Hollins
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1117 (#54) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1161 (#79) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1016 (#321) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +5.8 (#129) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +9.4 (#214) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.581 (#420) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.900 (#157) | NetEff +14.2 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.024 (#540) | NetEff -26.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.228 (#478) | AdjNet -10.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.215 (#478) | AdjNet -10.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.333 (#480) | AdjO 56.7 | AdjD 64.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.668 (#162) | AdjO 62.5 | AdjD 54.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.732 (#181) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.725 (#186) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1127 (#124) | RD 105 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Brenau | W | 66 - 65 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Agnes Scott | W | 59 - 44 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Centre | L | 44 - 67 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Eastern | W | 65 - 51 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Warren Wilson | W | 87 - 34 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | William Peace | W | 64 - 56 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Lynchburg | W | 70 - 67 |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | Virginia-Lynchburg | W | 80 - 58 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Hood | W | 74 - 29 |
| 2025-12-31 | vs | Mary Baldwin | W | 91 - 25 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Va. Wesleyan | W | 69 - 63 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Wash. & Lee | L | 61 - 78 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Bridgewater (VA) | L | 33 - 55 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Randolph | W | 51 - 26 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Averett | W | 76 - 67 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Guilford | L | 45 - 55 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | East. Mennonite | W | 84 - 51 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Roanoke | L | 57 - 66 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Shenandoah | L | 56 - 68 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaria Holden | - | 19 | 28.1 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 83 | 3.6 | 20.5 | 39.8 | 32.7 | 62.8 | -1.36 | 47.2 | 43.6 |
| Jacorra Russell | - | 19 | 25.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 50 | 2.4 | 11.9 | 51.5 | 13.3 | 46.7 | -0.21 | 52.1 | 52.0 |
| Sarah Morales | - | 19 | 28.1 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 56 | 2.4 | 12.9 | 38.4 | 28.6 | 60.9 | 0.05 | 43.0 | 39.4 |
| Gracie Huffard | - | 19 | 23.9 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 37.9 | 0.0 | 76.7 | 1.1 | 42.1 | 37.9 |
| Noelani Carter | - | 19 | 27.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 78 | 3.5 | 17.9 | 29.1 | 25.0 | 56.5 | 2.56 | 36.8 | 29.6 |
| Missy Hazard | - | 19 | 19.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 108 | 4.7 | 41.3 | 29.1 | 30.4 | 70.0 | 0.27 | 44.2 | 42.7 |
| Erin Allen | - | 19 | 18.0 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 9 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 37.4 | 0.0 | 52.9 | -0.21 | 40.6 | 37.4 |
| Ariana Gutierrez | - | 17 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 120 | 5.7 | 78.1 | 26.9 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -0.3 | 35.6 | 35.8 |
| Abby Kingery | - | 19 | 15.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 72 | 3.4 | 30.5 | 38.6 | 30.4 | 56.2 | 2.45 | 49.0 | 46.6 |
| Kennedy Leggett | - | 17 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 76 | 4.0 | 157.5 | 35.7 | 25.0 | 69.2 | 1.34 | 44.0 | 39.3 |
| Grayson Alfano | - | 2 | 9.8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | -7 | -1.8 | -18.4 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.79 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG