Lancaster Bible
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1076 (#96) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 835 (#514) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 906 (#605) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -23.4 (#374) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -22.6 (#629) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.222 (#569) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.223 (#440) | NetEff -8.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.018 (#646) | AdjNet -34.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.014 (#649) | AdjNet -36.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.124 (#641) | AdjO 51.8 | AdjD 73.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.247 (#637) | AdjO 50.8 | AdjD 63.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.147 (#637) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.155 (#636) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 846 (#458) | RD 102 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Eastern | L | 46 - 69 |
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Muhlenberg | L | 32 - 71 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Goucher | L | 40 - 48 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Lehman | L | 64 - 72 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Centenary (NJ) | L | 70 - 73 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Franklin & Marshall | L | 43 - 61 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Ursinus | L | 38 - 67 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Goucher | W | 49 - 42 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | Saint Elizabeth | W | 63 - 48 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Cedar Crest | W | 67 - 57 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | East. Mennonite | L | 54 - 61 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Lebanon Valley | L | 25 - 75 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Delaware Valley | L | 54 - 57 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Keystone | W | 66 - 45 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Gallaudet | L | 50 - 63 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | St. Mary's (MD) | L | 48 - 77 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Penn College | L | 44 - 63 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Valley Forge | W | 63 - 25 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Penn St.-Abington | L | 55 - 64 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Wilson | L | 67 - 76 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Schirg | - | 1 | 36.0 | 27.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 | 27.0 | -137 | -9.1 | -125.9 | 76.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -2.95 | 77.4 | 76.5 |
| Kayla DeBrow | - | 1 | 29.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 | 16.0 | 12 | 0.7 | 10.5 | 35.3 | 0 | 75.0 | -2.6 | 40.0 | 35.3 |
| Sophia Wascher | - | 1 | 34.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | -79 | -6.1 | -68.2 | 41.7 | 0 | 50.0 | 1.2 | 43.6 | 41.7 |
| Emily Wilson | - | 19 | 33.9 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 16 | 0.9 | 7.4 | 33.1 | 25.5 | 66.7 | 1.72 | 41.1 | 38.2 |
| Rachel Nolt | - | 19 | 32.3 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 12.7 | 5.6 | - | - | - | 31.0 | 29.4 | 70.2 | - | 37.7 | 34.1 |
| Raven Hunter | - | 16 | 26.6 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 9.2 | 7.9 | - | - | - | 42.6 | 0.0 | 44.7 | - | 43.6 | 42.6 |
| Isabella Eufemia | - | 19 | 32.4 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 7.8 | 5.4 | - | - | - | 28.2 | 28.8 | 68.8 | - | 41.6 | 33.2 |
| Shania Stoltzfus | - | 19 | 34.2 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 8.0 | 4.2 | - | - | - | 33.6 | 27.8 | 67.7 | - | 43.8 | 40.8 |
| Sunita Schmidjorg | - | 1 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | -58 | -8.3 | -49.9 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -0.13 | 35.9 | 25.0 |
| Emma Christner | - | 19 | 19.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 32.9 | 42.9 | 53.8 | - | 37.0 | 35.0 |
| Nikki Diehl | - | 11 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.5 | -0.1 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 25.0 | 41.7 | - | 34.6 | 32.1 |
| Seanna Baird | - | 1 | 37.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | -197 | -14.1 | -148.1 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.45 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| Miriam Spender | - | 19 | 19.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - | - | - | 36.7 | 0 | 57.7 | - | 44.6 | 36.7 |
| Annie Hoffman | - | 8 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | -0.4 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Evangeline Diaz | - | 1 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | -70 | -3.9 | -98.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.94 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kate Aquino Uribe | - | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -107 | -9.7 | -125.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -3.48 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG