Mary Baldwin
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 912 (#390) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 790 (#540) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 797 (#693) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -31.4 (#398) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -20.3 (#608) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.021 (#697) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.012 (#554) | NetEff -28.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.002 (#708) | AdjNet -51.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.002 (#704) | AdjNet -52.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.048 (#706) | AdjO 45.5 | AdjD 78.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.159 (#684) | AdjO 51.1 | AdjD 69.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.091 (#668) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.096 (#668) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 685 (#545) | RD 107 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Wilson | L | 61 - 86 |
| 2025-11-10 | @ | Bridgewater (VA) | L | 37 - 74 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | Randolph | L | 58 - 72 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Meredith | W | 56 - 55 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Methodist | L | 41 - 60 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | East. Mennonite | L | 43 - 90 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Christendom | W | 57 - 47 |
| 2025-12-15 | vs | William Peace | L | 65 - 78 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | N.C. Wesleyan | L | 57 - 90 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Hollins | L | 25 - 91 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Pfeiffer | L | 57 - 67 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Southern Va. | L | 41 - 87 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | William Peace | L | 43 - 66 |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Salem (NC) | W | 63 - 41 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Greensboro | L | 66 - 81 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Methodist | L | 56 - 68 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Greensboro | L | 63 - 69 |
| 2026-02-03 | @ | Salem (NC) | L | 59 - 70 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Pfeiffer | L | 63 - 73 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanie Bethel | - | 19 | 29.5 | 13.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 14.9 | 3.9 | -250 | -13.9 | -84.0 | 32.4 | 33.1 | 75.6 | -0.19 | 43.4 | 40.7 |
| DaVyne Johnson | - | 19 | 35.3 | 13.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 15.3 | 1.3 | -292 | -16.2 | -80.8 | 30.0 | 35.8 | 81.1 | -1.95 | 40.5 | 37.6 |
| Malia Bullock | - | 19 | 31.6 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 2.2 | -180 | -10.0 | -46.4 | 23.4 | 21.7 | 60.3 | -0.73 | 32.1 | 25.0 |
| Shyla Williams | - | 17 | 26.0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 7.5 | -171 | -10.7 | -66.0 | 34.4 | 11.1 | 54.1 | -3.24 | 41.1 | 35.4 |
| Carma Bryant | - | 17 | 19.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | -95 | -6.3 | -86.8 | 33.3 | 13.3 | 61.1 | -3.65 | 39.0 | 34.3 |
| Karrington Irvin | - | 2 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 43.6 | 33.3 |
| Taylor Urick | - | 19 | 17.4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | -144 | -8.5 | -51.6 | 22.5 | 15.2 | 33.3 | -1.48 | 27.2 | 26.9 |
| Nevaeh Clark | - | 19 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -12 | -0.7 | -9.2 | 37.8 | 0 | 72.7 | 2.11 | 42.1 | 37.8 |
| Madison Newbauer | - | 13 | 15.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | -116 | -9.7 | -637.1 | 23.5 | 20.0 | 40.0 | -2.08 | 32.0 | 29.4 |
| Reese Brock | - | 14 | 11.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | -115 | -8.8 | -70.2 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 70.8 | -0.58 | 44.2 | 25.0 |
| Aimee Zikiel | - | 19 | 9.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -137 | -7.6 | -91.6 | 38.7 | 0 | 33.3 | -0.08 | 38.6 | 38.7 |
| Amelle Passee | - | 14 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -64 | -4.9 | -200.8 | 28.6 | 0 | 37.5 | -0.87 | 30.6 | 28.6 |
| Sabrina Reeves | - | 3 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NaviyOnce Gregory | - | 1 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG