🐻⬇️🏀

Messiah

Also known as: Messiah
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1112 (#59) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1214 (#20) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → +13.6 (#65) HCA +2.4
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.921 (#221) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +29.0 More → 0.984 (#18) NetEff +29.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +21.9 More → 0.926 (#192) AdjNet +21.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +21.1 More → 0.924 (#196) AdjNet +21.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 53.4 More → 0.738 (#213) AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 53.4

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-12 @ DeSales W 61 - 46
2024-11-15 vs Washington Col. W 52 - 38
2024-11-16 vs Rowan W 60 - 44
2024-11-20 vs Penn St. Harrisburg W 54 - 48
2024-11-23 vs Mary Washington W 66 - 40
2024-11-26 vs Dickinson W 52 - 36
2024-12-04 @ Gettysburg L 47 - 61
2024-12-14 @ Juniata W 65 - 50
2024-12-29 @ Catholic L 47 - 62
2024-12-30 vs Husson W 56 - 39
2025-01-04 @ Penn St.-Altoona W 60 - 47
2025-01-08 vs Albright W 75 - 53
2025-01-11 @ Hood W 59 - 44
2025-01-15 vs Alvernia W 71 - 24
2025-01-18 @ York (PA) W 67 - 47
2025-01-22 @ Widener W 73 - 62
2025-01-25 vs Eastern W 71 - 40
2025-01-29 vs Stevenson W 76 - 51
2025-02-01 vs Hood W 70 - 43
2025-02-05 @ Alvernia W 70 - 50
2025-02-08 @ Albright W 68 - 43
2025-02-12 vs Widener W 76 - 56
2025-02-15 vs York (PA) W 61 - 52
2025-02-18 @ Stevenson W 60 - 31
2025-02-22 @ Eastern W 71 - 37
2025-02-26 vs Albright W 78 - 52
2025-03-01 vs Widener W 74 - 46
2025-03-07 vs Wash. & Jeff. L 72 - 76

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
REESE HARDEN - 1 44.0 23.0 9.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 14.0 21.0 157 5.8 6.1 42.9 0.0 78.6 0.92 57.0 42.9
LIV MONTURO - 1 37.0 20.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 12.0 13.0 158 4.4 5.2 75.0 0 50.0 0.35 72.7 75.0
CHLOE MILANESI - 1 44.0 9.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 7.0 10.0 194 7.2 8.5 57.1 0.0 100.0 1.59 60.5 57.1
EMMYFAITH WOOD - 1 29.0 8.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 2.0 76 2.5 3.8 37.5 25.0 50.0 -0.26 45.0 43.8
HOPE COOK - 1 14.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 -2.0 89 2.7 5.4 28.6 16.7 0 0.55 35.7 35.7
SYDNEY HOFFMAN - 1 19.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 6.0 74 2.4 4.6 66.7 0 0 0.19 66.7 66.7
CHARLOTTE MILANESI - 1 28.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 -1.0 210 5.8 6.4 0.0 0 100.0 1.25 34.7 0.0
RAEGAN FOGARTY - 1 8.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 69 2.1 4.6 0.0 0 50.0 0.2 26.6 0.0
Lydia Ehst - 26 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 -20 -1.2 -18.4 42.9 0 75.0 -0.28 51.4 42.9
Unity Miller - 26 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 - - - 33.3 0.0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Isabella Ipri - 24 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 50.0 - 14.8 0.0
BROOKE FENCHEL - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35 1.4 3.9 0 0 0 -0.31 0 0
JUSTINE FORBES - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 10 0.4 1.1 0.0 0.0 0 -0.43 0.0 0.0
AINSLEY BELL - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40 1.1 3.2 0 0 0 0.07 0 0
Patricia Monroe - 15 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
EMMA FETTERMAN - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -23 -1.8 -10.9 0.0 0.0 0 -0.36 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG