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Holy Cross

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Holy Cross Crusaders, Holy Cross
Program History
Coach: Dave Paulsen

2026-2027 Team Stats (2 games)

62.5
PPG
99.0
Opp
-36.5
Margin
36.0%
FG%
31.1%
3P%
67.4%
FT%
33.0
RPG
13.5
APG
13.5
TO
70.5
Est. poss./game
64.7
Adj PPG
77.1
Adj Opp PPG
#359
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 699 (returning production + recruiting): last season 799, returning -26, transfers -74, freshmen -0 More → 682 (#351) Preseason prior 699 (returning production + recruiting): last season 799, returning -26, transfers -74, freshmen -0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 832 (#337) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +274 elo More → 909 (#339) HCA +274 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +11.1 More → -15.6 (#355) HCA +11.1
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +11.1 More → -15.3 (#355) HCA +11.1
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.066 (#359) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -22.4 More → 0.197 (#360) AdjNet -22.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.3 More → 0.194 (#360) AdjNet -22.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 77.1 More → 0.246 (#359) AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 77.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 77.1 More → 0.286 (#360) AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 77.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.211 (#360) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.218 (#359) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 194 | GP 2 More → 788 (#353) RD 194 | GP 2
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. More → Legacy estimate Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-03 @ Rhode Island Rams L 59 - 103
2026-11-06 @ Villanova Wildcats L 66 - 95
2026-11-11 vs Furman Paladins - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Tristen Wilson Tristen Wilson G 2 24.5 13.0 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 6.0 9.0 - - - - 58.3 0.0 75.0 - 68.3 58.3
Chuck Hare Chuck Hare F 2 23.5 10.0 8.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.0 7.0 11.5 - - - - 57.1 0.0 57.1 - 58.5 57.1
Kole Hanson Kole Hanson G 2 23.0 8.0 2.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.5 3.5 - - - - 28.6 36.4 0.0 - 37.3 38.1
Jude Haigh Jude Haigh F 2 20.0 6.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.5 1.5 - - - - 36.4 44.4 0 - 54.5 54.5
John St. Germain III John St. Germain III G 2 17.5 6.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 -0.5 - - - - 30.8 40.0 66.7 - 41.9 38.5
Arius Alijosius Arius Alijosius G 2 17.5 5.0 3.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 - - - - 37.5 42.9 100.0 - 59.2 56.2
Elijah Flowers Elijah Flowers F 2 10.0 4.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 5.0 1.5 - - - - 30.0 16.7 50.0 - 38.3 35.0
Jaelon Germany Jaelon Germany G 2 20.5 4.5 0.5 3.5 0.0 0.5 1.5 4.5 3.0 - - - - 33.3 0.0 75.0 - 41.8 33.3
Bradyn Foster Bradyn Foster F 2 11.5 3.0 2.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.0 2.5 - - - - 25.0 0.0 100.0 - 33.8 25.0
Aidan Richard Aidan Richard F 2 28.5 1.5 3.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 - - - - 0.0 0.0 75.0 - 19.3 0.0
Liam Rigney Liam Rigney F 2 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 - - - - 50.0 0 0.0 - 41.0 50.0
Ethan Clark Ethan Clark F 2 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Austin Mejia Austin Mejia G 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kosi Mgbejiofor Kosi Mgbejiofor C 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Joe Nugent Joe Nugent F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Declan Ryan Declan Ryan F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

114 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Hare25% Hare33% Hare33% Hare33% Germain50% Hanson50% Alijosius33% Haigh40%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Germain27% Richard18% Wilson100% Hanson67% Germany33% Hanson50% Flowers33% Hanson40% Richard17% Foster17%
Misses: who misses most here

Chuck HareKole HansonTristen WilsonJude HaighJohn St. Germain IIIArius AlijosiusElijah FlowersJaelon GermanyBradyn FosterAidan Richard

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 12-23 52.2 24 Chuck Hare 25% (6 pts) Tristen Wilson 25% (6 pts) John St. Germain III 27% (3 misses) Elijah Flowers 18% (2 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 9-26 34.6 18 Chuck Hare 33% (6 pts) Kole Hanson 22% (4 pts) Aidan Richard 18% (3 misses) John St. Germain III 18% (3 misses)
Mid-range left 3-4 75.0 6 Chuck Hare 33% (2 pts) Jaelon Germany 33% (2 pts) Tristen Wilson 100% (1 misses) -
Mid-range center 0-3 0.0 0 - - Kole Hanson 67% (2 misses) Aidan Richard 33% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 3-12 25.0 6 Chuck Hare 33% (2 pts) Jaelon Germany 33% (2 pts) Jaelon Germany 33% (3 misses) Kole Hanson 22% (2 misses)
Left corner 3 0-4 0.0 0 - - Kole Hanson 50% (2 misses) Arius Alijosius 25% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 2-8 25.0 6 John St. Germain III 50% (3 pts) Jude Haigh 50% (3 pts) Elijah Flowers 33% (2 misses) Jude Haigh 33% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left 4-14 28.6 12 Kole Hanson 50% (6 pts) Arius Alijosius 25% (3 pts) Kole Hanson 40% (4 misses) Arius Alijosius 20% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 center 3-9 33.3 9 Arius Alijosius 33% (3 pts) Elijah Flowers 33% (3 pts) Aidan Richard 17% (1 misses) Arius Alijosius 17% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 right 5-11 45.5 15 Jude Haigh 40% (6 pts) Kole Hanson 40% (6 pts) Bradyn Foster 17% (1 misses) Chuck Hare 17% (1 misses)