Jefferson
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1081 (#96) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1077 (#123) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1031 (#193) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -2.2 (#200) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.0 (#366) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.911 (#179) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.758 (#208) | NetEff +8.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.734 (#306) | AdjNet +8.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.743 (#307) | AdjNet +9.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.619 (#316) | AdjO 66.9 | AdjD 61.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.548 (#262) | AdjO 65.0 | AdjD 62.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.533 (#328) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.545 (#312) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1045 (#202) | RD 97 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Queens (NY) | W | 82 - 57 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Molloy | W | 70 - 55 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | East Stroudsburg | W | 64 - 49 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Kutztown | W | 50 - 48 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Felician | L | 51 - 81 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | West Chester | L | 54 - 58 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Wilmington (DE) | W | 74 - 43 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Bridgeport | W | 63 - 61 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | Georgian Court | L | 64 - 74 |
| 2025-12-19 | @ | Millersville | L | 65 - 80 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | St. Thomas Aquinas | W | 58 - 43 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Bloomsburg | W | 55 - 33 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Post | W | 62 - 45 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Caldwell | W | 69 - 61 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Goldey-Beacom | W | 73 - 51 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Dominican (NY) | W | 61 - 44 |
| 2026-01-20 | @ | Chestnut Hill | L | 69 - 75 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Felician | W | 59 - 52 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Wilmington (DE) | W | 66 - 51 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Bridgeport | L | 60 - 67 |
| 2026-02-03 | vs | Georgian Court | W | 81 - 52 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Post | L | 99 - 104 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Spratt | - | 22 | 37.4 | 20.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 16.2 | 13.5 | 87 | 3.8 | 13.3 | 48.5 | 39.1 | 73.6 | 1.39 | 54.9 | 51.0 |
| Gabby Recinto | - | 21 | 33.3 | 15.4 | 8.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 83 | 3.8 | 13.1 | 43.2 | 23.5 | 70.1 | 4.16 | 49.1 | 44.6 |
| Carolyn Sipprell | - | 21 | 31.3 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 40 | 1.8 | 6.1 | 35.0 | 25.6 | 73.3 | 1.36 | 41.6 | 38.1 |
| Tori Nigro | - | 22 | 35.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 86 | 3.7 | 11.9 | 32.0 | 30.8 | 60.6 | 0.35 | 39.0 | 33.3 |
| Jordyn Thomas | - | 22 | 24.7 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 81 | 3.5 | 17.7 | 43.2 | 0.0 | 85.0 | -0.12 | 47.2 | 43.2 |
| Ana Pellecchia | - | 22 | 16.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 39 | 1.7 | 15.6 | 31.4 | 27.4 | 68.4 | -0.84 | 41.2 | 38.6 |
| Caleigh Sperling | - | 22 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 27 | 1.2 | 19.7 | 38.3 | 27.3 | 78.6 | -0.16 | 45.9 | 43.1 |
| Kylie Mulholland | - | 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | - | - | - | 60.0 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.14 | 70.0 | 70.0 |
| Jade Marquez | - | 21 | 9.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 9 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 37.1 | 66.7 | 47.4 | -2.79 | 42.7 | 40.0 |
| Kaci Mikulski | - | 16 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 18 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 21.6 | 13.8 | 100.0 | -0.62 | 27.7 | 25.5 |
| Kylie Mullholland | - | 2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -3 | -1.5 | -22.5 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 0 | -0.17 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Carlie Lapinski | - | 15 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -3 | -0.2 | -5.2 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 37.5 | -0.51 | 22.6 | 16.7 |
| Kylie Mulhlolland | - | 6 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.5 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG