Mars Hill
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 943 (#331) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1039 (#197) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 860 (#565) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.7 (#239) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +0.7 (#317) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.216 (#478) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#8) | NetEff +78.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.388 (#468) | AdjNet -4.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.385 (#472) | AdjNet -4.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.425 (#472) | AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 80.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.458 (#383) | AdjO 71.4 | AdjD 73.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.414 (#388) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.411 (#394) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 907 (#342) | RD 99 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | North Greenville | W | 75 - 68 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Southern Wesleyan | W | 96 - 87 |
| 2025-11-17 | vs | Clinton | W | 81 - 76 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Belmont Abbey | W | 84 - 71 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | King (TN) | W | 88 - 78 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Newberry | W | 84 - 66 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Anderson (SC) | L | 69 - 88 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Lincoln Memorial | L | 80 - 94 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Coker | W | 86 - 81 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Tusculum | L | 60 - 77 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Lenoir-Rhyne | L | 65 - 115 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | King (TN) | W | 75 - 66 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | UVA Wise | L | 77 - 81 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Wingate | W | 70 - 64 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Emory & Henry | L | 57 - 68 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Catawba | L | 65 - 67 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Carson-Newman | L | 81 - 87 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Newberry | L | 70 - 89 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | UVA Wise | L | 65 - 81 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Anderson (SC) | L | 66 - 75 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Emory & Henry | L | 64 - 66 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Coker | L | 69 - 75 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Wilkins | - | 22 | 29.2 | 14.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 11.2 | 8.2 | -61 | -2.8 | -14.2 | 41.1 | 32.4 | 76.6 | -0.9 | 55.7 | 50.4 |
| Jaheim Taylor | - | 21 | 19.0 | 11.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 9.0 | 7.0 | -55 | -2.8 | -32.1 | 36.2 | 32.6 | 82.2 | -0.83 | 53.3 | 43.9 |
| Ashton Troutman | - | 21 | 17.9 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 53.9 | 28.6 | 65.0 | 0.36 | 59.1 | 55.7 |
| Christian Foy | - | 19 | 17.4 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 6.9 | 4.2 | - | - | - | 38.2 | 38.5 | 61.8 | - | 50.0 | 47.7 |
| Alejandro Ford | - | 22 | 25.4 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 9.0 | -86 | -3.9 | -23.8 | 38.5 | 26.5 | 78.3 | 0.89 | 52.0 | 45.9 |
| Marvin Hires | - | 22 | 18.0 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 6.3 | -35 | -1.6 | -11.6 | 47.2 | 25.0 | 60.0 | 0.36 | 54.2 | 50.0 |
| Caden Owens | - | 21 | 14.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 | -21 | -1.0 | -9.4 | 42.4 | 37.2 | 81.6 | 0.27 | 62.3 | 54.5 |
| Gabriel Erbeck | - | 14 | 15.1 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 4.5 | 2.8 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 39.7 | 37.2 | 0.0 | -0.33 | 52.0 | 52.4 |
| Aljaz Vidmar | - | 20 | 14.8 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 5.2 | -16 | -0.8 | -6.3 | 63.2 | 100.0 | 45.5 | 2.7 | 61.5 | 64.0 |
| Jonathan Brandtner | - | 20 | 17.1 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 20 | 1.0 | 9.7 | 39.7 | 26.3 | 75.0 | -0.65 | 49.4 | 46.2 |
| Carson Evans | - | 21 | 15.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 21 | 1.1 | 7.6 | 37.1 | 20.8 | 57.1 | -1.26 | 43.5 | 40.7 |
| Jaylen Bates | - | 13 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | -40 | -3.3 | -96.5 | 37.1 | 16.7 | 63.6 | -0.76 | 42.7 | 38.6 |
| Carby Martin | - | 17 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 20.0 | 16.7 | 63.2 | -0.8 | 33.4 | 24.3 |
| Juan Pedro Rodriguez | - | 2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG