🐻⬇️🏀

Lesley

Also known as: Lesley
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 886 (#423) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 653 (#593) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 766 (#707) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -49.3 (#425) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -47.6 (#712) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.018 (#701) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -30.7 More → 0.007 (#560) NetEff -30.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -71.2 More → 0.000 (#743) AdjNet -71.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -75.1 More → 0.000 (#743) AdjNet -75.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 40.1 | AdjD 84.3 More → 0.018 (#742) AdjO 40.1 | AdjD 84.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 38.7 | AdjD 68.7 More → 0.061 (#714) AdjO 38.7 | AdjD 68.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.013 (#723) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.016 (#722) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 125 | GP 21 More → 612 (#566) RD 125 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ New England Col. L 33 - 75
2025-11-09 @ Colby-Sawyer L 44 - 81
2025-11-12 @ Mitchell L 58 - 71
2025-11-15 vs Wentworth W 51 - 49
2025-11-18 @ VTSU-Johnson L 49 - 69
2025-11-21 vs Me.-Presque Isle W 61 - 52
2025-11-22 vs Husson L 59 - 87
2025-11-25 @ Mount Holyoke L 43 - 45
2025-12-02 @ VTSU Lyndon L 40 - 73
2026-01-10 @ SUNY Cobleskill L 28 - 76
2026-01-11 @ SUNY Delhi L 41 - 53
2026-01-16 @ Me.-Presque Isle L 34 - 50
2026-01-17 @ Husson L 49 - 69
2026-01-24 vs VTSU Lyndon L 46 - 67
2026-01-30 @ Me.-Farmington L 37 - 66
2026-01-31 @ Maine Maritime L 24 - 83
2026-02-03 vs VTSU Randolph L 0 - 0
2026-02-03 vs Fisher W 77 - 23
2026-02-07 @ Thomas (ME) L 36 - 71

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Leila Chisholm - 18 36.3 11.1 4.7 2.1 2.8 0.3 2.2 11.2 7.7 -153 -11.8 -58.1 35.3 28.6 79.6 -3.12 44.7 39.8
Mirandah Bunch - 3 23.1 10.3 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 6.0 10.0 0.0 - - - 40.0 36.8 0.0 - 50.9 51.7
Abbie Price - 6 26.8 9.8 5.2 0.5 2.0 0.5 4.3 11.5 2.2 34 1.7 8.4 27.5 16.7 64.0 0.41 36.9 31.2
Alawnah Dunda - 16 31.8 9.7 9.4 0.5 1.3 0.2 2.6 11.4 7.1 -124 -10.3 -47.5 33.3 0.0 54.1 -3.53 36.9 33.3
Savannah Gravitt - 12 28.7 9.5 4.4 0.8 1.5 0.1 2.8 13.4 0.1 -14 -2.0 -13.0 23.6 22.5 57.1 -1.27 32.3 29.2
Madalynn Biagi - 18 37.2 6.9 6.3 3.5 2.5 0.6 4.3 9.3 6.2 -138 -10.6 -52.6 28.1 20.5 60.5 -3.39 34.0 30.5
Charlotte Meixsell - 12 20.7 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.8 6.1 -1.1 -54 -5.4 -45.8 24.7 16.7 60.0 0.22 28.6 27.4
Shayla King - 18 24.9 3.5 3.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 2.2 6.6 -1.1 -175 -13.5 -85.0 19.3 13.9 66.7 -4.18 24.8 21.4
Mirandah Buch - 3 18.3 2.3 1.3 1.7 1.7 0.3 3.0 8.7 -4.3 - - - 7.7 6.7 100.0 - 13.0 9.6
Mariana Richwine - 6 24.1 2.2 5.5 0.8 1.5 0.0 2.2 7.0 0.8 - - - 9.5 15.4 27.3 - 13.9 11.9
Chelsea McIntosh - 3 22.9 0.3 8.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.7 1.0 6.3 - - - 0.0 0.0 25.0 - 10.5 0.0
Baileigh Sinaman-Daniel - 12 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -99 -9.9 -69.6 0.0 0.0 0 -3.25 0.0 0.0
Baileigh Sinaman-Dan - 2 22.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 -3.0 -24 -8.0 -49.5 0.0 0.0 0 0.64 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG