🐻⬇️🏀

Mary

Also known as: Mary
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 930 (#350) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 859 (#489) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 810 (#593) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +1.3 (#214) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +2.4 (#284) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.210 (#482) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +65.4 More → 0.999 (#28) NetEff +65.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +1.6 More → 0.545 (#398) AdjNet +1.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +1.8 More → 0.553 (#395) AdjNet +1.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 76.5 | AdjD 74.6 More → 0.543 (#384) AdjO 76.5 | AdjD 74.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.0 | AdjD 76.0 More → 0.453 (#392) AdjO 74.0 | AdjD 76.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.394 (#404) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.384 (#409) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 95 | GP 24 More → 752 (#482) RD 95 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Northwestern Okla. L 63 - 83
2025-11-15 vs Okla. Baptist L 76 - 94
2025-11-19 @ Chadron St. L 82 - 83
2025-11-25 vs Minot St. W 78 - 73
2025-11-28 vs South Dakota Mines W 82 - 71
2025-11-29 vs Black Hills St. L 74 - 85
2025-12-04 vs Northern St. L 68 - 87
2025-12-06 @ Jamestown L 91 - 99
2025-12-11 vs Minn.-Crookston W 79 - 54
2025-12-13 vs MSU Moorhead W 96 - 90
2025-12-18 @ Bemidji St. L 77 - 89
2025-12-20 @ Minn. Duluth L 65 - 80
2025-12-31 vs Bismarck St. W 99 - 67
2026-01-03 @ Minot St. L 83 - 86
2026-01-09 vs Minnesota St. L 65 - 68
2026-01-10 vs St. Cloud St. L 60 - 72
2026-01-16 @ Sioux Falls L 79 - 90
2026-01-17 @ Southwest Minn. St. L 48 - 76
2026-01-23 vs Wayne St. (NE) L 74 - 91
2026-01-24 vs Augustana (SD) L 46 - 78
2026-01-30 @ Winona St. L 80 - 84
2026-01-31 @ Concordia-St. Paul L 79 - 92
2026-02-05 vs Minn. Duluth L 70 - 82
2026-02-07 vs Bemidji St. L 73 - 74

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kelton Coleman - 24 23.6 13.2 3.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 1.8 10.9 8.5 -162 -6.8 -40.7 44.1 29.3 69.7 -1.21 52.6 48.7
Cayden Redfield - 24 17.3 9.0 4.0 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.4 7.0 6.5 -120 -5.0 -37.7 46.4 36.4 66.7 -0.03 57.1 54.8
Noah Thomas - 24 19.7 7.3 2.4 1.7 1.3 0.2 1.2 8.0 3.7 -62 -2.6 -17.6 33.5 29.7 57.1 -0.02 43.7 42.7
Andre Austin - 17 26.0 7.1 3.0 2.9 0.6 0.1 1.8 5.5 6.5 -104 -6.1 -201.5 44.7 34.8 56.9 -1.93 52.0 48.9
Tshawn Bois - 23 18.3 7.1 5.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.0 7.1 5.7 -160 -7.0 -94.6 31.1 30.6 65.9 -3.83 44.8 41.5
Jackson Ware - 24 21.5 7.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.7 1.3 5.7 6.6 -94 -3.9 -26.4 45.3 37.2 68.8 -2.32 58.0 56.9
Tamarrein Henderson - 24 22.7 6.5 3.8 1.2 0.8 0.5 1.4 6.5 4.9 -132 -5.5 -31.9 36.8 28.2 54.8 -2.01 45.3 43.2
Amare Jackson - 20 17.8 6.2 2.4 1.1 0.9 0.1 1.1 5.2 4.5 -41 -2.0 -18.1 45.2 36.0 52.0 0.95 54.3 53.8
Alex Dvorak - 19 11.7 5.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.8 4.7 1.9 -85 -4.5 -28.2 46.1 41.1 100.0 -0.9 60.8 59.0
Parker Brodina - 18 20.3 5.6 3.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.9 4.9 4.0 -108 -6.0 -30.2 38.2 29.0 93.3 1.48 52.3 48.3
Kenny Gonzalez - 5 21.5 5.4 2.2 2.4 1.0 0.2 2.0 4.8 4.4 -16 -3.2 -36.7 45.8 0.0 55.6 -0.35 48.3 45.8
Relja Nagulic - 16 17.0 4.4 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.4 -84 -5.2 -43.9 34.8 16.7 66.7 -2.38 43.3 37.7
Tyresse Poku Mensah - 8 15.7 4.1 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.0 1.5 4.4 3.9 -63 -7.9 -28.0 40.0 20.0 37.5 -1.69 42.8 42.9
Wyatt Westin - 1 5.3 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 - - - 100.0 100.0 0 - 150.0 150.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG