🐻⬇️🏀

Lake Erie

Also known as: Lake Erie
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 936 (#289) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 888 (#308) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -8.5 (#274) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.024 (#601) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -12.1 More → 0.170 (#318) NetEff -12.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -22.5 More → 0.069 (#611) AdjNet -22.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.0 More → 0.067 (#612) AdjNet -22.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 57.5 | AdjD 71.0 More → 0.226 (#605) AdjO 57.5 | AdjD 71.0

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-08 @ Youngstown St. L 39 - 95
2024-11-19 vs Clarion L 73 - 90
2024-11-21 vs D'Youville L 60 - 61
2024-11-23 @ Roberts Wesleyan W 81 - 79
2024-12-05 @ Thomas More L 47 - 67
2024-12-14 vs Malone L 56 - 72
2024-12-16 vs Ashland L 40 - 70
2024-12-19 vs Salem (WV) W 79 - 63
2025-01-02 @ Northwood L 74 - 98
2025-01-04 @ Hillsdale L 46 - 75
2025-01-09 vs Ky. Wesleyan L 55 - 85
2025-01-11 @ Slippery Rock L 57 - 60
2025-01-16 vs Thomas More L 48 - 56
2025-01-18 vs Ohio Dominican L 62 - 80
2025-01-23 vs Ursuline L 54 - 90
2025-01-25 @ Ashland L 43 - 65
2025-01-30 @ Malone L 39 - 82
2025-02-04 @ Ohio Dominican L 52 - 69
2025-02-06 vs Cedarville L 52 - 58
2025-02-13 @ Cedarville L 61 - 81
2025-02-15 @ Ursuline L 55 - 59
2025-02-20 @ Walsh L 64 - 86
2025-02-22 vs Tiffin W 72 - 59
2025-02-24 @ Ky. Wesleyan L 57 - 88
2025-02-27 vs Northwood L 58 - 72
2025-03-01 vs Findlay L 64 - 83

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lilee Carlson - 26 29.8 11.7 3.5 1.9 1.8 0.5 2.5 9.5 7.5 -42 -1.7 -1.8 45.5 21.2 63.6 -0.41 51.8 47.8
Gracie Lyon - 20 23.9 11.7 5.0 0.7 1.1 0.3 2.3 11.4 5.2 63 2.1 2.7 40.4 29.6 63.6 0.4 45.5 42.1
Kennadi Harris - 26 23.7 7.9 3.2 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.2 9.8 0.9 -26 -1.0 -1.3 25.8 19.0 82.3 -0.05 36.2 30.1
Anna Ibos - 26 24.7 7.2 3.3 0.9 1.0 0.1 1.5 6.7 4.3 -53 -2.1 -2.6 35.3 25.0 79.7 -0.23 46.7 40.2
Nina Shaffer - 26 27.3 6.0 1.8 2.2 1.5 0.1 2.2 5.7 3.7 -42 -1.4 -1.5 38.5 29.0 65.6 -0.78 47.8 45.3
Riley Montagner - 25 9.8 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 3.7 1.5 -47 -1.4 -4.5 34.8 34.5 82.4 -0.57 48.8 45.1
Kylie Maxwell - 26 19.2 3.7 4.2 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.0 -31 -0.8 -1.3 38.5 20.0 55.9 -0.61 43.3 40.1
Megan Mares - 25 10.9 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 2.6 2.5 8 0.2 0.5 35.4 20.0 46.2 0.54 38.2 36.9
Emma Fouch - 26 10.6 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.9 7 0.2 0.4 30.0 32.4 60.0 -0.26 43.2 41.0
Katie Grexa - 26 7.8 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.2 -46 -2.0 -7.1 43.9 25.0 66.7 -0.6 50.4 48.8
Caitlin Titler - 25 7.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.0 -27 -1.4 -4.3 26.4 19.0 53.3 -0.36 33.6 30.2
Noel Weathers - 5 3.4 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 1.8 1.0 - - - 44.4 0.0 0 0.28 44.4 44.4
Micheala Dean-dunn - 2 8.5 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 -0.5 -21 -0.7 -2.4 33.3 0.0 0 -0.38 33.3 33.3
Lakelyn Joslin - 8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 - - - 50.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Sophie Chipps - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32 2.7 5.3 0 0 0 0.21 0 0
Jaicee Wallace - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.3 0.8 0 0 0 0.47 0 0
Aislyn Hurst - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG