🐻⬇️🏀

Mo.-St. Louis

Also known as: Mo.-St. Louis
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1209 (#27) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1249 (#20) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1196 (#20) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +17.1 (#33) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +18.0 (#112) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.828 (#224) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +21.2 More → 0.943 (#114) NetEff +21.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +22.0 More → 0.927 (#181) AdjNet +22.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +22.7 More → 0.936 (#177) AdjNet +22.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 53.4 More → 0.769 (#198) AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 53.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.6 | AdjD 54.2 More → 0.786 (#33) AdjO 68.6 | AdjD 54.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.883 (#40) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.879 (#34) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 109 | GP 21 More → 1291 (#17) RD 109 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Roosevelt W 54 - 52
2025-11-15 @ Wis.-Parkside L 73 - 82
2025-11-21 @ Ky. Wesleyan W 69 - 32
2025-11-25 vs Purdue Northwest W 73 - 43
2025-11-29 vs Ill. Springfield W 69 - 46
2025-12-04 @ Lewis W 64 - 62
2025-12-06 @ UIndy W 60 - 43
2025-12-09 @ Maryville (MO) W 61 - 53
2025-12-13 vs Michigan Tech L 62 - 68
2025-12-15 vs Central Mo. W 59 - 57
2026-01-02 vs Quincy W 62 - 61
2026-01-10 @ Southwest Baptist W 84 - 54
2026-01-15 vs Missouri S&T W 67 - 55
2026-01-17 vs Lincoln (MO) W 92 - 45
2026-01-24 vs Maryville (MO) W 75 - 65
2026-01-29 @ McKendree W 62 - 59
2026-01-31 @ Ill. Springfield L 68 - 75
2026-02-05 vs UIndy W 64 - 51
2026-02-07 vs Lewis W 74 - 63

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Mara Rieder - 18 31.0 19.7 9.4 1.2 0.9 2.2 2.2 14.7 16.6 80 3.8 17.0 53.4 0.0 85.7 1.38 58.8 53.4
Jayden Kuper - 19 34.7 14.7 6.6 2.7 2.3 0.0 2.4 12.3 11.6 80 3.8 13.0 45.1 37.3 82.0 -0.65 54.7 51.1
Morgan Ramthun - 19 36.6 12.6 8.6 2.4 1.0 0.1 1.9 8.6 14.2 129 5.9 21.0 55.8 12.5 71.8 0.75 60.6 56.1
Anna Costa Riera - 19 35.7 7.2 2.8 4.5 1.2 0.1 2.3 8.6 4.8 129 6.1 21.0 32.5 25.4 88.2 1.11 39.9 37.1
Jaeda Wilson - 19 21.3 6.3 3.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 5.8 3.9 88 4.0 19.7 31.8 30.8 87.2 -2.38 47.2 39.1
Lexi Hanna - 19 28.9 6.2 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 1.9 5.7 3.0 103 4.9 24.6 36.1 34.6 92.3 0.85 51.4 48.6
Mireia Casas - 10 14.9 3.6 2.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 4.1 1.5 50 4.5 22.5 26.8 26.3 81.8 -0.69 39.3 32.9
Addison Swadinsky - 11 7.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.6 1.4 -31 -2.4 -33.2 28.6 25.0 60.0 -3.28 43.5 35.7
Abby Peterson - 10 2.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 -0.1 10 0.8 30.1 16.7 0.0 50.0 0.74 21.8 16.7
Aliya Tripp - 6 4.5 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 -0.2 -4 -0.6 -16.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG