Midwestern St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 920 (#361) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 951 (#337) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 935 (#498) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.0 (#158) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +1.6 (#301) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.643 (#257) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.275 (#266) | NetEff -8.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.905 (#129) | AdjNet +19.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.877 (#168) | AdjNet +17.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.763 (#160) | AdjO 82.3 | AdjD 69.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.485 (#335) | AdjO 72.3 | AdjD 73.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.468 (#339) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.466 (#338) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 933 (#296) | RD 105 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | UCCS | W | 97 - 90 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | CSU Pueblo | L | 60 - 72 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Adams St. | L | 91 - 99 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Western Colo. | L | 78 - 82 |
| 2025-11-24 | vs | Dallas Christian | W | 97 - 74 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Tarleton St. | L | 57 - 67 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Angelo St. | W | 77 - 70 |
| 2025-12-05 | vs | UT Permian Basin | W | 96 - 86 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Okla. Christian | L | 75 - 83 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Ark.-Fort Smith | L | 65 - 79 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Pittsburg St. | L | 55 - 66 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | St. Mary's (TX) | L | 85 - 88 |
| 2026-01-04 | @ | St. Edward's | L | 68 - 90 |
| 2026-01-08 | vs | Lubbock Christian | L | 68 - 73 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Eastern N.M. | L | 60 - 84 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | West Tex. A&M | W | 70 - 68 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | DBU | L | 60 - 84 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Cameron | W | 86 - 79 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Okla. Christian | W | 73 - 68 |
| 2026-02-03 | @ | Lubbock Christian | L | 57 - 77 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Texas-Dallas | L | 74 - 75 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan McDowell | - | 1 | 37.1 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 20.0 | -64 | -2.9 | -9.7 | 54.5 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0.45 | 76.9 | 63.6 |
| Tyler Halligan | - | 1 | 37.4 | 21.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 10.0 | 18 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 40.9 | 33.3 | 40.0 | -0.65 | 43.4 | 43.2 |
| Jordan Kuac | - | 1 | 30.3 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 16.0 | 17 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 83.3 | 100.0 | 83.3 | 2.96 | 104.2 | 108.3 |
| Jordan Mizell | - | 1 | 30.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 83.3 | 0 | 80.0 | - | 85.4 | 83.3 |
| Orlando Horton, Jr. | - | 16 | 24.3 | 12.2 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 48.8 | 38.9 | 84.6 | 0.03 | 61.9 | 54.3 |
| Terrance Ramirez | - | 17 | 25.4 | 11.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 9.4 | 6.8 | -66 | -3.7 | -21.9 | 44.4 | 33.3 | 73.2 | -2.58 | 54.5 | 51.2 |
| Cam Thomas | - | 1 | 33.2 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 27.3 | 0.0 | 83.3 | - | 40.3 | 27.3 |
| Jonathan Jackson | - | 18 | 30.2 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | -35 | -1.8 | -12.6 | 43.7 | 43.3 | 79.2 | -1.11 | 61.6 | 59.5 |
| Mason Mottashed | - | 1 | 36.4 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | -40 | -1.8 | -7.6 | 50.0 | 40.0 | 100.0 | -1.83 | 72.7 | 66.7 |
| Davyon Butler | - | 19 | 21.2 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 8.6 | 4.7 | -20 | -1.1 | -9.7 | 34.8 | 16.1 | 67.6 | 2.38 | 43.8 | 37.5 |
| Charles McClennahan, Jr. | - | 17 | 21.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 15 | 1.7 | 378.9 | 42.5 | 22.6 | 59.5 | 1.12 | 47.6 | 45.1 |
| Tehshaundre Cole | - | 14 | 20.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 9.0 | -36 | -2.1 | -21.9 | 66.2 | 0 | 30.0 | -0.81 | 59.3 | 66.2 |
| Jordan Reed | - | 19 | 20.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 5.8 | 4.5 | -67 | -3.4 | -25.5 | 45.0 | 25.9 | 63.9 | -2.16 | 51.2 | 48.2 |
| Quincy Scott | - | 1 | 16.3 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -36 | -1.6 | -7.0 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.93 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Kade Douglas | - | 1 | 22.9 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 22.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 30.4 | 22.2 |
| Andy Sigiscar | - | 1 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| DaCannon Wesley | - | 15 | 16.5 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 16 | 1.1 | 12.6 | 54.2 | 38.9 | 65.4 | 3.37 | 62.5 | 60.2 |
| Kaia Isaac | - | 1 | 24.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 28.6 | 25.0 | 0 | - | 35.7 | 35.7 |
| Leroy Kelly IV | - | 1 | 23.4 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 16.7 | 50.0 | 100.0 | - | 36.3 | 25.0 |
| Charles Fofanah | - | 18 | 16.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | -82 | -4.3 | -41.9 | 27.5 | 31.8 | 87.5 | -1.76 | 41.4 | 36.2 |
| David Shelia | - | 1 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -27 | -1.2 | -25.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 66.7 | -0.49 | 60.2 | 50.0 |
| Matyas Vrabel | - | 1 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Antwan Taylor | - | 17 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.1 | 22.2 | 62.5 | -0.73 | 50.0 | 47.1 |
| Ocypher Owens | - | 1 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 30.7 | 25.0 |
| Kadon Jackson | - | 13 | 11.2 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 4.2 | -33 | -2.4 | -28.8 | 46.7 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.6 | 47.7 | 46.7 |
| Vojin Mastilovic | - | 8 | 11.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 47.4 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 0.49 | 48.9 | 50.0 |
| Caiden Reed | - | 4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.4 | 48.8 | 80.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 90.0 | 90.0 |
| Levi Rutledge | - | 7 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 14 | 2.0 | 124.4 | 41.7 | 28.6 | 50.0 | 1.42 | 50.5 | 50.0 |
| Dawlton Grant | - | 1 | 17.1 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | -10 | -0.5 | -5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.09 | 0 | 0 |
| Joanis Koulisianis | - | 1 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -16 | -0.7 | -4.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Christian Still | - | 1 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -2.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Reese Strawn | - | 1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -75 | -3.6 | -37.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.41 | 0 | 0 |
| Damion Porter Jr. | - | 1 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 26 | 2.0 | 28.4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.74 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG