Mo. Southern St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1174 (#45) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1187 (#48) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1177 (#26) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +13.0 (#58) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +19.2 (#98) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.752 (#268) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.795 (#188) | NetEff +10.8 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.950 (#151) | AdjNet +25.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.957 (#151) | AdjNet +26.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.822 (#150) | AdjO 76.1 | AdjD 59.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.766 (#43) | AdjO 72.9 | AdjD 59.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.859 (#53) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.853 (#49) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1270 (#23) | RD 104 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Augustana (SD) | W | 86 - 84 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Mary | L | 73 - 76 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Southwestern Okla. | L | 57 - 65 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Quincy | W | 86 - 68 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | McKendree | W | 86 - 67 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Drury | L | 57 - 61 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | Truman St. | W | 96 - 82 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Southern Nazarene | W | 85 - 75 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Rogers St. | W | 84 - 67 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Central Okla. | W | 75 - 57 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Avila | W | 91 - 49 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ | Northeastern St. | W | 60 - 55 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Ark.-Fort Smith | L | 63 - 73 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Newman | W | 71 - 63 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Central Okla. | W | 85 - 81 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Rogers St. | W | 66 - 62 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Ark.-Fort Smith | W | 59 - 36 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Northeastern St. | W | 85 - 75 |
| 2026-02-02 | @ | Pittsburg St. | L | 66 - 72 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Newman | W | 72 - 51 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Emporia St. | W | 74 - 69 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Frazier | - | 20 | 29.6 | 16.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 130 | 6.5 | 25.2 | 42.1 | 35.2 | 70.2 | 0.86 | 50.5 | 45.6 |
| Ashlyn Alloway | - | 21 | 31.8 | 13.5 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 120 | 5.7 | 21.9 | 41.9 | 11.1 | 77.5 | -0.35 | 50.8 | 42.1 |
| Nariah Clay | - | 21 | 34.9 | 13.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 153 | 7.3 | 25.3 | 37.1 | 34.2 | 60.8 | -0.04 | 47.6 | 44.7 |
| Makenna Yokley | - | 21 | 21.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 52 | 2.5 | 13.1 | 44.2 | 30.8 | 81.2 | -0.88 | 54.4 | 48.6 |
| Lilly Thomas | - | 21 | 17.6 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 86 | 4.1 | 26.7 | 49.3 | 33.3 | 75.7 | 2.74 | 54.5 | 50.7 |
| Delaney Roller | - | 21 | 20.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 67 | 3.4 | 22.8 | 35.4 | 31.9 | 0 | -0.3 | 46.9 | 46.9 |
| Hattie Pyle | - | 21 | 17.4 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 98 | 4.7 | 35.5 | 42.0 | 31.2 | 75.0 | 0.75 | 52.2 | 45.1 |
| Camryn Smith | - | 21 | 16.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 108 | 5.1 | 47.6 | 41.8 | 25.0 | 42.1 | 1.27 | 43.9 | 42.7 |
| Nicole Lillard | - | 20 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 102 | 5.1 | 58.6 | 28.0 | 13.3 | 78.6 | -0.78 | 41.7 | 30.0 |
| Jacqueline Hall | - | 2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | -1.0 | -30 | -2.1 | -47.7 | 28.6 | 0 | 0 | -0.59 | 28.6 | 28.6 |
| Savannah James | - | 7 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.7 | -0.6 | -2 | -0.3 | -3.5 | 21.1 | 18.8 | 0 | -2.08 | 28.9 | 28.9 |
| Macee Matthews | - | 4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 6 | 1.5 | 54.1 | 28.6 | 20.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 35.7 | 35.7 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG