MIT
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1259 (#19) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1287 (#16) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1165 (#14) | HCA +58 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +13.5 (#43) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +13.8 (#36) | HCA +2.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.835 (#17) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.905 (#16) | AdjNet +19.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.907 (#16) | AdjNet +19.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.775 (#22) | AdjO 74.3 | AdjD 60.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.713 (#22) | AdjO 73.8 | AdjD 63.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.829 (#15) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.820 (#16) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1315 (#13) | RD 114 | GP 27 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2016-2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-15 | @ | Bridgewater St. | W | 69 - 57 |
| 2016-11-19 | @ | Eastern Nazarene | L | 79 - 82 |
| 2016-11-22 | vs | Tufts | L | 66 - 74 |
| 2016-11-26 | vs | Sarah Lawrence | W | 73 - 67 |
| 2016-11-29 | vs | UMass Boston | W | 84 - 61 |
| 2016-12-01 | @ | Salem St. | W | 73 - 70 |
| 2016-12-05 | vs | Lasell | W | 57 - 45 |
| 2016-12-06 | vs | Emmanuel (MA) | W | 89 - 50 |
| 2016-12-08 | @ | Rhode Island Col. | W | 74 - 46 |
| 2016-12-13 | @ | UMass Dartmouth | L | 70 - 72 |
| 2017-01-04 | @ | Clark (MA) | W | 76 - 51 |
| 2017-01-07 | vs | WPI | W | 75 - 63 |
| 2017-01-09 | vs | Fitchburg St. | W | 84 - 59 |
| 2017-01-11 | @ | Coast Guard | W | 77 - 60 |
| 2017-01-14 | vs | Springfield | W | 79 - 58 |
| 2017-01-18 | vs | Babson | L | 65 - 71 |
| 2017-01-21 | @ | Emerson | W | 76 - 67 |
| 2017-01-25 | @ | Wheaton (MA) | W | 80 - 55 |
| 2017-01-28 | vs | Clark (MA) | L | 69 - 74 |
| 2017-02-01 | @ | Springfield | W | 73 - 62 |
| 2017-02-04 | vs | Coast Guard | W | 73 - 63 |
| 2017-02-08 | @ | WPI | W | 68 - 66 |
| 2017-02-11 | vs | Wheaton (MA) | W | 75 - 67 |
| 2017-02-15 | vs | Emerson | W | 74 - 70 |
| 2017-02-18 | @ | Babson | L | 67 - 70 |
| 2017-02-25 | @ | WPI | W | 63 - 61 |
| 2017-02-26 | @ | Babson | W | 67 - 62 |
| 2017-03-03 | @ | Eastern Conn. St. | L | 70 - 86 |
2016-2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.