Lake Erie
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 867 (#473) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 815 (#495) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 850 (#652) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -6.6 (#229) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -10.1 (#512) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.024 (#601) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.156 (#380) | NetEff -12.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.069 (#611) | AdjNet -22.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.067 (#612) | AdjNet -22.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.226 (#605) | AdjO 57.5 | AdjD 71.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.270 (#629) | AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 69.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.255 (#559) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.247 (#572) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 805 (#466) | RD 107 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Slippery Rock | L | 78 - 83 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Clarion | L | 71 - 88 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Fla. Southern | L | 59 - 71 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Lynn | L | 64 - 72 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Walsh | L | 56 - 71 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Hillsdale | L | 50 - 54 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | Ursuline | W | 68 - 49 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Malone | L | 51 - 72 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ | D'Youville | L | 50 - 60 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Tiffin | W | 65 - 62 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Ohio Dominican | L | 53 - 83 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Findlay | L | 59 - 70 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Northwood | L | 53 - 79 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Thomas More | L | 77 - 82 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Cedarville | W | 73 - 68 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Ursuline | L | 61 - 82 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Walsh | L | 44 - 88 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gracie Lyon | - | 15 | 21.3 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 9.5 | 8.1 | - | - | - | 46.5 | 28.6 | 45.7 | - | 49.0 | 48.6 |
| Nina Shaffer | - | 9 | 26.2 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 9.0 | 3.8 | - | - | - | 38.3 | 32.5 | 76.5 | - | 49.7 | 46.3 |
| Noel Weathers | - | 7 | 16.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 66.7 | - | 55.9 | 50.0 |
| Kylie Maxwell | - | 17 | 21.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 26 | 1.2 | 17.5 | 44.6 | 41.2 | 56.5 | 2.45 | 49.9 | 48.4 |
| Sophie Chipps | - | 17 | 17.6 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.6 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 40.7 | 86.1 | - | 58.1 | 48.5 |
| Emma Fouch | - | 17 | 19.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | - | - | - | 42.3 | 34.8 | 76.9 | - | 56.0 | 53.5 |
| Jaicee Wallace | - | 17 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | - | - | - | 41.2 | 20.0 | 54.8 | - | 45.4 | 42.5 |
| Riley Montagner | - | 16 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 5.4 | -0.9 | - | - | - | 26.4 | 24.5 | 73.3 | - | 37.4 | 33.9 |
| Megan Mares | - | 17 | 14.9 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | - | - | - | 36.7 | 28.6 | 45.2 | - | 39.9 | 38.0 |
| Marcela Rodriguez | - | 16 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 0.8 | - | - | - | 27.3 | 19.0 | 100.0 | - | 35.2 | 32.5 |
| Delani Robinson | - | 16 | 10.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 0.1 | - | - | - | 30.4 | 25.0 | 55.6 | - | 41.7 | 40.2 |
| Sydney Shocklee | - | 17 | 21.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | - | - | - | 32.7 | 21.1 | 63.6 | - | 39.9 | 36.7 |
| Micheala Dean-Dunn | - | 13 | 13.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 30.3 | 8.3 | 87.5 | - | 38.3 | 31.8 |
| Melanie Alvarenga | - | 16 | 8.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.5 | - | - | - | 48.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 54.3 | 54.0 |
| Rylee Szojka | - | 7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | - | 77.3 | 100.0 |
| Lakelyn Joslin | - | 6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | - | - | - | 16.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 21.8 | 16.7 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG