Middlebury
Model Outputs
2024-2025
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1155 (#22) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1176 (#42) | - |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +14.5 (#54) | HCA +2.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.817 (#295) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.727 (#151) | NetEff +7.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.928 (#186) | AdjNet +22.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.930 (#187) | AdjNet +21.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.758 (#199) | AdjO 66.9 | AdjD 54.4 |
2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | vs | Millikin | W | 76 - 45 |
| 2024-11-17 | @ | UChicago | L | 41 - 66 |
| 2024-11-20 | @ | Skidmore | W | 56 - 43 |
| 2024-11-23 | vs | Union (NY) | W | 72 - 47 |
| 2024-11-26 | vs | VTSU Castleton | W | 75 - 47 |
| 2024-12-01 | @ | Connecticut Col. | W | 62 - 51 |
| 2024-12-06 | @ | Keene St. | W | 74 - 59 |
| 2024-12-07 | @ | Norwich | W | 80 - 42 |
| 2024-12-29 | @ | NYU | L | 49 - 73 |
| 2024-12-31 | @ | Springfield | L | 61 - 67 |
| 2025-01-01 | vs | Ithaca | W | 65 - 52 |
| 2025-01-04 | @ | Oswego St. | W | 66 - 49 |
| 2025-01-07 | vs | MIT | W | 62 - 56 |
| 2025-01-10 | vs | Trinity (CT) | W | 65 - 52 |
| 2025-01-11 | vs | Wesleyan (CT) | W | 82 - 66 |
| 2025-01-17 | @ | Connecticut Col. | W | 70 - 55 |
| 2025-01-18 | @ | Tufts | L | 63 - 72 |
| 2025-01-25 | vs | Williams | W | 70 - 54 |
| 2025-01-28 | @ | St. Lawrence | L | 52 - 62 |
| 2025-02-02 | @ | Bates | L | 56 - 66 |
| 2025-02-07 | @ | Bowdoin | L | 38 - 64 |
| 2025-02-08 | @ | Colby | L | 72 - 75 |
| 2025-02-14 | vs | Amherst | L | 55 - 66 |
| 2025-02-15 | vs | Hamilton | W | 77 - 72 |
| 2025-02-22 | @ | Colby | L | 97 - 100 |
2025 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Mustafaj | - | 23 | 33.8 | 24.0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 20.4 | 8.7 | 112 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 45.0 | 36.8 | 76.4 | 1.19 | 53.3 | 49.9 |
| Augusta Dixon | - | 25 | 34.6 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 10.5 | 14.2 | 84 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 44.5 | 0.0 | 59.6 | 0.63 | 47.8 | 44.5 |
| Calie Messina | - | 25 | 30.1 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 52 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 40.1 | 42.5 | 81.8 | 0.28 | 54.5 | 52.6 |
| C Carrafiello | - | 2 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | -1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 53.8 | 0 | 0 | -0.11 | 53.8 | 53.8 |
| Cath Carrafiello | - | 1 | 34.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | -1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 42.9 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.12 | 44.4 | 42.9 |
| Keeley Baglio | - | 24 | 16.5 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 38 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 38.7 | 27.6 | 78.9 | 0.3 | 49.4 | 44.5 |
| Kale Tornwini | - | 24 | 15.2 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 22 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 44.4 | 26.7 | 57.1 | 0.07 | 47.3 | 45.8 |
| Brooke Collins | - | 25 | 20.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 33.9 | 0.0 | 62.5 | 0.41 | 36.1 | 33.9 |
| Emma Kirck | - | 18 | 12.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 24 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 30.6 | 14.3 | 70.0 | 0.42 | 37.1 | 31.9 |
| Leah Poorman | - | 25 | 9.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 | -3 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 36.6 | 11.1 | 64.3 | 0.05 | 42.4 | 37.8 |
| Catherine Carrafiello | - | 22 | 11.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | -1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 30.4 | 0 | 35.0 | -0.31 | 31.9 | 30.4 |
| Teagan Lind | - | 22 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | -11 | -0.9 | -1.0 | 40.6 | 31.2 | 100.0 | -0.18 | 50.2 | 48.4 |
| Sarah Chenette | - | 22 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 28.1 | 25.0 | 64.3 | -0.06 | 38.0 | 31.2 |
| Gabby Stuart | - | 23 | 13.1 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 36 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 12.9 | 4.5 | 56.2 | 0.25 | 18.8 | 13.7 |
| Katie Hollensteiner | - | 20 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 19 | 1.9 | 7.8 | 20.0 | 16.7 | 0 | 0.04 | 26.7 | 26.7 |
| Amanda Hill | - | 18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 111 | 10.1 | 19.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 0 |
| Meghan Mcdonald | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG