Henderson St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1190 (#36) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1220 (#33) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 966 (#528) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +19.5 (#22) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +9.5 (#220) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.491 (#366) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.811 (#176) | NetEff +12.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.887 (#214) | AdjNet +17.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.899 (#211) | AdjNet +18.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.754 (#209) | AdjO 76.7 | AdjD 64.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.526 (#296) | AdjO 69.1 | AdjD 67.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.666 (#218) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.635 (#237) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1056 (#184) | RD 103 | GP 19 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Tex. A&M-Texarkana | W | 85 - 81 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Mississippi Col. | W | 83 - 67 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Northeastern St. | W | 71 - 64 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Rogers St. | W | 75 - 59 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Southeastern Okla. | W | 91 - 58 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | East Central | W | 73 - 66 |
| 2025-12-11 | vs | Arkansas Tech | L | 72 - 89 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Harding | W | 69 - 66 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Ark.-Monticello | W | 76 - 41 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Northwestern Okla. | L | 47 - 68 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Southern Nazarene | W | 96 - 85 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Okla. Baptist | W | 78 - 61 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Ouachita Baptist | L | 56 - 89 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Southern Ark. | L | 0 - 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | East Central | L | 65 - 73 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Southeastern Okla. | L | 67 - 91 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Northwestern Okla. | L | 59 - 73 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Southwestern Okla. | L | 57 - 73 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Cardenas | - | 17 | 32.2 | 18.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 14.5 | 9.4 | 50 | 2.8 | 17.0 | 39.8 | 33.8 | 80.0 | -0.39 | 52.3 | 44.7 |
| Brynlee Huggins | - | 17 | 33.3 | 13.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 47 | 2.6 | 17.1 | 38.6 | 36.2 | 67.6 | -1.44 | 49.5 | 47.4 |
| Grayson Fairless | - | 17 | 31.4 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 7.9 | 14.6 | -20 | -1.1 | -7.7 | 48.1 | 0.0 | 84.1 | -1.18 | 56.2 | 48.1 |
| Jayla Lewis | - | 15 | 16.3 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | -6 | -0.4 | -3.5 | 41.3 | 50.0 | 91.4 | -0.56 | 60.8 | 48.9 |
| Macy Willis | - | 16 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | -13 | -0.8 | -9.7 | 43.2 | 45.5 | 77.8 | -2.23 | 51.7 | 46.3 |
| Riley Samples | - | 16 | 20.2 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 48 | 3.0 | 37.3 | 27.8 | 19.6 | 84.6 | -0.89 | 39.9 | 32.8 |
| Marlee Raby | - | 16 | 17.8 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 5.1 | 2.8 | -32 | -2.0 | -16.8 | 34.6 | 7.7 | 76.5 | -1.81 | 39.6 | 35.2 |
| Sam Basson | - | 17 | 26.7 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 52 | 2.9 | 24.8 | 24.7 | 23.7 | 83.3 | -2.63 | 35.8 | 33.8 |
| Kadee Keaster | - | 10 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 52 | 4.7 | 1579.7 | 40.9 | 45.5 | 100.0 | 0.19 | 56.8 | 52.3 |
| Brooklyn Howell | - | 16 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 8 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 61.5 | 0 | 55.6 | -2.25 | 61.9 | 61.5 |
| Kara Hart | - | 8 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | -9 | -1.1 | -30.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 83.3 | 1.06 | 68.7 | 0.0 |
| Kinzie Searcy | - | 4 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Lillie Cole | - | 1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG