MSU Moorhead
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 964 (#378) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1022 (#247) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 909 (#607) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +14.4 (#50) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +9.7 (#216) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.475 (#370) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.710 (#214) | NetEff +7.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.887 (#212) | AdjNet +17.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.899 (#212) | AdjNet +18.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.743 (#214) | AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 57.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.562 (#223) | AdjO 63.8 | AdjD 61.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.654 (#228) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.617 (#253) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 928 (#327) | RD 93 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Missouri Western | L | 59 - 68 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Emporia St. | W | 60 - 48 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Central Mo. | W | 68 - 66 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Minn.-Crookston | W | 74 - 58 |
| 2025-11-28 | vs | Alas. Fairbanks | W | 112 - 63 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Bemidji St. | L | 53 - 55 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Minn. Duluth | L | 69 - 73 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | Minot St. | L | 68 - 78 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Mary | L | 78 - 84 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Jamestown | W | 76 - 49 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Minn.-Crookston | W | 63 - 48 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Winona St. | L | 80 - 84 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Augustana (SD) | W | 74 - 61 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Wayne St. (NE) | L | 51 - 68 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Southwest Minn. St. | L | 53 - 61 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Sioux Falls | L | 65 - 77 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | St. Cloud St. | W | 78 - 67 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Minnesota St. | L | 64 - 97 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Jamestown | L | 58 - 65 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Northern St. | L | 41 - 61 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terryn Johnson | - | 20 | 28.1 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 11.2 | -59 | -2.7 | -9.7 | 55.7 | 0.0 | 72.7 | -1.16 | 60.0 | 55.7 |
| Abby John | - | 6 | 20.6 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | -42 | -7.0 | -25.4 | 61.1 | 41.7 | 82.6 | -2.74 | 73.7 | 68.1 |
| Ashton Safranski | - | 20 | 33.0 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 9.6 | 11.2 | -26 | -1.2 | -3.7 | 38.7 | 26.4 | 73.5 | 3.56 | 50.0 | 44.8 |
| Caylin Kelly | - | 20 | 27.0 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | -57 | -2.6 | -12.2 | 36.6 | 25.4 | 68.6 | -1.27 | 43.6 | 40.7 |
| Abby Berge | - | 13 | 24.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 7.9 | 5.2 | -51 | -3.6 | -8.4 | 35.9 | 13.6 | 72.0 | -0.08 | 45.2 | 37.4 |
| Grace Massaquoi | - | 20 | 16.6 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 4.3 | -53 | -2.4 | -14.4 | 36.7 | 20.8 | 81.0 | -4.63 | 44.8 | 38.5 |
| Aubrey Morrison | - | 20 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 3.1 | -58 | -2.6 | -14.8 | 35.9 | 35.3 | 81.5 | -1.69 | 49.0 | 45.0 |
| Karlee Fisher | - | 20 | 24.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 1.2 | -100 | -4.5 | -20.4 | 27.5 | 17.5 | 66.7 | -0.33 | 37.2 | 32.1 |
| Ayelishka Teko-Folly | - | 20 | 11.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 51.4 | 0 | 37.5 | 0.51 | 50.0 | 51.4 |
| Adie Wagner | - | 20 | 9.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | -28 | -1.3 | -13.5 | 27.1 | 23.8 | 0 | 2.26 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Sydney Dahl | - | 4 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | -8 | -2.0 | -12.6 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.67 | 40.3 | 42.9 |
| Emily Srejma | - | 20 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | -45 | -2.0 | -30.7 | 34.4 | 0 | 54.5 | -2.01 | 38.0 | 34.4 |
| Julia MacAdams | - | 6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | -16 | -2.7 | -136.7 | 40.0 | 0 | 25.0 | -1.06 | 35.2 | 40.0 |
| Katelyn Maciej | - | 12 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | -9 | -0.8 | -64.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.37 | 52.1 | 50.0 |
| Greta Hillukka | - | 10 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -11 | -1.1 | -53.8 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 0 | -1.78 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG