Minnesota St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1326 (#6) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1409 (#2) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1191 (#23) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +40.2 (#1) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +35.7 (#22) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.958 (#148) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.984 (#82) | NetEff +31.4 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.001 (#485) | NetEff -44.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.995 (#55) | AdjNet +45.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.996 (#57) | AdjNet +45.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.953 (#36) | AdjO 93.8 | AdjD 60.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.896 (#6) | AdjO 81.9 | AdjD 58.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.947 (#11) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.941 (#6) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1288 (#18) | RD 147 | GP 6 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Northern St. | W | 81 - 52 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Jamestown | W | 107 - 60 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Minn.-Crookston | W | 98 - 70 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | MSU Moorhead | W | 97 - 64 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Sioux Falls | W | 75 - 52 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Southwest Minn. St. | W | 79 - 71 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Bremer | - | 6 | 23.4 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 17.8 | 7.8 | 299 | 13.0 | 62.1 | 42.1 | 24.0 | 78.3 | 5.05 | 48.7 | 44.9 |
| Mackenzie Schweim | - | 6 | 20.7 | 12.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 225 | 9.8 | 49.9 | 40.0 | 26.9 | 93.8 | 5.2 | 51.4 | 45.4 |
| Ava Stier | - | 6 | 19.2 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 256 | 11.1 | 65.8 | 48.9 | 57.1 | 83.3 | 0.81 | 61.7 | 57.8 |
| Rhyan Holmgren | - | 6 | 18.8 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 268 | 11.7 | 69.8 | 37.5 | 66.7 | 77.8 | 1.77 | 49.3 | 39.6 |
| Haylee Stokes | - | 6 | 15.6 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 217 | 9.4 | 77.0 | 39.4 | 25.0 | 95.2 | 0.7 | 56.8 | 42.4 |
| Hannah Herzig | - | 6 | 19.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 365 | 15.9 | 77.6 | 43.2 | 25.0 | 72.2 | 5.61 | 51.2 | 44.6 |
| Adeline Kent | - | 6 | 19.8 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 209 | 9.1 | 61.0 | 41.9 | 44.4 | 50.0 | -0.31 | 49.0 | 48.4 |
| Mallory Czinano | - | 6 | 13.6 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 175 | 8.0 | 65.7 | 45.8 | 0 | 76.9 | 2.06 | 53.8 | 45.8 |
| Hannah Leverson | - | 6 | 12.9 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 87 | 4.0 | 41.1 | 47.1 | 44.4 | 100.0 | 1.59 | 64.0 | 58.8 |
| Shantell Harden | - | 6 | 15.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 105 | 5.2 | 40.5 | 29.2 | 0.0 | 57.1 | -0.99 | 33.2 | 29.2 |
| Natalie Mueller | - | 5 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 5 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 1.3 | 64.3 | 60.0 |
| Payton Morgan | - | 1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | -7 | -0.6 | -23.7 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.57 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Delaynie Luneckas | - | 6 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 51 | 2.4 | 26.0 | 60.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 1.46 | 58.9 | 60.0 |
| Addison Hoof | - | 5 | 6.7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 54 | 2.8 | 36.9 | 0.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.79 | 53.2 | 0.0 |
| Lucy Leininger | - | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 129 | 8.1 | 116.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.92 | 0 | 0 |
| Lilly Nuytten | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG