Minnesota St.
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1204 (#6) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1185 (#7) | HCA -61 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1090 (#8) | HCA -61 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.9 (#16) | HCA -2.0 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +5.8 (#16) | HCA -2.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.775 (#10) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.698 (#14) | AdjNet -5.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.705 (#14) | AdjNet -5.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.620 (#15) | AdjO 73.4 | AdjD 78.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.566 (#16) | AdjO 73.4 | AdjD 78.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.651 (#14) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.640 (#14) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1186 (#7) | RD 177 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.970 (#4) | Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast. |
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | @ | Grand Valley St. | L | 65 - 101 |
| 2026-10-31 | @ | Lake Superior St. | W | 110 - 76 |
| 2026-11-01 | @ | Northern Mich. | L | 54 - 66 |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haylee Stokes | - | 3 | 18.2 | 15.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 11.3 | 7.0 | - | - | - | - | 47.1 | 35.7 | 81.8 | - | 59.2 | 54.4 |
| Rhyan Holmgren | - | 3 | 18.1 | 10.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 9.3 | 4.0 | - | - | - | - | 39.3 | 25.0 | 90.0 | - | 49.4 | 41.1 |
| Alyvia Padgett | - | 3 | 21.1 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 5.7 | - | - | - | - | 41.7 | 0 | 83.3 | - | 46.9 | 41.7 |
| Brylee Miller | - | 3 | 18.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | - | - | - | - | 35.0 | 33.3 | 53.8 | - | 44.7 | 40.0 |
| Brooklyn Lewis | - | 3 | 17.7 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | - | - | - | - | 40.9 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 44.2 | 40.9 |
| Brielle Janssen | - | 3 | 18.7 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 3.3 | - | - | - | - | 31.8 | 0.0 | 83.3 | - | 38.6 | 31.8 |
| Natalie Mueller | - | 3 | 16.7 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 5.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | - | 46.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 47.2 | 46.7 |
| Shantell Harden | - | 3 | 16.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | - | - | - | - | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 64.3 | 60.0 |
| Amaya Pahl | - | 3 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 5.3 | - | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 55.3 | 50.0 |
| Mallory Czinano | - | 3 | 18.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 7.3 | - | - | - | - | 60.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 59.7 | 60.0 |
| Hannah Leverson | - | 3 | 14.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | - | - | - | - | 37.5 | 0.0 | 66.7 | - | 42.9 | 37.5 |
| Abby Neumiller | - | 2 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG