🐻⬇️🏀

Hope

Also known as: Hope
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1137 (#35) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1308 (#17) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1194 (#28) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +34.0 (#3) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +26.4 (#89) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.973 (#171) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +30.9 More → 0.983 (#98) NetEff +30.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +38.7 More → 0.989 (#117) AdjNet +38.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +38.4 More → 0.990 (#122) AdjNet +38.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 78.1 | AdjD 53.7 More → 0.902 (#120) AdjO 78.1 | AdjD 53.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 73.9 | AdjD 51.1 More → 0.888 (#23) AdjO 73.9 | AdjD 51.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.931 (#46) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.930 (#37) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 111 | GP 22 More → 1293 (#27) RD 111 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Wis.-La Crosse W 82 - 61
2025-11-08 @ UW-River Falls W 58 - 41
2025-11-14 vs Colorado Col. W 71 - 47
2025-11-15 @ Ohio Wesleyan L 62 - 65
2025-11-18 vs Alma W 85 - 59
2025-11-21 vs Carthage W 80 - 52
2025-11-22 vs Ill. Wesleyan W 76 - 73
2025-12-12 @ La Verne W 64 - 62
2025-12-13 @ Kalamazoo W 93 - 40
2025-12-17 @ Oglethorpe W 68 - 57
2026-01-10 vs Olivet W 104 - 43
2026-01-14 @ Adrian W 84 - 65
2026-01-17 vs St. Mary's (IN) W 90 - 48
2026-01-21 vs Kalamazoo W 74 - 42
2026-01-24 @ Calvin W 57 - 55
2026-01-28 @ Albion L 54 - 60
2026-01-31 vs Adrian W 88 - 46
2026-02-07 @ Alma W 69 - 62

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Nicole Chuang - 1 36.9 19.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 16.0 7.0 - - - 37.5 42.9 100.0 - 57.8 56.2
Leah Richards - 17 23.6 11.8 7.5 0.8 1.8 0.5 0.9 8.4 13.1 213 10.1 50.2 51.0 32.1 76.3 5.06 59.2 54.2
Anna Richards - 17 26.6 11.6 5.8 2.6 1.7 0.2 2.0 10.2 9.6 52 2.6 12.7 42.0 45.1 62.2 -1.49 50.8 48.6
Sydney Vis - 17 20.6 10.7 4.2 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.9 8.9 7.7 134 6.4 33.2 40.8 28.6 75.9 1.84 51.3 45.4
Maddie Petroelje - 17 23.3 10.5 3.4 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.7 7.1 8.4 159 7.6 35.1 48.8 46.8 82.8 2.29 66.5 63.6
Andrea Javier - 1 37.4 9.0 6.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 11.0 6.0 - - - 27.3 33.3 100.0 - 37.9 31.8
Jada Long - 1 19.2 8.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 10.0 3.0 - - - 30.0 33.3 0 - 40.0 40.0
Angelina De Leon - 1 24.4 8.0 7.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 6.0 - - - 50.0 0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Amira Austin - 1 28.4 8.0 13.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 13.0 7.0 -21 -1.2 -12.8 30.8 0.0 0.0 -0.4 28.8 30.8
Natalie Acuna - 1 17.3 7.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 10.0 - - - 66.7 0.0 75.0 - 73.5 66.7
Terin Maynard - 17 21.9 5.8 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.0 1.6 6.4 3.1 139 6.6 36.3 32.1 19.2 61.5 1.86 39.2 34.4
Gillian Sorrelle - 11 8.7 4.6 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.3 3.9 2.7 60 4.3 202.5 41.9 28.6 68.8 1.13 51.0 46.5
Josie DeSmit - 17 15.4 4.3 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.0 88 4.2 48.7 41.5 36.8 75.0 0.94 50.7 46.9
Chloe Brunsberg - 17 12.9 4.2 2.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.5 3.5 3.4 21 1.0 15.9 43.3 36.8 85.7 0.9 57.1 55.0
Katie Blazei - 15 10.1 3.8 2.9 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.3 2.3 4.5 -4 -0.2 -4.3 58.8 0 56.7 -3.15 60.4 58.8
Lauren Leach - 17 17.6 3.2 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.8 2.3 4.6 71 3.4 36.5 46.2 43.8 47.8 -2.73 55.0 55.1
Aliyah Gonzalez - 1 24.8 3.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 55 3.9 99.3 33.3 0.0 50.0 0.46 38.7 33.3
Bayli Stewart - 17 8.7 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.6 2.8 1.8 61 2.9 40.8 37.5 11.1 50.0 5.04 40.9 38.5
Emma Yakey - 9 6.0 2.4 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.9 24 2.0 131.2 57.1 66.7 0.0 -0.24 76.2 78.6
Grayson Guy - 12 7.5 2.1 2.6 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.8 2.2 2.1 27 1.9 37.7 38.5 0 71.4 1.13 43.0 38.5
Jamelia Coleman - 1 11.6 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 33.3 0.0 0 0.59 33.3 33.3
Lily Miller - 9 5.9 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.3 10 0.8 44.4 57.1 0.0 0 -1.98 57.1 57.1
Morgan Miller - 9 7.0 1.8 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.9 2.4 0.1 58 3.4 34.5 27.3 11.1 100.0 1.71 34.3 29.5
Sarah LaPrairie - 2 5.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -9 -4.5 -64.7 50.0 0.0 0 -1.0 50.0 50.0
Sydney Bode - 9 6.3 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.3 2.1 24 2.0 84.8 8.3 0.0 66.7 0.22 20.5 8.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG