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Minn. Duluth

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Minn. Duluth
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1035 (#130) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1037 (#202) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 961 (#464) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +11.7 (#82) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +14.0 (#110) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.817 (#152) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +44.1 More → 0.993 (#79) NetEff +44.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +27.8 More → 0.961 (#65) AdjNet +27.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +28.0 More → 0.963 (#66) AdjNet +28.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 85.1 | AdjD 64.4 More → 0.868 (#67) AdjO 85.1 | AdjD 64.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.6 | AdjD 70.2 More → 0.701 (#70) AdjO 79.6 | AdjD 70.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.712 (#131) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.699 (#133) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 24 More → 959 (#261) RD 93 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs East Central W 71 - 66
2025-11-15 @ Southeastern Okla. W 84 - 61
2025-11-18 vs St. Scholastica W 89 - 58
2025-11-21 vs Michigan Tech L 48 - 57
2025-11-22 vs Lake Superior St. W 72 - 69
2025-11-25 vs Bemidji St. W 77 - 67
2025-11-29 @ Northern Mich. L 53 - 79
2025-12-03 vs Minn.-Crookston W 99 - 86
2025-12-06 @ MSU Moorhead L 91 - 92
2025-12-11 vs Northern St. W 79 - 62
2025-12-13 @ Jamestown L 70 - 71
2025-12-18 vs Minot St. W 67 - 58
2025-12-20 vs Mary W 80 - 65
2026-01-03 @ Bemidji St. W 89 - 77
2026-01-09 vs Sioux Falls L 89 - 93
2026-01-10 vs Southwest Minn. St. L 62 - 71
2026-01-16 @ Minnesota St. L 77 - 80
2026-01-17 @ St. Cloud St. L 87 - 92
2026-01-23 vs Winona St. W 71 - 50
2026-01-24 vs Concordia-St. Paul W 71 - 61
2026-01-30 @ Wayne St. (NE) L 70 - 77
2026-01-31 @ Augustana (SD) L 84 - 96
2026-02-05 @ Mary W 82 - 70
2026-02-07 @ Minot St. L 83 - 85

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kole Hanson - 22 24.2 15.5 2.0 1.4 1.4 0.0 1.9 10.3 8.1 -5 -0.2 -1.1 46.5 39.6 87.4 0.13 62.7 55.3
Caleb Siwek - 24 33.0 14.3 3.6 1.5 0.8 0.0 1.2 11.6 7.4 71 3.0 11.4 42.7 32.5 77.3 -0.51 54.1 49.5
Noah Paulson - 24 27.4 12.2 4.7 1.9 1.1 0.5 1.8 8.1 10.6 66 2.8 12.7 58.2 35.9 84.1 0.02 66.1 61.9
Jackson Fowlkes - 24 23.9 9.8 3.1 1.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 8.5 5.5 59 2.5 15.2 44.3 30.4 73.7 1.08 53.7 51.2
Nick Katona - 24 27.1 8.7 6.8 1.2 1.0 0.4 1.4 6.8 10.1 47 2.0 8.7 43.6 31.9 74.6 2.87 55.3 50.6
Matt Thompson - 24 27.9 8.3 4.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.2 6.7 7.6 32 1.4 7.0 49.1 33.3 45.5 2.67 54.0 54.3
Daniel Molhoek - 24 10.1 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.5 3.1 2.8 10 0.4 4.8 44.6 27.6 69.2 -2.52 52.1 50.0
Owen Leach - 14 9.7 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.6 2.4 2.8 11 0.8 11.3 38.2 16.7 62.5 0.8 46.3 41.2
Andrew Rader - 3 3.4 2.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.7 - - - 50.0 0.0 33.3 - 46.3 50.0
Wyatt McBeth - 23 11.5 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.9 2.9 55 2.4 21.6 38.6 41.2 37.5 -0.91 46.0 46.6
Jaden Morgan - 7 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.9 -3 -0.4 -19.5 55.6 50.0 0 -0.9 72.2 72.2
Peyton Rogers - 22 12.8 1.5 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 3.7 17 2.1 6.1 16.0 22.2 63.2 1.11 40.7 20.0
Karon Abdullah - 3 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1 0.3 13.6 0 0 0 0.08 0 0
Cole Lahti - 7 2.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 -4 -0.6 -26.0 0 0 0 -0.9 0 0
Billy DeMars - 1 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Brooks Johnson - 1 3.3 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 56 2.9 20.0 0.0 0.0 0 1.36 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG