Indiana State - 2026-2027

2026-2027 Team Stats (5 games)

72.4

PPG

79.4

Opp

-7.0

Margin

38.5%

FG%

26.6%

3P%

76.7%

FT%

38.2

RPG

11.8

APG

17.2

TO

76.1

Est. poss./game

66.9

Adj PPG

72.3

Adj Opp PPG

#264

Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 785 (returning production + recruiting): last season 870, returning -46, transfers -40, freshmen +0 More →	818 (#276)	Preseason prior 785 (returning production + recruiting): last season 870, returning -46, transfers -40, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +169 elo More →	880 (#269)	HCA +169 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +169 elo More →	883 (#268)	HCA +169 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +1.7 More →	-7.5 (#235)	HCA +1.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +1.6 More →	-7.5 (#235)	HCA +1.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.202 (#243)	-
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -8.0 More →	0.276 (#273)	AdjNet -8.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -6.3 More →	0.299 (#252)	AdjNet -6.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.9 \| AdjD 72.3 More →	0.333 (#264)	AdjO 66.9 \| AdjD 72.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.8 \| AdjD 72.3 More →	0.333 (#265)	AdjO 66.8 \| AdjD 72.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.328 (#245)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.328 (#245)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 160 \| GP 5 More →	881 (#259)	RD 160 \| GP 5
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More →	0.268 (#261)	Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

Rank through the season

League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.

Recency Ensemble Log Adjusted Elo Points Off/Def Recency

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2026-11-02	@	Northern Illinois Huskies	L	71 - 76
2026-11-06	@	Seton Hall Pirates	L	56 - 74
2026-11-08	@	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	L	76 - 107
2026-11-10	vs	IU Indianapolis Jaguars	W	86 - 74
2026-11-13	vs	Wright State Raiders	W	73 - 66
2026-11-17	vs	Bellarmine Knights	-	Preview
2026-11-19	@	Southeast Missouri State Redhawks	-	Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Show Alumni If everyone stayed four years

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Saroiya Ajomale	F	5	22.6	13.2	3.4	1.2	1.2	2.6	1.6	11.6	8.4	-14	5	-2.8	-4.9	41.4	26.3	86.7	0.33	51.1	45.7
Ashley Singhateh	G	5	29.4	10.8	3.8	3.6	1.6	0.4	2.4	7.8	10.0	-16	5	-3.2	-4.3	35.9	50.0	84.6	0.36	53.5	41.0
Kristen McMillan	F	5	22.2	10.0	6.6	0.4	1.0	0.4	0.6	6.0	11.8	25	5	5.0	9.1	63.3	33.3	90.9	1.48	71.8	66.7
Aaliyah Youngblood	G	5	28.4	9.2	3.6	2.4	3.0	0.6	3.8	11.2	3.8	-21	5	-4.2	-5.9	28.6	16.7	64.7	-0.55	36.2	31.2
Natalia Williams	G	4	16.2	7.0	2.8	1.2	1.2	0.2	2.0	6.2	4.2	-25	4	-6.2	-15.6	52.0	33.3	33.3	-2.53	53.2	54.0
Jayci Allen	G	5	24.6	7.0	2.4	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.4	6.8	3.2	-50	5	-10.0	-16.2	32.4	29.6	83.3	-4.57	47.8	44.1
Amerie Flowers	F	5	14.2	6.2	6.2	0.2	0.4	0.0	1.8	6.0	5.2	-35	5	-7.0	-19.3	40.0	0	63.6	-3.75	44.5	40.0
Karsen Marshall	G	5	14.0	4.2	1.6	0.8	0.6	0.6	0.4	4.2	3.2	7	5	1.4	4.0	33.3	33.3	66.7	-0.12	47.0	45.2
Crystal Schultz	G	4	8.2	3.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	0.0	2.0	3.2	-1.2	-36	4	-9.0	-43.8	30.8	0.0	100.0	-4.86	40.7	30.8
Heaven Shockley	F	4	8.8	2.2	1.8	0.0	0.2	0.8	0.5	1.8	2.8	-4	4	-1.0	-4.6	57.1	0	50.0	-0.76	57.1	57.1
Eanae Dagons	G	5	16.0	2.0	1.8	1.6	1.2	0.2	1.8	3.4	1.6	-8	5	-1.6	-4.0	17.6	14.3	60.0	-0.82	26.0	20.6
Jazelle Young	F	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Zoë Dispennette	G	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Allison Mcgill	ATH	2	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	-0.5	2	2	1.0	36.9	0	0	0	-0.64	0	0
Ariana Peagler	G	3	2.0	0.0	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.7	0	3	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	-1.36	0	0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

330 located field-goal attempts in 5 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Points: who the team's points here most likely come from

Misses: who misses most here

Saroiya AjomaleKristen McMillanAaliyah YoungbloodAshley SinghatehJayci AllenAmerie FlowersKarsen Marshall

Zone	FGM-FGA	FG%	Pts	Top scorer	Runner-up	Most misses	Runner-up
Restricted area	43-71	60.6	86	Kristen McMillan 26% (22 pts)	Aaliyah Youngblood 16% (14 pts)	Aaliyah Youngblood 29% (8 misses)	Ashley Singhateh 21% (6 misses)
Paint (non-RA)	41-109	37.6	82	Amerie Flowers 20% (16 pts)	Natalia Williams 17% (14 pts)	Aaliyah Youngblood 24% (16 misses)	Amerie Flowers 18% (12 misses)
Mid-range left	5-18	27.8	10	Saroiya Ajomale 40% (4 pts)	Crystal Schultz 20% (2 pts)	Saroiya Ajomale 31% (4 misses)	Crystal Schultz 15% (2 misses)
Mid-range center	5-9	55.6	10	Aaliyah Youngblood 20% (2 pts)	Amerie Flowers 20% (2 pts)	Aaliyah Youngblood 25% (1 misses)	Eanae Dagons 25% (1 misses)
Mid-range right	4-14	28.6	8	Saroiya Ajomale 50% (4 pts)	Ashley Singhateh 25% (2 pts)	Ashley Singhateh 30% (3 misses)	Saroiya Ajomale 30% (3 misses)
Left corner 3	3-8	37.5	9	Aaliyah Youngblood 67% (6 pts)	Jayci Allen 33% (3 pts)	Aaliyah Youngblood 60% (3 misses)	Jayci Allen 40% (2 misses)
Right corner 3	3-10	30.0	9	Ashley Singhateh 33% (3 pts)	Jayci Allen 33% (3 pts)	Jayci Allen 29% (2 misses)	Saroiya Ajomale 29% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left	13-39	33.3	39	Jayci Allen 46% (18 pts)	Karsen Marshall 23% (9 pts)	Jayci Allen 35% (9 misses)	Saroiya Ajomale 23% (6 misses)
Above-break 3 center	1-11	9.1	3	Saroiya Ajomale 100% (3 pts)	-	Aaliyah Youngblood 30% (3 misses)	Eanae Dagons 30% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 right	9-41	22.0	27	Saroiya Ajomale 44% (12 pts)	Karsen Marshall 22% (6 pts)	Karsen Marshall 22% (7 misses)	Aaliyah Youngblood 16% (5 misses)