Ill. Springfield
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 975 (#322) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 937 (#372) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 947 (#562) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.5 (#173) | HCA +2.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +9.4 (#221) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.339 (#428) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.650 (#229) | NetEff +4.6 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.029 (#433) | NetEff -25.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.612 (#349) | AdjNet +3.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.636 (#344) | AdjNet +4.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.550 (#361) | AdjO 71.1 | AdjD 68.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.644 (#125) | AdjO 67.5 | AdjD 61.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.633 (#247) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.629 (#244) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 935 (#310) | RD 97 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | vs | Westminster (UT) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Hillsdale | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Tiffin | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Purdue Northwest | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Ferris St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | St. Francis (IL) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Mo.-St. Louis | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | William Jewell | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | McKendree | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Maryville (MO) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-14 | vs | Roosevelt | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Wis.-Parkside | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | UIndy | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Truman St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Rockhurst | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Southwest Baptist | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Drury | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Lincoln (MO) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Mo.-St. Louis | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Maryville (MO) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | McKendree | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Rice | - | 20 | 28.3 | 14.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 61 | 2.7 | 10.0 | 36.8 | 39.0 | 77.9 | 3.94 | 49.0 | 44.1 |
| Julia Mingus | - | 20 | 28.0 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 50 | 2.3 | 9.2 | 44.8 | 48.9 | 85.5 | 0.92 | 62.7 | 57.3 |
| Kennedy Osterman | - | 20 | 29.6 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 32 | 1.5 | 5.6 | 39.0 | 35.9 | 74.3 | 0.11 | 50.5 | 48.2 |
| Libby Blythe | - | 15 | 17.9 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | -19 | -1.2 | -6.1 | 45.7 | 35.4 | 75.0 | -2.11 | 57.5 | 54.9 |
| Molly Knight | - | 20 | 22.4 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | -10 | -0.5 | -2.1 | 34.4 | 31.9 | 80.6 | -1.77 | 45.6 | 40.1 |
| Allysia McDaniel | - | 20 | 15.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.7 | -45 | -2.0 | -11.7 | 50.8 | 0 | 75.0 | -2.64 | 54.3 | 50.8 |
| Alandyn Simmons | - | 18 | 11.6 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 41 | 2.0 | 28.5 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 46.7 | -0.83 | 50.3 | 50.0 |
| Paula Strzelecki | - | 18 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 16 | 0.8 | 9.1 | 56.9 | 0 | 62.5 | -0.12 | 57.8 | 56.9 |
| Allison Wheeler | - | 20 | 22.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 9 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 36.2 | 25.7 | 66.7 | 0.87 | 45.3 | 44.0 |
| T McLaren | - | 1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Makenna Yeager | - | 9 | 17.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 66 | 5.5 | 39.5 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 2.2 | 41.0 | 37.5 |
| Brynn Tabeling | - | 16 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 29.6 | 33.3 | 60.0 | -0.85 | 39.4 | 37.0 |
| Brooke Spychalski | - | 12 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | -1 | -0.1 | -5.3 | 42.9 | 33.3 | 20.0 | -1.51 | 46.3 | 50.0 |
| Tatianna McLaren | - | 1 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG