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MSU Moorhead

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: MSU Moorhead
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 950 (#272) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 903 (#293) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +13.1 (#73) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.475 (#370) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +3.8 More → 0.618 (#189) NetEff +3.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +17.9 More → 0.887 (#212) AdjNet +17.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +18.5 More → 0.899 (#212) AdjNet +18.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 57.4 More → 0.743 (#214) AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 57.4

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-08 @ Northwest Mo. St. L 47 - 54
2024-11-09 @ Fort Hays St. L 41 - 65
2024-11-14 vs Central Mo. L 52 - 70
2024-11-21 vs Missouri Western L 57 - 68
2024-11-26 @ Hawaii Pacific W 77 - 63
2024-11-29 @ UCCS W 62 - 55
2024-12-05 vs Northern St. W 73 - 70
2024-12-07 @ Mary W 65 - 43
2024-12-13 @ St. Cloud St. W 63 - 55
2024-12-14 @ Bemidji St. W 64 - 55
2024-12-20 vs Minot St. L 62 - 65
2024-12-21 vs Minn.-Crookston L 63 - 64
2024-12-31 @ Augustana (SD) L 60 - 76
2025-01-03 vs Concordia-St. Paul L 54 - 78
2025-01-04 vs Minn. Duluth L 50 - 74
2025-01-10 @ Southwest Minn. St. L 70 - 93
2025-01-11 @ Sioux Falls L 67 - 87
2025-01-17 @ Minnesota St. L 66 - 94
2025-01-18 @ Winona St. W 69 - 47
2025-01-24 vs Augustana (SD) W 57 - 43
2025-01-25 vs Wayne St. (NE) W 63 - 53
2025-01-30 @ Northern St. L 60 - 69
2025-02-01 vs St. Cloud St. W 78 - 66
2025-02-05 @ Minot St. W 71 - 64
2025-02-08 vs Mary W 67 - 65
2025-02-14 @ Minn. Duluth L 61 - 63
2025-02-15 @ Concordia-St. Paul L 53 - 62
2025-02-21 vs Winona St. L 48 - 58
2025-02-22 vs Minnesota St. W 74 - 69
2025-02-26 vs Wayne St. (NE) W 57 - 50
2025-03-01 @ Southwest Minn. St. L 79 - 87

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Emma Jarovski - 1 34.0 18.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 18.0 8.0 - - - 38.9 36.4 0 -0.19 50.0 50.0
Abby Berge - 30 28.2 11.5 6.1 1.2 0.9 0.0 1.6 8.1 10.1 -18 -0.5 -0.6 46.7 26.7 84.3 0.21 58.3 50.0
Natalie Jens - 29 26.1 11.3 3.1 2.5 0.6 0.0 2.4 11.3 3.8 -38 -1.5 -1.7 32.6 29.7 67.6 0.18 43.7 38.9
Terryn Johnson - 30 29.9 10.8 8.6 1.1 0.8 0.4 1.6 8.3 11.8 61 1.6 1.6 55.0 0.0 56.8 0.52 56.3 55.0
Sidney Thue - 1 17.0 10.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 - - - 83.3 0 0.0 - 77.6 83.3
Kaela Martinez - 1 36.0 10.0 2.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 18.0 -5.0 - - - 16.7 15.4 66.7 -0.1 25.9 22.2
Ashton Safranski - 30 28.3 9.3 4.0 3.4 2.9 0.1 3.2 8.8 7.7 6 0.2 0.2 30.9 24.5 75.2 -0.26 44.7 37.4
Signe Bang - 1 33.0 8.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 9.0 - - - 42.9 0 50.0 -0.23 45.7 42.9
Alexus Motley - 1 23.0 8.0 11.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 8.0 10.0 - - - 37.5 0.0 100.0 - 45.0 37.5
Karlee Fisher - 30 22.5 5.8 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 1.6 6.5 1.3 -19 -0.5 -0.7 27.7 32.0 72.3 -0.51 40.1 35.6
Ashley Fritz - 30 18.8 3.5 3.7 0.9 1.0 0.3 1.3 4.6 3.6 -24 -0.8 -1.0 26.8 21.1 71.4 -0.03 35.3 31.2
Caylin Kelly - 30 11.8 3.3 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 3.6 1.6 28 0.7 1.4 35.2 25.0 76.5 0.14 42.4 39.4
Tori Ratz - 30 10.5 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 2.0 1.1 -20 -0.8 -1.8 33.3 35.2 0 -0.27 49.2 49.2
Kyra Griese - 1 18.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 0.0 - 29.1 33.3
Remedy Morrison - 1 9.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 - - - 0.0 0 100.0 - 34.7 0.0
Maci Nemetz - 1 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Emily Srejma - 29 6.2 1.8 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.7 1.9 -42 -1.1 -5.6 50.0 0.0 28.6 -0.71 49.0 50.0
Adie Wagner - 30 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.4 -27 -0.8 -3.1 34.2 26.5 87.5 -0.42 50.6 46.1
Ayelishka Teko-Folly - 30 4.3 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.6 30 0.8 2.6 40.0 0 30.8 -0.25 39.2 40.0
Deja Davis - 30 5.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.1 5 0.2 1.2 19.0 18.2 66.7 0.39 26.9 23.8
Katelyn Maciej - 30 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 4 0.2 1.6 44.4 0 0 0.27 44.4 44.4
Tresa Baumgard - 29 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 - - - 25.0 0 100.0 - 41.0 25.0
Alyssa Moschell - 1 15.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 - - - 0.0 0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0
Eve Zephier - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kylee Cox - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Claire Tereshinski - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Leah Williams - 1 8.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 -0.39 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG