Keystone
Model Outputs
2022-2023
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 997 (#197) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 916 (#278) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1013 (#178) | HCA +54 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -6.0 (#308) | HCA +2.1 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -7.8 (#325) | HCA +2.2 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.528 (#190) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.330 (#287) | AdjNet -6.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.329 (#287) | AdjNet -6.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.399 (#289) | AdjO 73.4 | AdjD 77.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.445 (#258) | AdjO 73.4 | AdjD 75.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.402 (#274) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.411 (#268) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 938 (#249) | RD 118 | GP 28 |
2023 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-07 | @ | Army West Point | L | 65 - 110 |
| 2022-11-11 | @ | SUNY Brockport | L | 78 - 92 |
| 2022-11-15 | @ | Ithaca | L | 80 - 95 |
| 2022-11-17 | vs | SUNY Oneonta | L | 67 - 82 |
| 2022-11-29 | vs | Marywood | L | 92 - 93 |
| 2022-12-01 | vs | Immaculata | W | 78 - 62 |
| 2022-12-09 | @ | Penn St.-Berks | W | 81 - 70 |
| 2022-12-10 | vs | Alfred St. | W | 96 - 73 |
| 2022-12-17 | vs | Moravian | L | 69 - 75 |
| 2022-12-18 | vs | Hood | L | 72 - 96 |
| 2022-12-20 | vs | Wilkes | W | 79 - 73 |
| 2022-12-30 | vs | Drew | L | 68 - 75 |
| 2023-01-04 | vs | Wilson | L | 72 - 77 |
| 2023-01-07 | @ | Valley Forge | W | 105 - 67 |
| 2023-01-11 | @ | Saint Elizabeth | W | 66 - 56 |
| 2023-01-14 | vs | Bryn Athyn | W | 77 - 69 |
| 2023-01-18 | vs | Cairn | W | 90 - 66 |
| 2023-01-21 | @ | Rosemont | L | 76 - 90 |
| 2023-01-25 | @ | Clarks Summit | L | 66 - 84 |
| 2023-01-28 | @ | Wilson | L | 52 - 67 |
| 2023-02-01 | vs | Saint Elizabeth | W | 75 - 70 |
| 2023-02-04 | vs | Valley Forge | W | 84 - 66 |
| 2023-02-08 | @ | Cairn | L | 59 - 77 |
| 2023-02-11 | @ | Bryn Athyn | W | 86 - 75 |
| 2023-02-15 | vs | Clarks Summit | W | 87 - 74 |
| 2023-02-18 | vs | Rosemont | L | 68 - 76 |
| 2023-02-20 | vs | Saint Elizabeth | W | 81 - 69 |
| 2023-02-22 | @ | Cairn | W | 95 - 88 |
| 2023-02-25 | @ | Wilson | L | 68 - 89 |
2023 Roster
No roster data available for this season.