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MSU Moorhead

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: MSU Moorhead
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 882 (#453) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 994 (#281) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 909 (#607) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → +12.6 (#94) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +9.7 (#216) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.475 (#370) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +7.2 More → 0.710 (#214) NetEff +7.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +17.9 More → 0.887 (#212) AdjNet +17.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +18.5 More → 0.899 (#212) AdjNet +18.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 57.4 More → 0.743 (#214) AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 57.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.8 | AdjD 61.1 More → 0.562 (#223) AdjO 63.8 | AdjD 61.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.654 (#227) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.617 (#253) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 22 More → 929 (#323) RD 93 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Missouri Western - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 @ Emporia St. - Incomplete score
2025-11-18 @ Central Mo. - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 vs Minn.-Crookston - Incomplete score
2025-11-28 vs Alas. Fairbanks - Incomplete score
2025-12-04 @ Bemidji St. - Incomplete score
2025-12-06 vs Minn. Duluth - Incomplete score
2025-12-11 @ Minot St. - Incomplete score
2025-12-13 @ Mary - Incomplete score
2025-12-20 vs Jamestown - Incomplete score
2026-01-03 @ Minn.-Crookston - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 @ Winona St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-16 vs Augustana (SD) - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 vs Wayne St. (NE) - Incomplete score
2026-01-23 @ Southwest Minn. St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Sioux Falls - Incomplete score
2026-01-30 vs St. Cloud St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Minnesota St. - Incomplete score
2026-02-05 @ Jamestown - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 @ Northern St. - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Terryn Johnson - 20 28.1 12.6 7.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.8 8.8 11.2 -59 -2.7 -9.7 55.7 0.0 72.7 -0.06 60.0 55.7
Abby John - 6 20.6 11.3 4.3 1.0 1.7 0.7 1.0 6.0 12.0 -42 -7.0 -25.4 61.1 41.7 82.6 -3.06 73.7 68.1
Ashton Safranski - 20 33.0 11.1 5.5 4.7 2.3 0.1 3.0 9.6 11.2 -26 -1.2 -3.7 38.7 26.4 73.5 4.9 50.0 44.8
Abby Berge - 13 24.6 8.7 5.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.7 7.9 5.2 -51 -3.6 -8.4 35.9 13.6 72.0 0.17 45.2 37.4
Caylin Kelly - 20 27.0 8.7 4.5 1.2 1.1 0.1 1.5 9.2 5.0 -57 -2.6 -12.2 36.6 25.4 68.6 0.48 43.6 40.7
Grace Massaquoi - 20 16.6 7.0 3.9 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 7.0 4.3 -53 -2.4 -14.4 36.7 20.8 81.0 -1.77 44.8 38.5
Aubrey Morrison - 20 20.0 7.0 1.8 1.1 1.1 0.1 1.4 6.5 3.1 -58 -2.6 -14.8 35.9 35.3 81.5 0.06 49.0 45.0
Karlee Fisher - 20 24.1 5.0 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.0 1.5 6.0 1.2 -100 -4.5 -20.4 27.5 17.5 66.7 -2.91 37.2 32.1
Ayelishka Teko-Folly - 20 11.1 2.2 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.8 3 0.1 1.6 51.4 0 37.5 1.64 50.0 51.4
Adie Wagner - 20 9.3 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.6 2.4 0.4 -28 -1.3 -13.5 27.1 23.8 0 -0.49 37.5 37.5
Sydney Dahl - 4 7.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.8 -8 -2.0 -12.6 42.9 0.0 0.0 - 40.3 42.9
Emily Srejma - 20 7.1 1.4 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.9 -45 -2.0 -30.7 34.4 0 54.5 -4.49 38.0 34.4
Katelyn Maciej - 12 2.6 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 -9 -0.8 -64.3 50.0 0 50.0 - 52.1 50.0
Julia MacAdams - 6 2.5 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 2.0 -16 -2.7 -136.7 40.0 0 25.0 - 35.2 40.0
Greta Hillukka - 10 3.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3 -11 -1.1 -53.8 16.7 16.7 0 -1.99 25.0 25.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG