Lynchburg
Model Outputs
2024-2025
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 915 (#385) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 943 (#319) | - |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -5.0 (#236) | HCA +2.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.591 (#410) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.487 (#243) | NetEff -0.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.455 (#397) | AdjNet -1.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.443 (#394) | AdjNet -1.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.453 (#399) | AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 65.3 |
2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | vs | Southern Va. | L | 44 - 76 |
| 2024-11-12 | @ | Marymount (VA) | L | 57 - 67 |
| 2024-11-16 | @ | William Peace | L | 57 - 58 |
| 2024-11-20 | @ | Wilson | W | 70 - 38 |
| 2024-11-23 | vs | Wash. & Lee | L | 47 - 66 |
| 2024-12-01 | vs | N.C. Wesleyan | W | 71 - 46 |
| 2024-12-04 | @ | Hollins | W | 61 - 54 |
| 2024-12-07 | vs | East. Mennonite | W | 60 - 49 |
| 2024-12-19 | @ | Franklin & Marshall | L | 56 - 67 |
| 2024-12-20 | vs | Webster | W | 68 - 55 |
| 2025-01-08 | @ | Ferrum | L | 42 - 61 |
| 2025-01-12 | @ | Va. Wesleyan | W | 65 - 56 |
| 2025-01-15 | vs | Randolph-Macon | L | 46 - 60 |
| 2025-01-18 | @ | Shenandoah | L | 48 - 50 |
| 2025-01-22 | @ | Randolph | L | 59 - 62 |
| 2025-01-25 | vs | Bridgewater (VA) | L | 37 - 67 |
| 2025-01-29 | vs | Roanoke | L | 61 - 73 |
| 2025-02-01 | @ | Guilford | L | 52 - 82 |
| 2025-02-05 | vs | Averett | W | 73 - 45 |
| 2025-02-08 | @ | Wash. & Lee | L | 57 - 91 |
| 2025-02-13 | vs | Va. Wesleyan | W | 72 - 49 |
| 2025-02-15 | @ | East. Mennonite | L | 51 - 62 |
| 2025-02-18 | vs | Randolph | W | 76 - 57 |
| 2025-02-22 | vs | Mary Washington | W | 58 - 52 |
2025 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Harris | - | 24 | 28.8 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 11.5 | 7.3 | -68 | -3.0 | -3.2 | 40.2 | 29.7 | 77.4 | -0.18 | 49.5 | 45.7 |
| Kate Littlejohn | - | 24 | 30.5 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | -69 | -3.0 | -2.6 | 39.8 | 35.9 | 77.3 | -1.16 | 53.3 | 48.6 |
| Bree Spainhour | - | 24 | 25.5 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 8.3 | 8.2 | -63 | -2.1 | -2.3 | 44.2 | 0.0 | 65.1 | 0.0 | 49.0 | 44.2 |
| Audra Petty | - | 24 | 24.4 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 4.8 | -133 | -4.0 | -5.1 | 39.7 | 37.3 | 66.7 | 0.14 | 51.4 | 50.5 |
| Brooke Cason | - | 23 | 31.4 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 7.4 | 4.7 | -165 | -5.2 | -5.6 | 25.1 | 24.8 | 66.7 | -0.18 | 35.4 | 34.8 |
| Kacey Kelly | - | 23 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | -42 | -2.2 | -4.3 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 51.2 | -0.21 | 39.1 | 33.3 |
| Ashley Vandergrift | - | 24 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1 | -0.0 | -0.2 | 34.4 | 33.3 | 57.1 | 0.01 | 47.6 | 46.7 |
| Macey Mullins | - | 24 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | -16 | -0.8 | -1.7 | 22.6 | 19.0 | 80.0 | -0.16 | 34.8 | 30.2 |
| Taylor Brown | - | 22 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | -46 | -0.7 | -1.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.01 | 34.4 | 33.3 |
| Darcy Ross | - | 23 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | -8 | -0.7 | -2.8 | 36.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 | -0.02 | 35.7 | 38.0 |
| Lettie Michael | - | 23 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | -97 | -3.5 | -6.3 | 32.1 | 20.0 | 0 | -0.93 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Selah Parker | - | 23 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -24 | -1.4 | -2.1 | 26.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.47 | 32.4 | 26.7 |
| Kayla Sledge | - | 24 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 38.5 | 0 | 33.3 | 0.39 | 38.4 | 38.5 |
| Kayla Terry | - | 23 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -2 | -0.2 | -1.1 | 22.2 | 16.7 | 100.0 | -0.24 | 41.8 | 27.8 |
| Allyson Booth | - | 23 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 36 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0 | 0.48 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| McKenzie Brundage | - | 23 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG