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Mars Hill

Also known as: Mars Hill
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 943 (#331) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1039 (#197) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 860 (#565) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -0.7 (#239) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +0.7 (#317) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.216 (#478) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +78.6 More → 1.000 (#8) NetEff +78.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -4.0 More → 0.388 (#468) AdjNet -4.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -4.0 More → 0.385 (#472) AdjNet -4.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 80.3 More → 0.425 (#472) AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 80.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.4 | AdjD 73.3 More → 0.458 (#383) AdjO 71.4 | AdjD 73.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.414 (#388) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.411 (#394) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 99 | GP 22 More → 907 (#342) RD 99 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs North Greenville W 75 - 68
2025-11-15 vs Southern Wesleyan W 96 - 87
2025-11-17 vs Clinton W 81 - 76
2025-11-22 vs Belmont Abbey W 84 - 71
2025-11-30 vs King (TN) W 88 - 78
2025-12-03 vs Newberry W 84 - 66
2025-12-06 @ Anderson (SC) L 69 - 88
2025-12-10 @ Lincoln Memorial L 80 - 94
2025-12-13 vs Coker W 86 - 81
2025-12-17 vs Tusculum L 60 - 77
2025-12-20 @ Lenoir-Rhyne L 65 - 115
2025-12-31 @ King (TN) W 75 - 66
2026-01-07 vs UVA Wise L 77 - 81
2026-01-10 @ Wingate W 70 - 64
2026-01-14 @ Emory & Henry L 57 - 68
2026-01-17 vs Catawba L 65 - 67
2026-01-21 vs Carson-Newman L 81 - 87
2026-01-23 @ Newberry L 70 - 89
2026-01-28 @ UVA Wise L 65 - 81
2026-01-30 vs Anderson (SC) L 66 - 75
2026-02-04 vs Emory & Henry L 64 - 66
2026-02-07 @ Coker L 69 - 75

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Keenan Wilkins - 22 29.2 14.5 3.1 2.7 1.4 0.0 2.3 11.2 8.2 -61 -2.8 -14.2 41.1 32.4 76.6 -0.9 55.7 50.4
Jaheim Taylor - 21 19.0 11.8 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.2 1.8 9.0 7.0 -55 -2.8 -32.1 36.2 32.6 82.2 -0.83 53.3 43.9
Ashton Troutman - 21 17.9 8.0 5.7 1.0 0.3 0.4 1.2 5.5 8.7 3 0.1 0.9 53.9 28.6 65.0 0.36 59.1 55.7
Christian Foy - 19 17.4 7.7 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.2 1.4 6.9 4.2 - - - 38.2 38.5 61.8 - 50.0 47.7
Alejandro Ford - 22 25.4 6.7 6.1 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.0 5.5 9.0 -86 -3.9 -23.8 38.5 26.5 78.3 0.89 52.0 45.9
Marvin Hires - 22 18.0 5.7 3.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 4.0 6.3 -35 -1.6 -11.6 47.2 25.0 60.0 0.36 54.2 50.0
Caden Owens - 21 14.7 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.3 -21 -1.0 -9.4 42.4 37.2 81.6 0.27 62.3 54.5
Gabriel Erbeck - 14 15.1 4.7 3.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.1 4.5 2.8 -3 -0.2 -2.8 39.7 37.2 0.0 -0.33 52.0 52.4
Aljaz Vidmar - 20 14.8 4.4 3.8 0.8 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.9 5.2 -16 -0.8 -6.3 63.2 100.0 45.5 2.7 61.5 64.0
Jonathan Brandtner - 20 17.1 4.2 2.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 3.9 3.4 20 1.0 9.7 39.7 26.3 75.0 -0.65 49.4 46.2
Carson Evans - 21 15.3 3.3 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.3 3.3 1.9 21 1.1 7.6 37.1 20.8 57.1 -1.26 43.5 40.7
Jaylen Bates - 13 7.3 2.6 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.1 1.0 2.7 0.9 -40 -3.3 -96.5 37.1 16.7 63.6 -0.76 42.7 38.6
Carby Martin - 17 6.7 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.8 4 0.2 3.3 20.0 16.7 63.2 -0.8 33.4 24.3
Juan Pedro Rodriguez - 2 0.9 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -0.5 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG