Lake Forest
Model Outputs
2024-2025
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1122 (#38) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1117 (#73) | - |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -5.2 (#199) | HCA +2.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.513 (#456) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.481 (#305) | NetEff -0.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.277 (#474) | AdjNet -8.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.306 (#446) | AdjNet -7.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.386 (#446) | AdjO 78.8 | AdjD 83.9 |
2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | vs | MSOE | L | 86 - 97 |
| 2024-11-12 | vs | Wheaton (IL) | L | 64 - 68 |
| 2024-11-15 | @ | Emmanuel (MA) | W | 79 - 66 |
| 2024-11-16 | @ | Endicott | L | 73 - 87 |
| 2024-11-20 | @ | UChicago | W | 70 - 68 |
| 2024-11-26 | vs | Dayspring Bible | W | 107 - 68 |
| 2024-12-03 | @ | Monmouth (IL) | L | 46 - 79 |
| 2024-12-07 | @ | Cornell College | L | 77 - 79 |
| 2024-12-15 | @ | Kalamazoo | L | 72 - 74 |
| 2024-12-29 | @ | St. Norbert | L | 60 - 95 |
| 2024-12-30 | vs | Bethany Lutheran | L | 95 - 101 |
| 2025-01-04 | vs | Grinnell | W | 127 - 116 |
| 2025-01-08 | @ | Knox | W | 75 - 66 |
| 2025-01-11 | vs | Cornell College | W | 95 - 72 |
| 2025-01-14 | @ | Ripon | L | 58 - 74 |
| 2025-01-18 | @ | Illinois Col. | L | 75 - 81 |
| 2025-01-22 | vs | Beloit | W | 83 - 63 |
| 2025-01-25 | vs | Knox | W | 86 - 79 |
| 2025-01-28 | vs | Monmouth (IL) | L | 86 - 95 |
| 2025-02-01 | @ | Lawrence | W | 80 - 75 |
| 2025-02-08 | @ | Grinnell | L | 130 - 137 |
| 2025-02-12 | vs | Lawrence | W | 70 - 63 |
| 2025-02-15 | vs | Illinois Col. | W | 78 - 76 |
| 2025-02-19 | vs | Ripon | W | 64 - 57 |
| 2025-02-22 | @ | Beloit | W | 82 - 77 |
| 2025-02-28 | @ | Monmouth (IL) | W | 81 - 79 |
| 2025-03-01 | @ | Grinnell | L | 0 - 82 |
2025 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Knight | - | 27 | 33.5 | 20.2 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 16.9 | 11.0 | -71 | -5.1 | -8.2 | 49.6 | 26.7 | 50.0 | 0.41 | 52.6 | 52.1 |
| Alex Forowycz | - | 27 | 26.3 | 15.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 29 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 46.1 | 40.6 | 91.5 | 0.47 | 60.9 | 57.3 |
| Cristian Rodriguez | - | 22 | 16.9 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 59.3 | 40.0 | 63.5 | 0.58 | 62.3 | 60.0 |
| Coltrane Marchand | - | 27 | 25.3 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 43.9 | 38.8 | 69.8 | 0.25 | 57.5 | 55.4 |
| Elijah Bull | - | 27 | 32.9 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | -63 | -4.8 | -7.4 | 45.0 | 25.0 | 63.5 | -0.0 | 52.8 | 49.7 |
| Luke Arington | - | 27 | 14.9 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | -17 | -2.1 | -9.8 | 34.7 | 35.1 | 75.8 | 0.24 | 53.5 | 50.3 |
| Michael Michaud | - | 20 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 5.5 | -18 | -2.6 | -6.1 | 65.7 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.25 | 65.0 | 65.7 |
| Alex Brown | - | 27 | 16.4 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 4.1 | -45 | -4.1 | -9.4 | 43.9 | 29.4 | 76.7 | 0.41 | 52.5 | 47.0 |
| John Mayhew | - | 26 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | -17 | -1.2 | -102.8 | 64.4 | 28.6 | 66.7 | -0.75 | 66.3 | 66.1 |
| Ben Bochicchio | - | 26 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | -1 | -0.2 | -5.0 | 43.5 | 38.1 | 80.0 | -0.65 | 63.5 | 60.9 |
| Marko Visnjevac | - | 27 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 25 | 1.7 | 79.2 | 38.1 | 22.2 | 42.9 | -0.52 | 43.6 | 42.9 |
| Matthew Amarante | - | 25 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 25.0 | 60.0 | - | 58.8 | 56.2 |
| Nikolas Popovic | - | 27 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -2 | -0.2 | -43.2 | 71.4 | 50.0 | 50.0 | -1.24 | 74.2 | 78.6 |
| Matthew DeFalco | - | 27 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 25.0 | 0 | - | 58.3 | 58.3 |
| Miles Burton | - | 26 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 31.5 | 0.0 |
| Jude Love | - | 26 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 31.5 | 0.0 |
| Sagith Vargas | - | 21 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 29.1 | 33.3 |
| Noe Vargas Rubio | - | 25 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 14.3 | 14.3 | 0.0 | - | 19.0 | 21.4 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG