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MSU Denver

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: MSU Denver
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1022 (#211) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 993 (#283) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1019 (#254) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → +3.9 (#184) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +8.1 (#236) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.226 (#477) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -3.7 More → 0.390 (#303) NetEff -3.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -1.9 More → 0.447 (#427) AdjNet -1.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -1.2 More → 0.463 (#424) AdjNet -1.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 65.6 | AdjD 66.1 More → 0.489 (#421) AdjO 65.6 | AdjD 66.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.1 | AdjD 63.4 More → 0.605 (#162) AdjO 68.1 | AdjD 63.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.627 (#251) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.628 (#245) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 101 | GP 23 More → 1016 (#234) RD 101 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ UT Permian Basin - Incomplete score
2025-11-16 @ West Tex. A&M - Incomplete score
2025-11-21 @ Northeastern St. - Incomplete score
2025-11-22 @ Washburn - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 vs Western N.M. - Incomplete score
2025-11-26 vs Fort Hays St. - Incomplete score
2025-12-04 vs Fort Lewis - Incomplete score
2025-12-07 vs Adams St. - Incomplete score
2025-12-09 @ Denver - Incomplete score
2025-12-11 @ Western Colo. - Incomplete score
2025-12-13 @ Westminster (UT) - Incomplete score
2025-12-20 vs Manhattan Chrst. - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 vs Black Hills St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-15 @ Colo. Christian - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 @ UCCS - Incomplete score
2026-01-20 vs Regis (CO) - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Colo. Sch. of Mines - Incomplete score
2026-01-29 @ N.M. Highlands - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 @ Fort Lewis - Incomplete score
2026-02-05 vs Colorado Mesa - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs Western Colo. - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Mikylah Espinosa - 20 28.6 17.1 2.9 3.4 2.1 0.2 4.0 12.9 8.9 60 2.7 11.3 46.3 31.3 81.1 3.08 57.0 51.4
Nevaeh Millard - 20 26.0 13.3 2.5 1.1 1.6 0.2 3.0 11.6 4.3 47 2.1 10.8 39.0 31.2 82.7 2.79 50.6 44.4
Jadyn Watts - 20 23.5 10.1 6.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 1.9 9.0 7.5 -9 -0.4 -2.3 38.3 28.6 74.4 0.37 47.1 40.0
Aaliyah Holmes - 3 20.3 6.7 3.3 1.0 1.3 0.0 2.7 7.7 2.0 -33 -11.0 -38.8 30.4 38.5 100.0 -2.27 42.7 41.3
Maggie Teven - 11 17.7 6.5 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 5.1 4.5 43 3.9 23.7 44.6 100.0 77.8 3.34 53.0 45.5
Brianna Sealy - 20 25.7 6.1 6.1 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.1 4.2 9.6 0 0.0 0.0 48.8 66.7 73.1 0.1 57.1 50.0
Madison Johnson - 20 29.7 5.3 3.5 3.0 1.7 0.1 2.4 5.5 5.7 36 1.0 7.3 33.3 32.2 82.4 0.02 45.2 41.9
Brooklynn Jones - 20 13.8 5.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.7 4.8 2.5 28 1.3 9.4 37.1 35.9 100.0 0.13 50.4 49.0
Sarah Nocke - 18 15.1 3.6 2.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.3 39 1.9 20.2 41.0 37.5 100.0 0.72 50.6 48.4
Keira Mitchell - 9 27.9 3.6 7.1 0.8 0.9 3.0 0.8 2.4 12.1 -31 -3.1 -9.3 63.6 0 57.1 -0.86 63.8 63.6
Lex Trujillo - 17 7.5 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.4 12 0.6 13.8 54.2 52.4 83.3 -2.1 78.8 77.1
Noa Gloria Bravo Hernandez - 4 9.0 2.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.2 41 6.8 139.4 50.0 0.0 0 2.02 50.0 50.0
Gianna Whiteside - 1 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 12 6.0 120.0 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Bri Bowden - 20 6.3 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.0 -5 -0.2 -4.7 38.2 0 77.8 -2.5 43.5 38.2

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG