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MSU Moorhead

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: MSU Moorhead
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 973 (#261) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1065 (#143) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 984 (#385) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +10.0 (#102) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +11.3 (#143) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.653 (#252) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +73.5 More → 0.999 (#39) NetEff +73.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +21.0 More → 0.918 (#109) AdjNet +21.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +21.2 More → 0.922 (#106) AdjNet +21.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 86.1 | AdjD 70.4 More → 0.807 (#115) AdjO 86.1 | AdjD 70.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 82.2 | AdjD 75.7 More → 0.643 (#111) AdjO 82.2 | AdjD 75.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.662 (#180) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.649 (#183) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 95 | GP 24 More → 970 (#247) RD 95 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Washburn L 63 - 95
2025-11-15 @ Pittsburg St. L 74 - 94
2025-11-21 vs Black Hills St. W 100 - 85
2025-11-22 vs South Dakota Mines W 86 - 80
2025-11-25 vs Minn.-Crookston W 95 - 69
2025-11-29 @ Southwest Minn. St. W 78 - 68
2025-11-30 @ Concordia-St. Paul L 108 - 111
2025-12-04 @ Bemidji St. W 90 - 60
2025-12-06 vs Minn. Duluth W 92 - 91
2025-12-11 @ Minot St. W 90 - 79
2025-12-13 @ Mary L 90 - 96
2025-12-18 vs Northern St. L 52 - 76
2025-12-20 vs Jamestown L 83 - 93
2026-01-03 @ Minn.-Crookston W 92 - 81
2026-01-09 @ Concordia-St. Paul L 89 - 102
2026-01-10 @ Winona St. W 83 - 79
2026-01-16 vs Augustana (SD) L 99 - 106
2026-01-17 vs Wayne St. (NE) W 84 - 73
2026-01-23 @ Southwest Minn. St. L 69 - 71
2026-01-24 @ Sioux Falls L 81 - 82
2026-01-30 vs St. Cloud St. L 64 - 77
2026-01-31 vs Minnesota St. L 66 - 82
2026-02-05 @ Jamestown W 76 - 74
2026-02-07 @ Northern St. L 69 - 83

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Isa El-Amin - 24 25.5 14.1 2.4 3.3 1.3 0.0 1.9 12.1 7.2 -12 -0.5 -3.1 43.4 34.4 77.2 -1.23 53.6 50.7
Dominic Gooden - 24 21.3 12.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 1.4 9.3 5.8 -58 -2.5 -22.0 41.1 41.4 79.3 -4.4 57.3 51.3
Sam Hastreiter - 24 26.3 11.0 4.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 1.5 6.9 9.1 -78 -3.4 -18.3 54.2 42.9 83.9 0.01 69.0 65.1
Rodrick Payne - 24 19.2 8.3 4.2 1.1 0.5 0.7 1.8 5.5 7.5 -64 -2.8 -24.9 54.9 14.3 69.3 -4.31 60.2 55.6
Tysen Gerads - 21 19.7 7.1 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.8 5.2 5.0 -63 -3.1 -23.0 51.4 30.8 76.3 1.47 59.3 55.0
Sam Hondl - 24 20.8 5.6 3.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.9 4.2 5.2 -28 -1.2 -9.9 52.0 48.4 71.4 -3.54 61.3 59.5
Timaris Brown - 23 10.7 5.4 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 4.1 3.9 -56 -2.4 -33.6 42.6 31.4 65.9 -0.18 55.1 51.1
Adam Jenkins - 24 16.9 5.1 3.5 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.5 3.1 6.4 -45 -2.0 -17.4 66.7 50.0 55.3 2.01 66.5 67.3
Kabine Kaba - 24 17.0 5.1 4.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.3 3.8 6.4 -12 -0.5 -5.2 45.7 28.2 68.3 0.28 55.9 51.6
Levi Birkholz - 21 12.2 4.7 2.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.8 27 1.3 31.2 54.9 30.8 72.2 -1.22 62.7 60.6
Landin Hacker - 20 9.0 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 2.6 2.1 14 0.7 12.1 38.5 35.1 71.4 1.62 52.7 51.0
Eddie Beeninga - 18 10.3 2.6 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.7 2.4 1.8 -2 -0.1 -0.9 32.6 36.4 77.8 1.28 50.0 46.5
Will Kinsey - 7 2.8 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.9 -1 -0.1 -9.7 40.0 0 50.0 0.45 42.5 40.0
Soren Anderson - 4 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2 0.4 47.5 50.0 0 0 0.13 50.0 50.0
Nic Smith - 1 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 1 1.0 6.4 0 0 0 -0.12 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG