🐻⬇️🏀

Keystone

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Keystone
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 854 (#575) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 773 (#607) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 852 (#720) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -22.4 (#379) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -20.3 (#690) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.345 (#570) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -24.5 More → 0.056 (#694) AdjNet -24.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -24.9 More → 0.052 (#694) AdjNet -24.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.1 | AdjD 87.4 More → 0.159 (#689) AdjO 69.1 | AdjD 87.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 83.8 More → 0.255 (#710) AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 83.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.145 (#714) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.158 (#715) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 23 More → 755 (#590) RD 98 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ VTSU Lyndon W 88 - 80
2025-11-09 vs VTSU Randolph L 65 - 76
2025-11-12 @ Marywood L 64 - 79
2025-11-15 @ Wilkes L 65 - 97
2025-11-18 @ SUNY Cobleskill L 56 - 74
2025-11-22 @ Utica L 69 - 86
2025-12-03 @ Cairn L 75 - 94
2025-12-06 vs Penn St. Harrisburg L 60 - 83
2025-12-13 vs SUNY Potsdam W 102 - 76
2025-12-15 vs Misericordia L 62 - 88
2025-12-16 vs Nazareth L 74 - 83
2025-12-18 vs Saint Elizabeth L 73 - 75
2025-12-30 vs Alvernia L 70 - 85
2026-01-03 @ Valley Forge W 84 - 76
2026-01-07 vs Penn College L 77 - 80
2026-01-10 @ Lancaster Bible L 74 - 96
2026-01-17 vs Gallaudet W 109 - 69
2026-01-21 @ Penn St. Brandywine L 82 - 95
2026-01-24 vs Notre Dame (MD) W 98 - 86
2026-01-28 vs Penn St.-Berks L 78 - 86
2026-01-31 @ St. Mary's (MD) L 54 - 67
2026-02-04 vs SUNY ESF W 95 - 93
2026-02-07 @ Wilson L 73 - 81

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Antonio Franco - 1 36.4 28.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 15.0 20.0 - - - 46.7 40.0 90.9 - 70.6 60.0
Patrick Emery - 1 40.0 17.0 14.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 10.0 23.0 - - - 70.0 0.0 60.0 - 69.7 70.0
Jden Golding - 22 33.7 16.9 6.2 3.2 1.1 0.1 3.1 13.9 10.5 -77 -4.1 -17.9 45.2 32.0 70.2 -1.07 52.4 47.9
Andrew Cox - 1 35.2 15.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 11.0 - - - 62.5 50.0 100.0 - 84.5 81.2
PJ Murphy - 22 26.2 12.9 3.8 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.9 11.7 6.6 -115 -6.1 -34.6 38.8 29.2 79.4 0.63 49.5 45.2
Ahmodrion Jones - 22 32.2 12.6 5.8 3.1 0.9 0.3 2.9 12.8 7.0 -139 -7.3 -40.3 33.7 25.3 75.9 -0.62 43.2 37.4
Mikey Sellin - 1 12.0 12.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 - - - 83.3 66.7 0 - 100.0 100.0
Nathaniel Sletvold - 1 24.7 11.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 10.0 6.0 - - - 40.0 33.3 100.0 - 50.6 45.0
Josh Brown - 12 33.3 9.7 5.3 1.5 1.1 0.2 2.2 8.1 7.5 -117 -10.6 -74.6 44.3 33.3 60.0 -1.16 52.6 50.5
Kamdyn Ayers - 16 29.8 8.5 3.1 4.2 2.1 0.1 3.2 5.8 8.9 -70 -5.0 -34.4 58.1 33.3 59.5 1.03 61.0 59.7
Ben Zito - 1 24.1 8.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 7.0 - - - 80.0 0 0 - 80.0 80.0
Tyler Ditton - 22 15.9 7.1 1.4 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5.9 2.5 -36 -1.9 -18.4 40.0 35.4 72.0 -1.2 55.3 53.1
Demetrius Thomas - 19 21.7 5.3 6.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 1.0 3.8 8.4 -44 -2.8 -20.2 55.6 25.0 48.7 -0.16 56.1 56.2
Conor Patton - 21 10.5 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.6 4.2 -33 -1.6 -24.1 67.6 40.0 70.0 0.7 72.4 70.6
Jeramiah Maxwell-Lawus - 21 11.3 2.5 2.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 2.5 3.5 -43 -2.3 -26.1 41.5 0.0 37.5 -1.78 41.7 41.5
Kieran Hefferan - 1 15.7 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Lukas Stone - 3 7.7 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 -5 -2.5 -9.7 50.0 50.0 0 -1.85 75.0 75.0
Shateek Humbert - 6 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.0 - - - 28.6 0.0 50.0 - 31.7 28.6
Derek Rivera - 11 6.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 -0.5 -33 -3.3 -137.7 15.4 9.1 0 0.62 19.2 19.2
James Henck - 1 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Ian Howard - 1 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Ian Holland - 1 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Emerson Johnson - 1 4.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 129 7.2 116.7 0 0 0 1.3 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG