🐻⬇️🏀

Lock Haven

Also known as: Lock Haven
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1131 (#72) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1093 (#99) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1177 (#27) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +7.4 (#101) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +10.3 (#208) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.853 (#211) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +14.1 More → 0.874 (#151) NetEff +14.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +13.4 More → 0.823 (#263) AdjNet +13.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +13.5 More → 0.832 (#260) AdjNet +13.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 67.7 | AdjD 59.2 More → 0.684 (#265) AdjO 67.7 | AdjD 59.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 56.6 More → 0.697 (#88) AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 56.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.764 (#128) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.773 (#113) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 22 More → 1215 (#38) RD 97 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Fairmont St. L 70 - 77
2025-11-15 @ Concord L 68 - 77
2025-11-19 vs Davis & Elkins W 88 - 48
2025-11-22 vs Frostburg St. W 86 - 59
2025-12-06 vs Edinboro L 62 - 70
2025-12-17 @ Seton Hill L 85 - 98
2025-12-20 vs California (PA) W 77 - 60
2025-12-21 vs Slippery Rock W 68 - 59
2025-12-30 vs Penn St.-Altoona W 56 - 51
2026-01-03 @ Gannon L 51 - 74
2026-01-10 @ Kutztown W 60 - 46
2026-01-13 vs Mansfield W 91 - 41
2026-01-17 vs Millersville W 79 - 48
2026-01-21 @ East Stroudsburg W 76 - 47
2026-01-24 vs West Chester W 73 - 50
2026-01-29 @ Shippensburg W 81 - 50
2026-01-31 vs Shepherd W 59 - 58
2026-02-02 vs Bloomsburg W 70 - 56
2026-02-04 @ Mansfield W 75 - 55
2026-02-07 vs Kutztown W 65 - 54

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Alana Robinson - 20 31.2 15.5 6.3 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.6 12.6 13.8 221 10.0 39.2 47.6 0.0 73.7 4.77 52.8 47.6
Madeline Evans - 20 32.1 14.7 12.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 2.9 7.3 19.9 231 10.5 33.4 51.7 45.5 82.9 4.86 66.8 53.4
Jenadia Jordan - 20 30.8 12.1 5.6 5.8 2.4 0.9 3.9 9.8 13.2 191 8.7 29.8 41.8 28.3 64.3 1.28 50.6 45.7
Rhlyn Rouse - 20 26.8 11.8 8.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 2.1 10.6 8.8 84 3.8 14.6 42.0 23.1 68.4 -2.1 47.6 42.7
Nufi Nemale-Djiegoue - 18 20.2 6.1 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 1.8 6.0 2.1 85 4.2 17.7 31.5 34.2 70.0 1.19 46.7 44.0
Sydney Lear - 20 15.5 3.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 1.1 3.5 1.8 101 4.6 27.4 28.6 23.3 85.7 0.46 43.1 33.6
Erin Miller - 4 4.6 3.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 2.8 3.5 -43 -6.1 -2517.1 54.5 0 100.0 0.44 58.9 54.5
Julia Whesper - 20 19.5 3.1 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 1.2 2.4 4.5 24 1.1 5.6 35.4 32.4 60.0 -1.46 51.5 46.9
Lacey Kriebel - 20 13.2 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.5 0.8 53 2.4 24.3 28.6 29.5 75.0 0.07 42.5 41.4
Mariah Shue - 4 6.6 2.5 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.0 1.2 13 2.6 84.8 25.0 25.0 50.0 -1.43 38.8 37.5
Bella Soto - 7 13.8 1.9 0.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 2.3 0.3 44 5.5 141.6 25.0 40.0 100.0 -0.56 37.5 31.2
Kiahna Jones - 10 3.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 16 1.5 112.3 57.1 0 50.0 1.02 57.1 57.1
Ahmirie Hopson - 13 3.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 26 1.9 135.9 25.0 0.0 50.0 1.88 27.2 25.0
Rain Collins - 7 4.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 10 1.4 96.8 0.0 0.0 75.0 0.74 26.0 0.0
Summer Tillett - 1 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG