellie Wallbillich | - | 18 | 25.0 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 6.2 | 4.8 | -62 | -3.0 | -18.0 | 38.4 | 30.4 | 75.0 | 1.33 | 46.4 | 41.5 |
| Grace Steffen | - | 16 | 20.6 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6.4 | 9.3 | -15 | -0.8 | -7.7 | 38.2 | 50.0 | 57.1 | 0.77 | 42.6 | 39.2 |
| Kylie Cabana | - | 13 | 15.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 6.8 | -100 | -6.7 | -54.2 | 61.0 | 60.0 | 62.5 | 2.31 | 65.9 | 64.6 |
| Lanie Herbert | - | 18 | 13.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 4.5 | 4.8 | -36 | -1.8 | -23.3 | 37.0 | 0 | 75.0 | 0.78 | 44.2 | 37.0 |
| Jayda Cartagena | - | 18 | 16.1 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 1.1 | -50 | -2.5 | -24.1 | 29.9 | 27.6 | 65.0 | 0.07 | 37.3 | 34.0 |
| Abby Hayes | - | 17 | 11.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 16 | 0.8 | 17.6 | 32.0 | 22.2 | 76.2 | -0.58 | 42.2 | 34.0 |
| Mallory Elias | - | 15 | 15.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | -34 | -2.3 | -18.8 | 24.1 | 21.7 | 100.0 | -1.39 | 31.4 | 28.7 |
| Kate Donaldson | - | 13 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | -31 | -2.4 | -36.2 | 55.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -3.02 | 55.1 | 55.0 |
| Kylie Sheridan | - | 9 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 8 | 0.9 | 18.4 | 21.4 | 8.3 | 100.0 | 0.66 | 30.2 | 25.0 |
| Bellisima Lew | - | 9 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 6 | 0.6 | 18.8 | 16.7 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.66 | 31.5 | 16.7 |
| Allie Sena | - | 3 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 113.6 | 0 |
| Brynn Ohlhoff | - | 11 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.11 | 43.6 | 33.3 |
| Sofie Laird | - | 7 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -10 | -1.2 | -39.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.56 | 12.9 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG