Millikin
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 924 (#375) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 982 (#352) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 893 (#616) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +5.3 (#134) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -5.4 (#435) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.562 (#428) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.298 (#415) | NetEff -6.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.843 (#244) | AdjNet +14.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.849 (#243) | AdjNet +14.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.695 (#242) | AdjO 71.8 | AdjD 62.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.408 (#531) | AdjO 59.4 | AdjD 63.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.385 (#468) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.377 (#479) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 873 (#438) | RD 102 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | @ | Rose-Hulman | W | 71 - 68 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Wis.-Whitewater | L | 50 - 70 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Trinity (TX) | W | 61 - 54 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | DePauw | L | 53 - 80 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | WashU | L | 55 - 75 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Elmhurst | L | 60 - 64 |
| 2025-12-09 | vs | Knox | W | 90 - 83 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Augustana (IL) | L | 37 - 76 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | MSOE | L | 48 - 53 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Eureka | W | 85 - 25 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Carroll (WI) | L | 64 - 82 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Ill. Wesleyan | L | 48 - 76 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Carthage | W | 77 - 67 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | North Central (IL) | L | 69 - 80 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Ill. Wesleyan | L | 54 - 86 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Elmhurst | L | 63 - 72 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Carthage | L | 54 - 72 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkel Johnson | - | 16 | 27.4 | 16.7 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 11.7 | 10.8 | - | - | - | 59.4 | 0 | 54.9 | - | 59.8 | 59.4 |
| Bella Dudley | - | 17 | 31.8 | 13.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 5.1 | 11.1 | 7.1 | - | - | - | 42.6 | 31.0 | 75.7 | - | 53.0 | 47.3 |
| Hannah Ermeling | - | 15 | 19.1 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.7 | 1.1 | - | - | - | 29.4 | 31.1 | 82.4 | - | 47.0 | 42.9 |
| Tatum Young | - | 17 | 24.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | - | - | - | 29.2 | 26.5 | 78.9 | - | 40.2 | 35.9 |
| Nylaia Carter | - | 9 | 19.0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 78 | 3.5 | 17.9 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 85.2 | 2.56 | 36.0 | 20.0 |
| Izzy Hay | - | 17 | 22.0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | - | - | - | 45.1 | 0 | 66.7 | - | 47.7 | 45.1 |
| Christina Rice | - | 16 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 2.9 | - | - | - | 41.2 | 25.0 | 78.9 | - | 50.5 | 44.1 |
| Natalie Gartlan | - | 12 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | - | - | - | 37.5 | 33.3 | 66.7 | - | 50.4 | 48.8 |
| Kyleigh Heimsness | - | 14 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 35.0 | 25.0 | - | 48.1 | 48.9 |
| Rachel Holthaus | - | 17 | 22.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 | - | - | - | 34.2 | 31.6 | 80.0 | - | 47.2 | 42.1 |
| Quincenia Jackson | - | 8 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 3.1 | - | - | - | 61.5 | 0 | 75.0 | - | 64.4 | 61.5 |
| Rilee Riggs | - | 12 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 3.6 | - | - | - | 64.7 | 0 | 75.0 | - | 66.6 | 64.7 |
| Ari Williams | - | 7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 143 | 6.5 | 31.2 | 44.4 | 0 | 40.0 | 3.1 | 44.6 | 44.4 |
| Avelina McKinzie | - | 11 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | - | - | - | 57.1 | 25.0 | 0 | - | 64.3 | 64.3 |
| Maggie Schrage | - | 3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 17.4 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG