Macalester
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 856 (#452) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 744 (#559) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 812 (#681) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -8.7 (#283) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -12.8 (#527) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.173 (#598) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.064 (#506) | NetEff -18.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.345 (#436) | AdjNet -5.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.341 (#434) | AdjNet -5.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.416 (#428) | AdjO 58.2 | AdjD 62.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.279 (#617) | AdjO 52.7 | AdjD 63.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.173 (#617) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.179 (#624) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 700 (#538) | RD 126 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | St. Catherine | L | 49 - 68 |
| 2025-11-10 | @ | Minn.-Morris | L | 62 - 76 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Buena Vista | L | 51 - 73 |
| 2025-11-17 | @ | Martin Luther | L | 67 - 71 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Northwestern-St. Paul | W | 55 - 51 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Wis.-Superior | L | 43 - 54 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Bethel (MN) | L | 52 - 77 |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | Carleton | L | 47 - 49 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Augsburg | L | 71 - 86 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | St. Scholastica | L | 48 - 62 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Gustavus Adolphus | L | 48 - 63 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Concordia-M'head | L | 64 - 80 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | St. Catherine | L | 52 - 63 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Bethel (MN) | L | 50 - 73 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | St. Olaf | W | 51 - 50 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | St. Scholastica | L | 49 - 70 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Gustavus Adolphus | L | 40 - 56 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydnee Smith | - | 14 | 26.5 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 11.4 | 5.1 | -114 | -6.7 | -32.5 | 39.4 | 23.8 | 69.4 | -1.16 | 45.8 | 42.5 |
| Mary Daley | - | 17 | 33.4 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 8.9 | -185 | -9.2 | -30.8 | 43.5 | 16.7 | 74.0 | 0.67 | 50.3 | 45.2 |
| Faith Accardo | - | 17 | 19.4 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | -100 | -5.3 | -35.0 | 35.2 | 40.7 | 70.0 | -1.05 | 49.9 | 46.3 |
| Cady Davis | - | 17 | 25.3 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 6.7 | 7.7 | -131 | -6.9 | -28.3 | 37.7 | 11.8 | 65.9 | 0.9 | 43.9 | 38.6 |
| Megan Matthews | - | 17 | 28.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 7.8 | 2.6 | -174 | -9.2 | -35.3 | 26.5 | 26.4 | 67.9 | -0.94 | 35.7 | 31.8 |
| Emma Karlin | - | 17 | 17.9 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 5.5 | 0.8 | -86 | -4.3 | -25.7 | 26.9 | 18.8 | 0 | -0.09 | 31.7 | 31.7 |
| Samantha Smith | - | 17 | 19.3 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 4.3 | -0.1 | -23 | -0.6 | -5.8 | 21.9 | 17.0 | 57.1 | -2.38 | 31.6 | 27.4 |
| Kendall Bernbaum | - | 17 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.9 | -0.4 | -88 | -4.4 | -58.3 | 27.3 | 24.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 37.9 | 37.9 |
| Ellie Corbett | - | 17 | 13.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 2.5 | -71 | -3.7 | -34.6 | 29.1 | 13.3 | 68.8 | 0.56 | 36.3 | 30.9 |
| Acacia Edmond | - | 12 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | -0.2 | -64 | -4.6 | -258.6 | 40.0 | 33.3 | 40.0 | -2.33 | 45.1 | 45.0 |
| Brooke Boroughs | - | 16 | 9.7 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -80 | -4.2 | -60.0 | 22.2 | 0 | 100.0 | -3.5 | 26.5 | 22.2 |
| Davianie Somers | - | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Adi Megiddo | - | 2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG