Maine Black Bears
2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)
76.3
PPG
69.7
Opp
+6.7
Margin
45.3%
FG%
40.0%
3P%
72.1%
FT%
38.7
RPG
18.0
APG
15.7
TO
71.3
Est. poss./game
67.4
Adj PPG
66.9
Adj Opp PPG
#174
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 965 (#188) | Preseason prior 933 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1051, returning -61, transfers -58, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 965 (#195) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 966 (#197) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.4 (#164) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.4 (#164) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.519 (#151) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.491 (#162) | AdjNet +3.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.480 (#167) | AdjNet +2.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.468 (#174) | AdjO 67.4 | AdjD 66.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.468 (#174) | AdjO 67.4 | AdjD 67.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.476 (#172) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.476 (#172) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 980 (#172) | RD 177 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.440 (#178) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | vs | Siena Saints | W | 70 - 68 |
| 2026-11-08 | @ | Merrimack Warriors | W | 87 - 62 |
| 2026-11-13 | vs | Oregon Ducks | L | 72 - 79 |
| 2026-11-15 | vs | Brown Bears | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-19 | vs | VCU Rams | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maddie Fitzpatrick
|
G | 3 | 36.3 | 17.3 | 11.7 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 12.0 | 18.3 | -11 | 3 | -3.7 | -5.4 | 47.2 | 18.8 | 93.8 | -1.43 | 60.4 | 51.4 |
Lala Woods
|
G | 3 | 35.7 | 15.7 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 37.5 | 41.4 | 62.5 | 4.12 | 54.0 | 52.5 |
Lizzy Gruber
|
C | 3 | 26.3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 10.3 | 9.0 | -4 | 3 | -1.3 | -2.6 | 48.4 | 0.0 | 55.6 | -2.52 | 50.1 | 48.4 |
Olivia Alvarez
|
G | 3 | 29.3 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | -12 | 3 | -4.0 | -7.2 | 47.6 | 40.0 | 100.0 | -1.18 | 59.4 | 57.1 |
Bailey Breen
|
F | 3 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 66.7 | 80.0 | 0 | -0.26 | 80.0 | 80.0 |
Abby Price
|
G | 3 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -8 | 3 | -2.7 | -9.2 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 100.0 | -0.68 | 105.7 | 105.0 |
Kaliyah Sain
|
F | 3 | 26.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 8 | 3 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0.28 | 41.3 | 41.7 |
Izzy Allen
|
G | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -8 | 1 | -8.0 | -87.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -3.22 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Mackenzie Mori
|
G | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -2 | 1 | -2.0 | -46.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.01 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Ayla Corrigale
|
G | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -2 | 1 | -2.0 | -72.7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.12 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Zeina Haleem
|
F | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -4 | 1 | -4.0 | -53.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.72 | 0 | 0 |
Aina Real
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Ava Sewall
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Emmie Streams
|
G | 3 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 6 | 3 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.44 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
181 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Lala WoodsMaddie FitzpatrickLizzy GruberBailey BreenOlivia AlvarezAbby PriceKaliyah Sain
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 10-15 | 66.7 | 20 | Lizzy Gruber 30% (6 pts) | Bailey Breen 20% (4 pts) | Kaliyah Sain 40% (2 misses) | Lizzy Gruber 40% (2 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 34-64 | 53.1 | 68 | Maddie Fitzpatrick 35% (24 pts) | Lizzy Gruber 26% (18 pts) | Lizzy Gruber 30% (9 misses) | Maddie Fitzpatrick 17% (5 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 2-8 | 25.0 | 4 | Lala Woods 50% (2 pts) | Lizzy Gruber 50% (2 pts) | Lala Woods 50% (3 misses) | Bailey Breen 17% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 0-0 | - | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Mid-range right | 2-9 | 22.2 | 4 | Lizzy Gruber 100% (4 pts) | - | Lizzy Gruber 43% (3 misses) | Kaliyah Sain 29% (2 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 4-12 | 33.3 | 12 | Abby Price 50% (6 pts) | Lala Woods 50% (6 pts) | Kaliyah Sain 50% (4 misses) | Abby Price 12% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 2-9 | 22.2 | 6 | Maddie Fitzpatrick 50% (3 pts) | Olivia Alvarez 50% (3 pts) | Maddie Fitzpatrick 71% (5 misses) | Kaliyah Sain 14% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 9-27 | 33.3 | 27 | Lala Woods 44% (12 pts) | Abby Price 22% (6 pts) | Lala Woods 50% (9 misses) | Maddie Fitzpatrick 22% (4 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 7-15 | 46.7 | 21 | Bailey Breen 43% (9 pts) | Lala Woods 29% (6 pts) | Olivia Alvarez 38% (3 misses) | Lala Woods 25% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 12-22 | 54.5 | 36 | Lala Woods 33% (12 pts) | Abby Price 25% (9 pts) | Lala Woods 40% (4 misses) | Maddie Fitzpatrick 20% (2 misses) |