🐻⬇️🏀

Mary

Also known as: Mary
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1086 (#69) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1097 (#82) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +17.9 (#31) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.705 (#289) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +7.0 More → 0.710 (#160) NetEff +7.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +25.6 More → 0.951 (#150) AdjNet +25.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +26.1 More → 0.956 (#153) AdjNet +26.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.8 | AdjD 58.7 More → 0.825 (#147) AdjO 75.8 | AdjD 58.7

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-14 vs Dickinson St. W 70 - 56
2024-11-21 @ Northern St. L 71 - 73
2024-11-23 @ Northeastern St. L 62 - 73
2024-11-29 vs Saint Leo W 71 - 62
2024-11-30 @ Tampa W 75 - 73
2024-12-07 vs MSU Moorhead L 43 - 65
2024-12-11 vs Minot St. W 89 - 69
2024-12-14 @ Minn.-Crookston W 68 - 54
2024-12-17 @ St. Cloud St. W 73 - 55
2024-12-21 vs Bemidji St. W 62 - 50
2025-01-03 vs Minnesota St. L 63 - 69
2025-01-04 vs Winona St. W 69 - 48
2025-01-10 @ Augustana (SD) L 52 - 61
2025-01-11 @ Wayne St. (NE) W 53 - 51
2025-01-17 @ Sioux Falls L 72 - 79
2025-01-18 @ Southwest Minn. St. L 68 - 77
2025-01-24 vs Minn. Duluth W 71 - 59
2025-01-25 vs Concordia-St. Paul L 48 - 73
2025-01-30 @ Bemidji St. W 69 - 51
2025-02-01 vs Minn.-Crookston W 78 - 66
2025-02-05 vs St. Cloud St. W 83 - 57
2025-02-08 @ MSU Moorhead L 65 - 67
2025-02-14 @ Winona St. W 70 - 61
2025-02-15 @ Minnesota St. L 75 - 91
2025-02-21 vs Southwest Minn. St. L 77 - 86
2025-02-22 vs Sioux Falls W 66 - 58
2025-02-26 vs Minn. Duluth W 64 - 43
2025-03-02 @ Minnesota St. L 66 - 90

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Bergen Kinnebrew - 27 28.6 15.5 4.0 1.9 1.3 0.3 2.8 12.5 7.8 67 1.7 1.9 38.8 35.2 84.4 0.06 52.4 44.4
Chloe Pfau - 28 24.8 8.8 3.6 1.6 1.8 0.4 1.8 8.6 5.9 25 0.6 0.7 35.0 32.4 71.7 -0.05 47.1 44.2
Ryleigh Wacha - 28 23.7 8.1 5.5 2.3 1.6 0.2 2.3 7.3 8.1 -42 -1.6 -2.5 43.4 34.2 46.8 -0.19 50.1 49.8
Moriku Hakim - 28 15.6 7.6 6.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.6 6.0 8.4 -28 -1.0 -2.0 45.0 0 61.4 -0.03 50.1 45.0
Emily Jaenke - 28 15.6 6.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.2 6.2 1.5 -2 -0.1 -0.1 37.4 35.0 76.9 -0.06 52.6 51.4
Addison Rozell - 28 21.6 5.5 6.1 1.0 0.7 1.6 0.8 4.3 9.8 -22 -0.8 -1.1 49.6 25.0 66.0 0.06 54.3 50.8
Eden Fridley - 28 26.0 4.8 2.0 2.2 1.0 0.4 1.8 5.8 2.8 57 1.4 1.7 28.2 26.5 95.2 -0.26 38.9 35.0
Anna Lenzen - 28 15.2 4.4 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.5 -18 -0.4 -0.6 40.8 35.7 73.2 -0.14 51.2 45.6
Ava Interrante - 28 18.5 4.2 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.0 2.1 4.8 3.4 -45 -1.7 -2.7 29.6 21.4 65.8 -0.1 38.6 34.1
Allison Undlin - 26 3.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.7 29 1.1 2.0 40.6 16.7 100.0 0.16 44.1 42.2
Cassie Erickson - 27 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 71 2.6 9.8 50.0 33.3 50.0 0.42 53.9 53.6
Zoe Velde - 28 2.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.8 6 0.4 3.6 31.6 30.0 50.0 0.03 40.9 39.5
Brenna Dick - 27 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 44 2.6 17.1 33.3 28.6 0 0.24 44.4 44.4

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG