🐻⬇️🏀

Mary

Also known as: Mary
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1182 (#38) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1216 (#36) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1160 (#30) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +19.3 (#23) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +17.3 (#118) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.705 (#289) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +10.2 More → 0.770 (#202) NetEff +10.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +25.6 More → 0.951 (#150) AdjNet +25.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +26.1 More → 0.956 (#153) AdjNet +26.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.8 | AdjD 58.7 More → 0.825 (#147) AdjO 75.8 | AdjD 58.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.4 | AdjD 63.5 More → 0.729 (#65) AdjO 74.4 | AdjD 63.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.866 (#52) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.852 (#50) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 27 More → 1219 (#35) RD 93 | GP 27

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Mont. St. Billings W 81 - 71
2025-11-08 @ UT Tyler W 68 - 48
2025-11-09 vs CSU Pueblo W 73 - 44
2025-11-14 @ Central Mo. W 65 - 55
2025-11-15 vs Mo. Southern St. W 76 - 73
2025-11-18 vs Dickinson St. W 81 - 54
2025-11-25 vs Minot St. W 82 - 69
2025-11-28 @ Western Wash. L 63 - 72
2025-11-29 @ Central Wash. L 82 - 89
2025-12-04 vs Northern St. W 81 - 63
2025-12-06 @ Jamestown L 58 - 60
2025-12-11 vs Minn.-Crookston W 84 - 68
2025-12-13 vs MSU Moorhead W 84 - 78
2025-12-20 @ Minn. Duluth L 65 - 80
2025-12-31 vs Bismarck St. W 100 - 59
2026-01-03 @ Minot St. W 79 - 64
2026-01-10 vs St. Cloud St. W 79 - 67
2026-01-16 @ Sioux Falls W 83 - 79
2026-01-17 @ Southwest Minn. St. L 75 - 89
2026-01-23 vs Wayne St. (NE) W 91 - 87
2026-01-24 vs Augustana (SD) W 67 - 55
2026-01-30 @ Winona St. W 66 - 58
2026-01-31 @ Concordia-St. Paul L 69 - 83
2026-02-05 vs Minn. Duluth W 76 - 66
2026-02-07 vs Bemidji St. W 85 - 54

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Bergen Kinnebrew - 23 32.8 23.0 4.9 3.7 2.0 0.5 3.0 14.6 16.3 87 3.5 9.6 46.1 36.0 89.4 -1.39 61.8 50.9
Allison Undlin - 25 27.2 15.6 7.9 0.5 1.0 1.8 1.7 10.7 14.4 111 4.1 13.3 60.4 52.4 77.2 3.0 66.5 64.6
Chloe Pfau - 25 29.3 9.8 5.1 2.6 1.2 0.4 2.0 8.4 8.7 85 3.1 9.9 39.3 32.6 76.7 2.33 53.1 50.0
Anna Lenzen - 24 28.8 8.7 4.1 1.6 0.9 0.5 1.5 8.2 6.1 106 4.1 13.4 40.9 35.9 76.7 0.96 48.2 44.4
Emily Jaenke - 25 22.2 7.0 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.7 5.7 4.4 112 4.1 19.0 40.8 42.0 84.2 1.78 57.9 55.6
Eden Fridley - 25 28.2 5.8 3.9 4.0 1.1 0.3 2.2 5.9 7.1 75 2.8 8.6 29.3 29.3 68.6 0.77 42.8 37.4
Cassie Erickson - 25 16.4 4.0 2.3 1.7 0.4 0.6 1.2 3.9 3.8 66 2.4 15.7 40.8 29.0 55.6 -1.71 46.7 45.4
Chloe Nuss - 16 12.8 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.9 2.0 3.2 51 2.8 26.5 37.5 46.7 76.2 -0.0 57.0 48.4
Grace Richardson - 7 7.6 2.7 1.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.9 2.0 3.0 1 0.1 3.6 50.0 100.0 44.4 -1.34 52.9 53.6
Tory Jennissen - 6 4.4 2.5 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 3.0 -22 -3.1 -101.5 62.5 0 62.5 -0.33 65.1 62.5
Chloe Netzinger - 7 5.3 2.0 1.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.1 1.7 -22 -2.8 -89.6 33.3 33.3 75.0 -1.33 41.8 36.7
Brenna Dick - 16 7.1 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 57 3.4 33.1 45.5 28.6 66.7 2.4 52.8 50.0
Senna Mooijekind - 7 4.4 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 -16 -2.0 -60.3 0.0 0.0 50.0 -0.4 14.8 0.0
Mashae Miller - 7 4.2 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.7 -0.9 -25 -3.1 -125.5 0.0 0.0 50.0 -0.3 8.5 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG