MSU Denver
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 873 (#468) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 913 (#419) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1019 (#254) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.8 (#164) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +8.1 (#236) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.226 (#477) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.390 (#303) | NetEff -3.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.447 (#427) | AdjNet -1.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.463 (#424) | AdjNet -1.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.489 (#421) | AdjO 65.6 | AdjD 66.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.605 (#162) | AdjO 68.1 | AdjD 63.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.627 (#251) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.627 (#246) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1034 (#215) | RD 100 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | UT Permian Basin | L | 53 - 66 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | West Tex. A&M | L | 69 - 101 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Northeastern St. | L | 68 - 78 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Washburn | L | 44 - 66 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Western N.M. | W | 91 - 74 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | Fort Hays St. | L | 73 - 88 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Fort Lewis | W | 95 - 81 |
| 2025-12-07 | vs | Adams St. | L | 67 - 77 |
| 2025-12-09 | @ | Denver | L | 68 - 92 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | Western Colo. | L | 68 - 71 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Westminster (UT) | W | 76 - 66 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Manhattan Chrst. | W | 121 - 49 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Black Hills St. | L | 68 - 81 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Colo. Christian | W | 65 - 60 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | UCCS | L | 55 - 72 |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Regis (CO) | W | 83 - 73 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Colo. Sch. of Mines | W | 72 - 59 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | N.M. Highlands | W | 62 - 58 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Fort Lewis | W | 76 - 66 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Colorado Mesa | L | 48 - 78 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Western Colo. | W | 62 - 55 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikylah Espinosa | - | 21 | 28.6 | 17.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 60 | 2.7 | 11.3 | 46.4 | 31.5 | 81.2 | 0.86 | 57.2 | 51.5 |
| Nevaeh Millard | - | 20 | 26.0 | 13.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 47 | 2.1 | 10.8 | 39.0 | 31.2 | 82.7 | 2.14 | 50.6 | 44.4 |
| Jadyn Watts | - | 21 | 23.5 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 7.8 | -9 | -0.4 | -2.3 | 38.0 | 29.2 | 75.3 | 0.61 | 47.5 | 39.8 |
| Aaliyah Holmes | - | 3 | 20.3 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 7.7 | 2.0 | -33 | -11.0 | -38.8 | 30.4 | 38.5 | 100.0 | -0.67 | 42.7 | 41.3 |
| Maggie Teven | - | 12 | 17.9 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 43 | 3.9 | 23.7 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 79.3 | -0.89 | 50.8 | 43.0 |
| Brianna Sealy | - | 21 | 25.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.2 | 50.0 | 70.9 | -0.47 | 55.2 | 48.3 |
| Madison Johnson | - | 21 | 29.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 36 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 32.8 | 31.1 | 82.4 | 1.18 | 44.1 | 40.9 |
| Brooklynn Jones | - | 21 | 13.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 28 | 1.3 | 9.4 | 37.4 | 35.9 | 100.0 | -1.03 | 50.4 | 49.0 |
| Sarah Nocke | - | 19 | 16.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 39 | 1.9 | 20.2 | 43.7 | 42.9 | 85.7 | 2.63 | 54.0 | 52.1 |
| Keira Mitchell | - | 9 | 27.9 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 12.1 | -31 | -3.1 | -9.3 | 63.6 | 0 | 57.1 | 1.57 | 63.8 | 63.6 |
| Lex Trujillo | - | 18 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 12 | 0.6 | 13.8 | 55.6 | 54.2 | 83.3 | 0.89 | 81.0 | 79.6 |
| Noa Gloria Bravo Hernandez | - | 5 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 41 | 6.8 | 139.4 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.37 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Gianna Whiteside | - | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 12 | 6.0 | 120.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.63 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Bri Bowden | - | 21 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | -5 | -0.2 | -4.7 | 38.2 | 0 | 72.7 | 0.24 | 43.8 | 38.2 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG